The Chop Shop Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Impact Drill
1x $3.87
Seabird
1x $4.11
Blue Tac
1x $0.03
Grey Smoke
1x $0.04
Storm Camo
2x $0.04
Blue Blast
3x $0.04
↓
Possible Outputs
Night
6.7% $18.33
Urban Rubble
6.7% $18.32
Para Green
6.7% $12.36
Ocean Topo
8.9% $0.28
Sky Blue
8.9% $0.14
Naval Shred Camo
8.9% $0.13
Max Win
$18.33 (+117.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.36 (-60.1%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+78.5%
Cost
$8.42
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.42
Ask Price EV $3.36 (-60.1%)
Bid Price EV $2.71 (-67.8%)
Ask Profit $-5.06 (-60.1%)
Bid Profit $-5.71 (-67.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.65 (+7.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$5.06
Bid Slippage Buffer -$5.71
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $18.33 (+117.7%)
Worst Case $0.05 (-99.4%)
Volatility +78.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$7.92
Avg Loss -$8.31
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.05 (-99.4%)
Std Dev $6.61
Avg Norm Float 0.2494
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 148h 22m
Oldest Output Price 149h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Impact Drill
—
Battle-Scarred
$3.87 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Seabird
—
Battle-Scarred
$4.11 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Minimal Wear
$0.03 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Grey Smoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Storm Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Blue Blast
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Blue Blast
—
Minimal Wear
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Blue Blast
—
Minimal Wear
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Storm Camo
—
Factory New
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 39S //TOTAL COST $8.42 //ASK PRICE EV $3.36 //BID PRICE EV $2.71 //ASK PROFIT $-5.06 (-60.1%) //BID PROFIT $-5.71 (-67.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $18.33 //VOLATILITY +78.5% //
Possible Outputs · 12
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.7%
$18.33
+$9.91
+117.7%
$16.53
+$8.11
+96.3%
$1.80
9.8%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
6.7%
$18.32
+$9.90
+117.5%
$12.00
+$3.58
+42.5%
$6.32
34.5%
—
WIN
6.7%
$12.36
+$3.94
+46.8%
$11.01
+$2.59
+30.8%
$1.35
10.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.9%
$0.28
-$8.14
-96.7%
$0.23
-$8.19
-97.3%
$0.05
17.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.9%
$0.14
-$8.28
-98.3%
$0.13
-$8.29
-98.5%
$0.01
7.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.9%
$0.13
-$8.29
-98.4%
$0.12
-$8.30
-98.6%
$0.01
10.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.9%
$0.12
-$8.30
-98.6%
$0.10
-$8.32
-98.8%
$0.02
16.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.9%
$0.11
-$8.31
-98.7%
$0.10
-$8.32
-98.8%
$0.01
11.9%
—
NUKE THIN BID
8.9%
$0.07
-$8.35
-99.2%
$0.04
-$8.38
-99.5%
$0.03
42.9%
—
NUKE THIN BID
8.9%
$0.06
-$8.36
-99.3%
$0.04
-$8.38
-99.5%
$0.02
33.3%
—
NUKE THIN BID
8.9%
$0.05
-$8.37
-99.4%
$0.04
-$8.38
-99.5%
$0.01
25.2%
—
NUKE THIN BID
8.9%
$0.05
-$8.37
-99.4%
$0.04
-$8.38
-99.5%
$0.01
25.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-chopshop|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.174587,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"realistic_value": 0.0535,
"optimistic_value": 0.05,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"conservative_value": 0.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:51.767235Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.149646,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7b6d780443fc",
"realistic_value": 0.14,
"optimistic_value": 0.14,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:11.913990Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b6d780443fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.149646,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"realistic_value": 0.12,
"optimistic_value": 0.12,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"conservative_value": 0.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:48.996633Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.149646,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"realistic_value": 0.28,
"optimistic_value": 0.28,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"conservative_value": 0.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:07.593397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.149646,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"realistic_value": 0.1335,
"optimistic_value": 0.13,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:04:03.185070Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.199528,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"realistic_value": 0.06,
"optimistic_value": 0.06,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"conservative_value": 0.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:01:56.292286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.16920747571,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"realistic_value": 0.0535,
"optimistic_value": 0.05,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:22.947124Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.149646,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"realistic_value": 0.1135,
"optimistic_value": 0.11,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:31.783468Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.1870575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"realistic_value": 0.07,
"optimistic_value": 0.07,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:42.874844Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.2445634,
"output_skin_id": "skin-07884f77d452",
"realistic_value": 18.332,
"optimistic_value": 18.01,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Night",
"conservative_value": 16.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Night (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:59:28.290339Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07884f77d452.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.124705,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ee7b966c7ea7",
"realistic_value": 18.316,
"optimistic_value": 17.63,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble",
"conservative_value": 12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:45.077127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee7b966c7ea7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.199528,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78d3855fd66e",
"realistic_value": 12.3605,
"optimistic_value": 12.28,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Para Green",
"conservative_value": 11.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Para Green (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:35.057169Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78d3855fd66e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b60a53695966632fc85c419d",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.87,
"skin_id": "skin-ee71937714b6",
"listing_id": "502856892568442512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Impact Drill (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "M249 | Impact Drill",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee71937714b6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:41.626663Z"
},
{
"price": 4.11,
"skin_id": "skin-5e738163a3b5",
"listing_id": "510738192162476602",
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Seabird (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Seabird",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5e738163a3b5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:42.760415Z"
},
{
"price": 0.03,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "507361289453587801",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:41.888291Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-6d3d5d849392",
"listing_id": "517494222852987790",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6d3d5d849392.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:04:09.013475Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-9973f96c93b5",
"listing_id": "492724538183080161",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9973f96c93b5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:32.309994Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-6c86170a7e6d",
"listing_id": "509613089305714203",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Blue Blast",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6c86170a7e6d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:51.075370Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-6c86170a7e6d",
"listing_id": "503983589620313515",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Blue Blast",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6c86170a7e6d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:51.075370Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-6c86170a7e6d",
"listing_id": "492723793464904845",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Blue Blast",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6c86170a7e6d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:51.075370Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "519746188258350008",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:35.442180Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-9973f96c93b5",
"listing_id": "525375688037580775",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9973f96c93b5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:54.806698Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-chopshop:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New | Para Green 6.7% $186.52 Urban Rubble 6.7% $66.33 Night 6.7% $33.70 Sour Grapes 8.9% $0.93 Ocean Topo 8.9% $0.81 Electric Blue 8.9% $0.79 | $186.52 +1087.3% | $19.59 +24.7% | 20.0% | +292.4% | $15.71 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 10.0% $186.52 Urban Rubble 10.0% $66.33 Night 10.0% $33.70 Sour Grapes 7.8% $0.93 Ocean Topo 7.8% $0.81 Electric Blue 7.8% $0.79 | $186.52 +710.2% | $29.08 +26.3% | 30.0% | +230.1% | $23.02 | — |
The Chop Shop Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 13.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 13.3% $66.33 Night 13.3% $33.70 Sour Grapes 6.7% $0.93 Ocean Topo 6.7% $0.81 Electric Blue 6.7% $0.79 | $186.52 +469.3% | $38.57 +17.7% | 40.0% | +175.6% | $32.76 | — |