The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Light Box
3x $0.46
Motorized
1x $0.47
Dark Sigil
1x $0.84
Dezastre
2x $2.00
Slag
1x $2.08
Blue Fissure
1x $4.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Heirloom
5.0% $313.93
Copper Galaxy
5.0% $57.94
Titanium Bit
5.0% $49.92
Tread Plate
5.0% $26.30
Block-18
16.0% $4.18
Analog Input
16.0% $2.99
Max Win
$313.93 (+1600.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$24.31 (+31.7%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+370.2%
Cost
$18.46
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.46
Ask Price EV $24.31 (+31.7%)
Bid Price EV $20.59 (+11.5%)
Ask Profit $5.85 (+31.7%)
Bid Profit $2.13 (+11.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.73 (+20.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.85
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.13
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $313.93 (+1600.6%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-91.7%)
Volatility +370.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$93.57
Avg Loss -$16.08
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-91.7%)
Std Dev $68.33
Avg Norm Float 0.0874
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 149h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Factory New
$1.68 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.43 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 06S //TOTAL COST $18.46 //ASK PRICE EV $24.31 //BID PRICE EV $20.59 //ASK PROFIT $5.85 (+31.7%) //BID PROFIT $2.13 (+11.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $313.93 //VOLATILITY +370.2% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$313.93
+$295.47
+1600.6%
$251.97
+$233.51
+1265.0%
$61.96
19.7%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$57.94
+$39.48
+213.9%
$55.32
+$36.86
+199.7%
$2.62
4.5%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$49.92
+$31.46
+170.4%
$43.25
+$24.79
+134.3%
$6.67
13.4%
—
WIN
5.0%
$26.30
+$7.84
+42.5%
$23.55
+$5.09
+27.6%
$2.75
10.5%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.18
-$14.28
-77.4%
$4.17
-$14.29
-77.4%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.99
-$15.47
-83.8%
$2.96
-$15.50
-84.0%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.61
-$16.85
-91.3%
$1.58
-$16.88
-91.4%
$0.03
1.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.61
-$16.85
-91.3%
$1.54
-$16.92
-91.7%
$0.07
4.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.53
-$16.93
-91.7%
$1.51
-$16.95
-91.8%
$0.02
1.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.08737,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:09:20.603657Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.05870171875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.18,
"optimistic_value": 4.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:53:19.259981Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.08737,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 1.6055,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:58.231151Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.08737,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.61,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:29.166630Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0540697982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:51:01.026892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.017474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 26.304,
"optimistic_value": 26.22,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 23.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:47.162368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.069896,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 313.933,
"optimistic_value": 293.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 251.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:47.265430Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.017474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 57.9445,
"optimistic_value": 57.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 55.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:57:42.344378Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.017474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 49.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 49.88,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 43.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:04.028074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b2f286f3b0e0e4e2bca3c368",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690809322808",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:07.313652Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "492723793462142529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:38.486246Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "510738989040367846",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:07.313652Z"
},
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "509613089305575423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:28.241433Z"
},
{
"price": 1.68,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "526501587738438953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:38.677049Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "503983589619391051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:04.817123Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506234592363307536",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:36.593684Z"
},
{
"price": 2.43,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "633460645527307573",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:04.817123Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "526501535293799549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:14.293457Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-5a5917ab52b0",
"listing_id": "514116688950726474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5917ab52b0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:58.765541Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:8+collection-set-weapons-iii:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Etch Lord 16.0% $10.80 Just Smile 16.0% $9.45 | $313.93 +1243.3% | $28.09 +20.2% | 20.0% | +279.2% | $23.37 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Heirloom 5.0% $30.23 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Block-18 16.0% $1.31 Analog Input 16.0% $1.04 | $57.94 +548.9% | $8.96 +0.3% | 20.0% | +180.9% | $8.93 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Block-18 14.0% $4.18 Analog Input 14.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +1074.9% | $35.28 +32.0% | 22.5% | +293.9% | $26.72 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Block-18 12.0% $4.18 Analog Input 12.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +787.3% | $46.24 +30.7% | 30.0% | +247.3% | $35.38 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Block-18 10.0% $4.18 Analog Input 10.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +606.4% | $57.21 +28.7% | 37.5% | +212.8% | $44.44 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 15.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 15.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 15.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 15.0% $26.30 Block-18 8.0% $4.18 Analog Input 8.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +473.7% | $68.17 +24.6% | 30.0% | +183.3% | $54.72 | — |