The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Sport & Field Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Bulkhead
2x $0.41
Mainframe
2x $0.57
Cold Fusion
1x $1.58
Cold Cell
3x $0.41
Tiger Stencil
2x $0.53
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
12.5% $17.37
Yorkshire
12.5% $6.64
Alpine Camo
12.5% $5.11
Zeno
12.5% $3.65
Small Game
12.5% $3.55
Exchanger
12.5% $2.42
Max Win
$17.37 (+144.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.40 (-24.0%)
Win %
12.5%
Volatility
+66.9%
Cost
$7.10
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.10
Ask Price EV $5.40 (-24.0%)
Bid Price EV $5.20 (-26.7%)
Ask Profit $-1.70 (-24.0%)
Bid Profit $-1.90 (-26.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.19 (+2.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.70
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.90
Risk
Win Probability 12.5%
Loss Probability 87.5%
Best Case $17.37 (+144.7%)
Worst Case $2.20 (-69.0%)
Volatility +66.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 75.0%
Avg Win +$10.27
Avg Loss -$3.42
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.20 (-69.0%)
Std Dev $4.75
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 151h 33m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Bulkhead
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Bulkhead
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Factory New
$1.58 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell
—
Factory New
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil
—
Factory New
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 03M 32S //TOTAL COST $7.10 //ASK PRICE EV $5.40 //BID PRICE EV $5.20 //ASK PROFIT $-1.70 (-24.0%) //BID PROFIT $-1.90 (-26.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 12.5% //BEST CASE $17.37 //VOLATILITY +66.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.5%
$17.37
+$10.27
+144.7%
$16.98
+$9.88
+139.2%
$0.39
2.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$6.64
-$0.46
-6.5%
$6.41
-$0.69
-9.7%
$0.22
3.4%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$5.11
-$1.99
-28.0%
$5.07
-$2.03
-28.6%
$0.04
0.9%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$3.65
-$3.45
-48.6%
$3.31
-$3.79
-53.4%
$0.34
9.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$3.55
-$3.55
-50.1%
$3.28
-$3.82
-53.8%
$0.27
7.5%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.42
-$4.68
-66.0%
$2.36
-$4.74
-66.8%
$0.06
2.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.23
-$4.87
-68.5%
$2.04
-$5.06
-71.3%
$0.19
8.7%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.20
-$4.90
-69.0%
$2.16
-$4.94
-69.6%
$0.04
1.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-realism-camo|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0578095,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 17.3705,
"optimistic_value": 17.36,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 16.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:46.180805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.034825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.234,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:06.023633Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad8878d8dfca",
"realistic_value": 6.635,
"optimistic_value": 6.6,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Yorkshire",
"conservative_value": 6.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Yorkshire (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:09.145127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad8878d8dfca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.034825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4155,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:21:59.750980Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.048755,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c97106696572",
"realistic_value": 3.5455,
"optimistic_value": 3.5,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Small Game",
"conservative_value": 3.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Small Game (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:47.480076Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c97106696572.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.034825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2005,
"optimistic_value": 2.19,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:31.129446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.048755,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6aaf237dc6ae",
"realistic_value": 3.6485,
"optimistic_value": 3.61,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:25:01.060661Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6aaf237dc6ae.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.04736200000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7d2a2ccef9f1",
"realistic_value": 5.1135,
"optimistic_value": 5.11,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:35:25.377438Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7d2a2ccef9f1.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_affa8f92330bde04c2534124",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-09caec0af065",
"listing_id": "509613142167838479",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Bulkhead (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Bulkhead",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-09caec0af065.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:59.828174Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-09caec0af065",
"listing_id": "511864941881788053",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Bulkhead (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Bulkhead",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-09caec0af065.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:59.828174Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "519746241188990132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:13.995951Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "528753335313332721",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:13.995951Z"
},
{
"price": 1.58,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "508486392208678358",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:29.013762Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-578fd8494dd0",
"listing_id": "519746241188993732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-578fd8494dd0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:25:17.519221Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-578fd8494dd0",
"listing_id": "499479989895985801",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-578fd8494dd0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:25:17.519221Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-578fd8494dd0",
"listing_id": "509613036859523919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-578fd8494dd0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:25:17.519221Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-f4f7b9b303a2",
"listing_id": "494976338033104926",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f4f7b9b303a2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:23:37.200085Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-f4f7b9b303a2",
"listing_id": "491598638254266758",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f4f7b9b303a2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:23:37.200085Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:5+collection-set-realism-camo:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Sport & Field Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Acheron 12.5% $2.39 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.23 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.20 Yorkshire 12.5% $1.54 Alpine Camo 12.5% $1.48 | $2.42 +54.8% | $1.82 +16.7% | 50.0% | +24.7% | $1.56 | — |