The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Light Box
2x $0.66
Dark Sigil
1x $0.84
Slag
3x $1.85
Dezastre
2x $2.00
Blue Fissure
1x $4.00
Crimson Web
1x $4.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Heirloom
5.0% $313.93
Copper Galaxy
5.0% $57.94
Titanium Bit
5.0% $49.92
Tread Plate
5.0% $26.30
Etch Lord
16.0% $10.80
Just Smile
16.0% $9.45
Max Win
$313.93 (+1216.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$28.09 (+17.8%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+281.7%
Cost
$23.85
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $23.85
Ask Price EV $28.09 (+17.8%)
Bid Price EV $24.35 (+2.1%)
Ask Profit $4.24 (+17.8%)
Bid Profit $0.50 (+2.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.74 (+15.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.24
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.50
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $313.93 (+1216.3%)
Worst Case $2.99 (-87.5%)
Volatility +281.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$88.18
Avg Loss -$16.75
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.99 (-87.5%)
Std Dev $67.18
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 150h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$1.85 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.43 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Factory New
$3.16 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 43M 03S //TOTAL COST $23.85 //ASK PRICE EV $28.09 //BID PRICE EV $24.35 //ASK PROFIT $4.24 (+17.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.50 (+2.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $313.93 //VOLATILITY +281.7% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$313.93
+$290.08
+1216.3%
$251.97
+$228.12
+956.5%
$61.96
19.7%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$57.94
+$34.09
+143.0%
$55.32
+$31.47
+131.9%
$2.62
4.5%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$49.92
+$26.07
+109.3%
$43.25
+$19.40
+81.3%
$6.67
13.4%
—
PAPER WIN
5.0%
$26.30
+$2.45
+10.3%
$23.55
-$0.30
-1.3%
$2.75
10.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.80
-$13.05
-54.7%
$10.67
-$13.18
-55.3%
$0.13
1.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$9.45
-$14.40
-60.4%
$9.40
-$14.45
-60.6%
$0.05
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$8.10
-$15.75
-66.0%
$8.09
-$15.76
-66.1%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.18
-$19.67
-82.5%
$4.18
-$19.67
-82.5%
$0.00
0.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.99
-$20.86
-87.5%
$2.96
-$20.89
-87.6%
$0.03
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06971,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 8.1,
"optimistic_value": 8.1,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 8.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:25.787533Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.04683640625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.18,
"optimistic_value": 4.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:51.719540Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06971,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 10.7975,
"optimistic_value": 10.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 10.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:26.476604Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06971,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4505,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 9.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:53.748283Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.043140730599999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:05:13.947539Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.013942,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 26.304,
"optimistic_value": 26.22,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 23.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:47.162368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.055768,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 313.933,
"optimistic_value": 293.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 251.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:47.265430Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.013942,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 57.9445,
"optimistic_value": 57.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 55.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:57:42.344378Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.013942,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 49.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 49.88,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 43.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:04.028074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_b2f286f3b0e0e4e2bca3c368",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "494976224708092746",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:10:01.379409Z"
},
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "509613089305575423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:56:08.157479Z"
},
{
"price": 1.85,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242588554926161",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:29.478783Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "503983589619391051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:22.361147Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506234592363307536",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:29.478783Z"
},
{
"price": 2.43,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "633460645527307573",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:22.361147Z"
},
{
"price": 2.83,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506234592360092376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:29.478783Z"
},
{
"price": 3.16,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "510738192173047426",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:02.738459Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "526501535293799549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:37.470608Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-5a5917ab52b0",
"listing_id": "514116688950726474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5917ab52b0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:23.357921Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:8+collection-set-weapons-iii:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Block-18 16.0% $4.18 Analog Input 16.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +1586.9% | $24.33 +30.7% | 20.0% | +357.3% | $18.61 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Block-18 14.0% $4.18 Analog Input 14.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +1069.2% | $35.29 +31.4% | 22.5% | +292.4% | $26.85 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Block-18 12.0% $4.18 Analog Input 12.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +787.3% | $46.25 +30.7% | 30.0% | +247.3% | $35.38 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Block-18 10.0% $4.18 Analog Input 10.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +603.7% | $57.21 +28.3% | 37.5% | +211.9% | $44.61 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 15.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 15.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 15.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 15.0% $26.30 Block-18 8.0% $4.18 Analog Input 8.0% $2.99 | $313.93 +473.7% | $68.18 +24.6% | 30.0% | +183.3% | $54.72 | — |