The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Irezumi
3x $0.13
Light Box
2x $0.14
Dark Sigil
2x $0.24
Slag
1x $0.26
Blue Fissure
2x $3.60
↓
Possible Outputs
Copper Galaxy
5.0% $57.94
Titanium Bit
5.0% $49.92
Heirloom
5.0% $30.23
Tread Plate
5.0% $26.30
Block-18
16.0% $1.39
Analog Input
16.0% $1.06
Max Win
$57.94 (+545.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.97 (-0.1%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+190.7%
Cost
$8.98
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.98
Ask Price EV $8.97 (-0.1%)
Bid Price EV $8.18 (-8.9%)
Ask Profit $-0.01 (-0.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.80 (-8.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.79 (+8.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.01
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.80
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $57.94 (+545.3%)
Worst Case $0.69 (-92.3%)
Volatility +190.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$32.12
Avg Loss -$8.05
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.69 (-92.3%)
Std Dev $17.12
Avg Norm Float 0.1847
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 150h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$3.60 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$3.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 59S //TOTAL COST $8.98 //ASK PRICE EV $8.97 //BID PRICE EV $8.18 //ASK PROFIT $-0.01 (-0.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.80 (-8.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $57.94 //VOLATILITY +190.7% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$57.94
+$48.96
+545.3%
$55.32
+$46.34
+516.0%
$2.62
4.5%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$49.92
+$40.94
+455.9%
$43.25
+$34.27
+381.6%
$6.67
13.4%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$30.23
+$21.25
+236.6%
$27.63
+$18.65
+207.7%
$2.60
8.6%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$26.30
+$17.32
+192.9%
$23.55
+$14.57
+162.2%
$2.75
10.5%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.39
-$7.59
-84.5%
$1.30
-$7.68
-85.5%
$0.09
6.5%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.06
-$7.92
-88.2%
$0.98
-$8.00
-89.1%
$0.08
7.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.78
-$8.20
-91.3%
$0.71
-$8.27
-92.1%
$0.07
9.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.74
-$8.24
-91.7%
$0.69
-$8.29
-92.3%
$0.05
7.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.69
-$8.29
-92.3%
$0.66
-$8.32
-92.7%
$0.03
4.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.18465,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.6934999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:05:24.682477Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.12406171875000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 1.3904999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:41.295869Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.18465,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.7434999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:45:33.958473Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.18465,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.78,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:38:27.916348Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.114272499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.0635000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.06,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:20.498260Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.036930000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 26.304,
"optimistic_value": 26.22,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 23.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:47.162368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.14772000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 30.2305,
"optimistic_value": 29.73,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 27.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:44.410262Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.036930000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 57.9445,
"optimistic_value": 57.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 55.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:57:42.344378Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.036930000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 49.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 49.88,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 43.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:04.028074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b2f286f3b0e0e4e2bca3c368",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "510738989040565054",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:07.016665Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "490472738292849795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:13:40.041677Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514115891842488654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:13:40.041677Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "527627540537483456",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:40.862410Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "501731842661112521",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:40.862410Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "509613142167443991",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:48.017844Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "491598743580389942",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:48.017844Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "514116741797067450",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:53.337225Z"
},
{
"price": 3.6,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "493850543431629364",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:37.470608Z"
},
{
"price": 3.7,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "514116636506531238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:37.470608Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:8+collection-set-weapons-iii:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Block-18 16.0% $4.18 Analog Input 16.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +1586.9% | $24.33 +30.7% | 20.0% | +357.3% | $18.61 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Etch Lord 16.0% $10.80 Just Smile 16.0% $9.45 | $313.93 +1216.3% | $28.09 +17.8% | 20.0% | +273.6% | $23.85 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Block-18 14.0% $4.18 Analog Input 14.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +1069.2% | $35.29 +31.4% | 22.5% | +292.4% | $26.85 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Block-18 12.0% $4.18 Analog Input 12.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +787.3% | $46.25 +30.7% | 30.0% | +247.3% | $35.38 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Block-18 10.0% $4.18 Analog Input 10.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +603.7% | $57.21 +28.3% | 37.5% | +211.9% | $44.61 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 15.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 15.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 15.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 15.0% $26.30 Block-18 8.0% $4.18 Analog Input 8.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +473.7% | $68.18 +24.6% | 30.0% | +183.3% | $54.72 | — |