The Chop Shop Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New
Inputs
Army Sheen
1x $5.67
Seabird
1x $7.76
Grey Smoke
1x $0.20
Grey Smoke
4x $0.21
Blue Tac
2x $0.28
Storm Camo
1x $0.35
↓
Possible Outputs
Para Green
6.7% $186.52
Urban Rubble
6.7% $66.33
Night
6.7% $33.70
Sour Grapes
8.9% $0.93
Ocean Topo
8.9% $0.81
Electric Blue
8.9% $0.79
Max Win
$186.52 (+1087.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.59 (+24.7%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+305.6%
Cost
$15.71
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.71
Ask Price EV $19.59 (+24.7%)
Bid Price EV $16.26 (+3.5%)
Ask Profit $3.88 (+24.7%)
Bid Profit $0.55 (+3.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.33 (+21.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.88
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.55
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $186.52 (+1087.3%)
Worst Case $0.36 (-97.7%)
Volatility +305.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$79.81
Avg Loss -$15.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.36 (-97.7%)
Std Dev $48.01
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 148h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Army Sheen
—
Minimal Wear
$5.67 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Seabird
—
Field-Tested
$7.76 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Storm Camo
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 22S //TOTAL COST $15.71 //ASK PRICE EV $19.59 //BID PRICE EV $16.26 //ASK PROFIT $3.88 (+24.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.55 (+3.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $186.52 //VOLATILITY +305.6% //
Possible Outputs · 12
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.7%
$186.52
+$170.81
+1087.3%
$155.68
+$139.97
+891.0%
$30.84
16.5%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
6.7%
$66.33
+$50.62
+322.2%
$49.07
+$33.36
+212.3%
$17.26
26.0%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$33.70
+$17.99
+114.5%
$32.43
+$16.72
+106.4%
$1.27
3.8%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.93
-$14.78
-94.1%
$0.80
-$14.91
-94.9%
$0.13
14.0%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.81
-$14.90
-94.8%
$0.77
-$14.94
-95.1%
$0.04
5.1%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.79
-$14.92
-95.0%
$0.72
-$14.99
-95.4%
$0.07
8.5%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.73
-$14.98
-95.4%
$0.66
-$15.05
-95.8%
$0.07
9.3%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.52
-$15.19
-96.7%
$0.48
-$15.23
-96.9%
$0.04
7.7%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.48
-$15.23
-96.9%
$0.43
-$15.28
-97.3%
$0.05
11.1%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.43
-$15.28
-97.3%
$0.42
-$15.29
-97.3%
$0.01
2.3%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.37
-$15.34
-97.6%
$0.36
-$15.35
-97.7%
$0.01
2.7%
—
NUKE
8.9%
$0.36
-$15.35
-97.7%
$0.35
-$15.36
-97.8%
$0.01
2.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-chopshop|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.048866999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"realistic_value": 0.43,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:37.577633Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7b6d780443fc",
"realistic_value": 0.52,
"optimistic_value": 0.52,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:12.837447Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b6d780443fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"realistic_value": 0.4835,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"conservative_value": 0.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:00.572641Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"realistic_value": 0.8115,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"conservative_value": 0.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:08.915287Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"realistic_value": 0.728,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.449802Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.055848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"realistic_value": 0.9305,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"conservative_value": 0.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:54.283947Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.04736126811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"realistic_value": 0.37,
"optimistic_value": 0.37,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:19.384215Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.041886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"realistic_value": 0.36,
"optimistic_value": 0.36,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:10.313699Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08888888888888889,
"output_float": 0.0523575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"realistic_value": 0.787,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.622869Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.11165939999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-07884f77d452",
"realistic_value": 33.7,
"optimistic_value": 33,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Night",
"conservative_value": 32.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:49.361605Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07884f77d452.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.034905,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ee7b966c7ea7",
"realistic_value": 66.331,
"optimistic_value": 59.94,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble",
"conservative_value": 49.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:46.237650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee7b966c7ea7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.055848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78d3855fd66e",
"realistic_value": 186.517,
"optimistic_value": 180,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Para Green",
"conservative_value": 155.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Para Green (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:36.519701Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78d3855fd66e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b60a53695966632fc85c419d",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.67,
"skin_id": "skin-51c3ca06a247",
"listing_id": "500605889842064207",
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Army Sheen",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-51c3ca06a247.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:54:43.724995Z"
},
{
"price": 7.76,
"skin_id": "skin-5e738163a3b5",
"listing_id": "494976224707364790",
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Seabird (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Seabird",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5e738163a3b5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:08:29.783727Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-6d3d5d849392",
"listing_id": "509612292233351967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6d3d5d849392.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:47.534024Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "509612923502747319",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:35.442180Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "509612923502742711",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:35.442180Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "492723793462158945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:35.442180Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "509612923502750487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:56.385472Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-9973f96c93b5",
"listing_id": "631208845697502242",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9973f96c93b5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:54.806698Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "503983589618123095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:35.442180Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "501731789729164553",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:56.385472Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-chopshop:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 10.0% $186.52 Urban Rubble 10.0% $66.33 Night 10.0% $33.70 Sour Grapes 7.8% $0.93 Ocean Topo 7.8% $0.81 Electric Blue 7.8% $0.79 | $186.52 +710.2% | $29.08 +26.3% | 30.0% | +230.1% | $23.02 | — |
The Chop Shop Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 13.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 13.3% $66.33 Night 13.3% $33.70 Sour Grapes 6.7% $0.93 Ocean Topo 6.7% $0.81 Electric Blue 6.7% $0.79 | $186.52 +469.3% | $38.57 +17.7% | 40.0% | +175.6% | $32.76 | — |