The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Foresight
1x $0.30
Dark Sigil
1x $0.17
Hideout
2x $0.20
Light Box
3x $0.21
Irezumi
1x $0.34
Motorized
1x $0.35
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
18.0% $4.43
Block-18
18.0% $4.19
Night Terror
2.0% $4.12
Ticket to Hell
2.0% $3.94
Just Smile
18.0% $3.32
Hybrid
18.0% $2.65
Max Win
$4.43 (+64.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.21 (+18.8%)
Win %
58.0%
Volatility
+38.1%
Cost
$2.70
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.70
Ask Price EV $3.21 (+18.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.89 (+7.2%)
Ask Profit $0.51 (+18.8%)
Bid Profit $0.19 (+7.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.32 (+11.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.51
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.19
Risk
Win Probability 58.0%
Loss Probability 42.0%
Best Case $4.43 (+64.2%)
Worst Case $1.18 (-56.4%)
Volatility +38.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 24.0%
Avg Win +$1.29
Avg Loss -$0.56
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.45 (-46.2%)
Std Dev $1.03
Avg Norm Float 0.1500
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 154h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 01S //TOTAL COST $2.70 //ASK PRICE EV $3.21 //BID PRICE EV $2.89 //ASK PROFIT $0.51 (+18.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.19 (+7.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 58.0% //BEST CASE $4.43 //VOLATILITY +38.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$4.43
+$1.73
+64.2%
$3.77
+$1.07
+39.6%
$0.66
15.0%
—
BIG WIN
18.0%
$4.19
+$1.49
+55.2%
$3.88
+$1.18
+43.7%
$0.31
7.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.0%
$4.12
+$1.42
+52.7%
$3.46
+$0.76
+28.1%
$0.66
16.1%
—
WIN
2.0%
$3.94
+$1.24
+45.9%
$3.26
+$0.56
+20.7%
$0.68
17.3%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$3.32
+$0.62
+23.0%
$2.85
+$0.15
+5.6%
$0.47
14.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$2.65
-$0.05
-1.9%
$2.60
-$0.10
-3.7%
$0.05
1.9%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$1.90
-$0.80
-29.5%
$1.85
-$0.85
-31.5%
$0.05
2.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$1.45
-$1.25
-46.2%
$1.22
-$1.48
-54.8%
$0.23
16.1%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.24
-$1.46
-54.0%
$1.19
-$1.51
-55.9%
$0.05
4.1%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.18
-$1.52
-56.4%
$1.00
-$1.70
-63.0%
$0.18
15.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:23.045771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.10077453125000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.434,
"optimistic_value": 4.42,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:41.101680Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.3205,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:08.866053Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0928228114,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:34.770098Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.14999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.4535,
"optimistic_value": 1.45,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:23.205023Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.104993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4.1240000000000006,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:15.418096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.10049330000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.241,
"optimistic_value": 1.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:44.282789Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.11399240000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 3.94,
"optimistic_value": 3.94,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 3.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:45.994094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.074995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.1775,
"optimistic_value": 1.16,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:02.129368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_af010694e587dc7aeb182270",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "509612292238590183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:40:12.762443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "519746241189696524",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:31:01.076812Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "514116523129581066",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:59.006228Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:40:00.371922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:40:00.371922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:40:00.371922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "499480042829003797",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:04.823090Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "517494441499079446",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:39.629924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:43.162031Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:36.370297Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Night Terror 2.0% $2.66 Etch Lord 18.0% $2.35 Analog Input 18.0% $1.90 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $1.87 Just Smile 18.0% $1.56 | $4.19 +106.4% | $2.22 +9.4% | 38.0% | +44.2% | $2.03 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 12.0% $8.90 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Analog Input 12.0% $4.13 Night Terror 8.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $3.94 Just Smile 12.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +166.4% | $4.01 +20.0% | 52.0% | +51.4% | $3.34 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 10.0% $8.90 Night Terror 10.0% $8.17 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 Analog Input 10.0% $4.13 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $3.94 Just Smile 10.0% $3.32 | $8.90 +147.1% | $4.24 +17.8% | 50.0% | +54.2% | $3.60 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 14.0% $4.43 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Night Terror 6.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $3.94 Just Smile 14.0% $3.34 Hybrid 14.0% $2.65 | $4.43 +71.9% | $3.03 +17.5% | 68.0% | +30.5% | $2.58 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Night Terror 4.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $3.94 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Hybrid 16.0% $2.65 | $4.45 +66.2% | $3.13 +16.7% | 56.0% | +28.2% | $2.68 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ticket to Hell 14.0% $10.13 Block-18 6.0% $8.90 Night Terror 14.0% $8.17 Etch Lord 6.0% $4.43 Analog Input 6.0% $4.13 Just Smile 6.0% $3.32 | $10.13 +135.5% | $4.93 +14.7% | 40.0% | +58.8% | $4.30 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 8.0% $8.90 Night Terror 12.0% $8.19 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.43 Analog Input 8.0% $4.13 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $3.94 Just Smile 8.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +145.1% | $4.16 +14.5% | 48.0% | +53.8% | $3.63 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Kilowatt Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ticket to Hell 16.0% $10.13 Block-18 4.0% $8.90 Night Terror 16.0% $8.19 Etch Lord 4.0% $4.43 Analog Input 4.0% $4.13 Just Smile 4.0% $3.34 | $10.13 +129.6% | $4.97 +12.7% | 40.0% | +58.6% | $4.41 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  26.7% $37.06 Jawbreaker  26.7% $14.90 Olympus  26.7% $14.32 Rapid Eye Movement  6.7% $9.11 Melondrama  6.7% $8.82 Abyssal Apparition  6.7% $8.31 | $37.06 +117.1% | $19.42 +13.8% | 26.7% | +63.7% | $17.07 | — |