The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Poultrygeist
1x $0.14
Dark Sigil
2x $0.16
Light Box
3x $0.21
Hideout
2x $0.30
Motorized
2x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Block-18
18.0% $4.19
Night Terror
2.0% $4.12
Ticket to Hell
2.0% $3.94
Etch Lord
18.0% $2.48
Analog Input
18.0% $1.90
Just Smile
18.0% $1.56
Max Win
$4.19 (+59.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.32 (-11.9%)
Win %
22.0%
Volatility
+40.0%
Cost
$2.63
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.63
Ask Price EV $2.32 (-11.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.11 (-19.9%)
Ask Profit $-0.31 (-11.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.52 (-19.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+8.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.31
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.52
Risk
Win Probability 22.0%
Loss Probability 78.0%
Best Case $4.19 (+59.3%)
Worst Case $0.89 (-66.1%)
Volatility +40.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$1.53
Avg Loss -$0.83
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.25 (-52.4%)
Std Dev $1.05
Avg Norm Float 0.1696
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 155h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 35S //TOTAL COST $2.63 //ASK PRICE EV $2.32 //BID PRICE EV $2.11 //ASK PROFIT $-0.31 (-11.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.52 (-19.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 22.0% //BEST CASE $4.19 //VOLATILITY +40.0% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
18.0%
$4.19
+$1.56
+59.3%
$3.88
+$1.25
+47.5%
$0.31
7.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.0%
$4.12
+$1.49
+56.8%
$3.46
+$0.83
+31.6%
$0.66
16.1%
—
WIN
2.0%
$3.94
+$1.31
+49.8%
$3.26
+$0.63
+24.0%
$0.68
17.3%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$2.48
-$0.15
-5.6%
$2.07
-$0.56
-21.3%
$0.41
16.6%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$1.90
-$0.73
-27.6%
$1.85
-$0.78
-29.7%
$0.05
2.9%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.56
-$1.07
-40.7%
$1.43
-$1.20
-45.6%
$0.13
8.3%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.47
-$1.16
-44.1%
$1.40
-$1.23
-46.8%
$0.07
4.8%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.25
-$1.38
-52.4%
$1.19
-$1.44
-54.8%
$0.06
4.9%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.21
-$1.42
-54.0%
$1.00
-$1.63
-62.0%
$0.21
17.4%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$0.89
-$1.74
-66.1%
$0.80
-$1.83
-69.6%
$0.09
10.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.16964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.47,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:24.938683Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.113976875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.16964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 2.4835000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.48,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 2.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:34.876512Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.16964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.56,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:39.434678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.1049834104,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:48.600665Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.16964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.8915,
"optimistic_value": 0.86,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:18.266328Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.118748,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4.1240000000000006,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:15.418096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.11365880000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.251,
"optimistic_value": 1.23,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:23.690849Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.12892640000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 3.94,
"optimistic_value": 3.94,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 3.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:45.994094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.08482,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.21,
"optimistic_value": 1.21,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:12.053728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_af010694e587dc7aeb182270",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "516368541589801214",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:16.764046Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "521998040963862726",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:56.655675Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "520872141039222012",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:25.545663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "525375522204066055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:28.744705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "520872088106698692",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:25.545663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "527627540538064388",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:07.728597Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:07.728597Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.46 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Night Terror 2.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $3.94 Just Smile 18.0% $3.35 Hybrid 18.0% $2.65 | $4.46 +65.2% | $3.22 +19.2% | 58.0% | +27.1% | $2.70 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Kilowatt Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ticket to Hell 16.0% $10.13 Block-18 4.0% $8.90 Night Terror 16.0% $8.21 Etch Lord 4.0% $4.45 Analog Input 4.0% $4.03 Just Smile 4.0% $3.34 | $10.13 +146.4% | $4.95 +20.6% | 40.0% | +63.2% | $4.11 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ticket to Hell 14.0% $10.13 Block-18 6.0% $8.90 Night Terror 14.0% $8.21 Etch Lord 6.0% $4.45 Analog Input 6.0% $4.03 Just Smile 6.0% $3.34 | $10.13 +144.6% | $4.92 +18.9% | 40.0% | +61.4% | $4.14 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ticket to Hell 12.0% $10.13 Block-18 8.0% $8.90 Night Terror 12.0% $8.21 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.43 Analog Input 8.0% $4.13 Just Smile 8.0% $3.32 | $10.13 +145.2% | $4.90 +18.6% | 40.0% | +60.0% | $4.13 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Night Terror 4.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $3.94 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Hybrid 16.0% $2.65 | $4.45 +68.7% | $3.12 +18.2% | 72.0% | +28.8% | $2.64 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Night Terror 6.0% $4.12 Etch Lord 14.0% $2.35 Analog Input 14.0% $1.90 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.87 Just Smile 14.0% $1.56 | $4.19 +126.5% | $2.16 +16.8% | 54.0% | +50.6% | $1.85 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 12.0% $8.90 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Night Terror 8.0% $4.12 Analog Input 12.0% $4.03 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $3.94 Just Smile 12.0% $3.32 | $8.90 +160.1% | $3.99 +16.6% | 52.0% | +50.4% | $3.42 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 10.0% $8.90 Night Terror 10.0% $8.21 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Analog Input 10.0% $4.03 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $3.94 Just Smile 10.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +142.4% | $4.23 +15.3% | 50.0% | +53.5% | $3.67 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  23.3% $37.06 Jawbreaker  23.3% $14.90 Olympus  23.3% $13.83 Rapid Eye Movement  10.0% $9.11 Melondrama  10.0% $8.43 Abyssal Apparition  10.0% $8.11 | $37.06 +141.6% | $17.92 +16.8% | 23.3% | +70.8% | $15.34 | — |