The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Lifted Spirits
1x $1.72
Motorized
2x $0.34
Dark Sigil
2x $0.36
Slag
1x $0.37
Dezastre
2x $0.61
Light Box
1x $0.76
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
18.0% $13.06
Ticket to Hell
2.0% $10.13
Just Smile
18.0% $9.31
Block-18
18.0% $8.90
Night Terror
2.0% $8.21
Hybrid
18.0% $7.89
Max Win
$13.06 (+44.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.37 (-7.6%)
Win %
38.0%
Volatility
+33.2%
Cost
$9.06
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.06
Ask Price EV $8.37 (-7.6%)
Bid Price EV $7.51 (-17.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.69 (-7.6%)
Bid Profit $-1.55 (-17.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.86 (+9.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.69
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.55
Risk
Win Probability 38.0%
Loss Probability 62.0%
Best Case $13.06 (+44.1%)
Worst Case $2.45 (-73.0%)
Volatility +33.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 24.0%
Avg Win +$2.07
Avg Loss -$2.39
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.03 (-55.5%)
Std Dev $3.01
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 155h 36m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$1.72 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Factory New
$1.56 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 01S //TOTAL COST $9.06 //ASK PRICE EV $8.37 //BID PRICE EV $7.51 //ASK PROFIT $-0.69 (-7.6%) //BID PROFIT $-1.55 (-17.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 38.0% //BEST CASE $13.06 //VOLATILITY +33.2% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$13.06
+$4.00
+44.1%
$12.03
+$2.97
+32.8%
$1.03
7.9%
—
PAPER WIN
2.0%
$10.13
+$1.06
+11.8%
$8.42
-$0.64
-7.1%
$1.71
16.8%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$9.31
+$0.25
+2.8%
$7.84
-$1.22
-13.5%
$1.47
15.8%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$8.90
-$0.16
-1.8%
$7.77
-$1.29
-14.2%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$8.21
-$0.85
-9.3%
$7.84
-$1.22
-13.5%
$0.37
4.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$7.89
-$1.17
-12.9%
$7.43
-$1.63
-18.0%
$0.46
5.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$5.94
-$3.12
-34.4%
$5.08
-$3.98
-43.9%
$0.86
14.5%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.03
-$5.03
-55.5%
$3.76
-$5.30
-58.5%
$0.27
6.7%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$2.99
-$6.08
-67.1%
$2.62
-$6.44
-71.1%
$0.36
12.2%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$2.45
-$6.61
-73.0%
$2.12
-$6.94
-76.6%
$0.33
13.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:57.736585Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04702453125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:58.626471Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0433140114,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.028,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:11.593982Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 5.939,
"optimistic_value": 5.89,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:31:57.158787Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 8.2145,
"optimistic_value": 8.12,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:01.252262Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0468933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 2.985,
"optimistic_value": 2.95,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T20:23:52.712289Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0531924,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 10.125,
"optimistic_value": 10.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 8.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:44.991761Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.034995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.45,
"optimistic_value": 2.45,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:17.633633Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_af010694e587dc7aeb182270",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.72,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "506235389469297444",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:39.526024Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "527627540538064388",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:07.728597Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:07.728597Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:28.744705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:43.994743Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:24.397487Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:58.222526Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:06.377160Z"
},
{
"price": 1.56,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "527627322002854856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:26.955101Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "509613142168459839",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:29.485085Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.46 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Night Terror 2.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $3.94 Just Smile 18.0% $3.35 Hybrid 18.0% $2.65 | $4.46 +65.2% | $3.22 +19.2% | 58.0% | +27.1% | $2.70 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Kilowatt Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ticket to Hell 16.0% $10.13 Block-18 4.0% $8.90 Night Terror 16.0% $8.21 Etch Lord 4.0% $4.45 Analog Input 4.0% $4.03 Just Smile 4.0% $3.34 | $10.13 +146.4% | $4.95 +20.6% | 40.0% | +63.2% | $4.11 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ticket to Hell 14.0% $10.13 Block-18 6.0% $8.90 Night Terror 14.0% $8.21 Etch Lord 6.0% $4.45 Analog Input 6.0% $4.03 Just Smile 6.0% $3.34 | $10.13 +144.6% | $4.92 +18.9% | 40.0% | +61.4% | $4.14 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ticket to Hell 12.0% $10.13 Block-18 8.0% $8.90 Night Terror 12.0% $8.21 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.43 Analog Input 8.0% $4.13 Just Smile 8.0% $3.32 | $10.13 +145.2% | $4.90 +18.6% | 40.0% | +60.0% | $4.13 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Night Terror 4.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $3.94 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Hybrid 16.0% $2.65 | $4.45 +68.7% | $3.12 +18.2% | 72.0% | +28.8% | $2.64 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Night Terror 6.0% $4.12 Etch Lord 14.0% $2.35 Analog Input 14.0% $1.90 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.87 Just Smile 14.0% $1.56 | $4.19 +126.5% | $2.16 +16.8% | 54.0% | +50.6% | $1.85 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 12.0% $8.90 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Night Terror 8.0% $4.12 Analog Input 12.0% $4.03 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $3.94 Just Smile 12.0% $3.32 | $8.90 +160.1% | $3.99 +16.6% | 52.0% | +50.4% | $3.42 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 10.0% $8.90 Night Terror 10.0% $8.21 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Analog Input 10.0% $4.03 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $3.94 Just Smile 10.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +142.4% | $4.23 +15.3% | 50.0% | +53.5% | $3.67 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  23.3% $37.06 Jawbreaker  23.3% $14.90 Olympus  23.3% $13.83 Rapid Eye Movement  10.0% $9.11 Melondrama  10.0% $8.43 Abyssal Apparition  10.0% $8.11 | $37.06 +141.6% | $17.92 +16.8% | 23.3% | +70.8% | $15.34 | — |