The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Kitbash
1x $6.70
Monster Call
1x $10.60
Urban Sovereign
5x $4.60
Amberline
1x $6.64
Galigator
2x $7.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
26.7% $290.04
Kintsugi
26.7% $65.51
Deathgaze
26.7% $61.53
Tooth Fairy
6.7% $39.13
Vogue
6.7% $37.74
Entombed
6.7% $15.08
Max Win
$290.04 (+229.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$117.35 (+33.3%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+119.3%
Cost
$88.04
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $88.04
Ask Price EV $117.35 (+33.3%)
Bid Price EV $96.09 (+9.1%)
Ask Profit $29.31 (+33.3%)
Bid Profit $8.05 (+9.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $21.26 (+24.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$29.31
Bid Slippage Buffer +$8.05
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $290.04 (+229.4%)
Worst Case $15.08 (-82.9%)
Volatility +119.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 73.3%
Avg Win +$202.00
Avg Loss -$33.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $15.08 (-82.9%)
Std Dev $105.02
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 6m
Oldest Output Price 5h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Kitbash
—
Factory New
$6.70 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Monster Call
—
Factory New
$10.60 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.64 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.29 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$9.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$17.66 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 48M 04S //TOTAL COST $88.04 //ASK PRICE EV $117.35 //BID PRICE EV $96.09 //ASK PROFIT $29.31 (+33.3%) //BID PROFIT $8.05 (+9.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +119.3% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$290.04
+$202.00
+229.4%
$229.11
+$141.07
+160.2%
$60.93
21.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$65.51
-$22.53
-25.6%
$55.11
-$32.93
-37.4%
$10.40
15.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$61.53
-$26.51
-30.1%
$55.38
-$32.66
-37.1%
$6.15
10.0%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$39.13
-$48.91
-55.6%
$35.65
-$52.39
-59.5%
$3.48
8.9%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$37.74
-$50.30
-57.1%
$33.41
-$54.63
-62.1%
$4.33
11.5%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$15.08
-$72.96
-82.9%
$13.91
-$74.13
-84.2%
$1.17
7.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 65.5065,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:13.723158Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.528999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:28.082311Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.052425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e390882e9a0",
"realistic_value": 37.735,
"optimistic_value": 37,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Vogue",
"conservative_value": 33.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:29:35.401049Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e390882e9a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.051027,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1e9229953491",
"realistic_value": 39.1265,
"optimistic_value": 39.06,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Tooth Fairy",
"conservative_value": 35.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:44.643644Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1e9229953491.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.03495,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daae504f859c",
"realistic_value": 15.076,
"optimistic_value": 14.95,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Entombed",
"conservative_value": 13.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:42:56.090035Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daae504f859c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ac0d8ef2a3ffd0a0a363ac24",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 6.7,
"skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"listing_id": "649223316118366216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:55:03.402786Z"
},
{
"price": 10.6,
"skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"listing_id": "517494222854312770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:05.883146Z"
},
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "511864888984804653",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.971761Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "509613089304042939",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.971761Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.971761Z"
},
{
"price": 6.64,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182346589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:30.419249Z"
},
{
"price": 7.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "524249787960966687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:13.555448Z"
},
{
"price": 9,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "496102237883506139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:13.555448Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:20.078689Z"
},
{
"price": 17.66,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506234592361187964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:20.078689Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 26.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 26.7% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 6.7% $11.12 Vogue 6.7% $10.20 Entombed 6.7% $7.15 | $63.86 +195.9% | $25.48 +18.1% | 26.7% | +107.4% | $21.58 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $126.41 Kintsugi 26.7% $23.12 Deathgaze 26.7% $20.83 Tooth Fairy 6.7% $19.65 Vogue 6.7% $16.48 Entombed 6.7% $9.46 | $126.41 +197.7% | $48.47 +14.1% | 26.7% | +111.0% | $42.46 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 30.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 30.0% $61.53 Tooth Fairy 3.3% $39.13 Vogue 3.3% $37.74 Entombed 3.3% $15.08 | $290.04 +204.7% | $128.19 +34.7% | 30.0% | +111.8% | $95.19 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.53 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $39.13 Vogue 10.0% $37.74 Entombed 10.0% $15.08 | $290.04 +252.3% | $106.51 +29.4% | 23.3% | +124.4% | $82.34 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 13.3% $39.13 Vogue 13.3% $37.74 Entombed 13.3% $15.08 | $290.04 +279.8% | $95.66 +25.3% | 20.0% | +129.1% | $76.36 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 16.7% $11.12 Vogue 16.7% $10.20 Entombed 16.7% $7.15 | $63.86 +299.9% | $19.48 +22.0% | 16.7% | +124.8% | $15.97 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.60 Tooth Fairy 20.0% $11.12 Vogue 20.0% $10.20 Entombed 20.0% $7.15 | $63.86 +329.2% | $17.44 +17.2% | 13.3% | +122.9% | $14.88 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $126.41 Kintsugi 10.0% $23.12 Deathgaze 10.0% $20.83 Tooth Fairy 23.3% $19.65 Vogue 23.3% $16.48 Entombed 23.3% $9.46 | $126.41 +400.0% | $27.67 +9.5% | 10.0% | +131.4% | $25.28 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Tooth Fairy 26.7% $19.65 Vogue 26.7% $16.48 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.60 Entombed 26.7% $9.44 | $63.86 +259.8% | $18.02 +1.5% | 33.3% | +72.5% | $17.75 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Tooth Fairy 30.0% $19.65 Vogue 30.0% $16.48 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.91 Entombed 30.0% $9.46 | $63.86 +289.9% | $16.62 +1.5% | 63.3% | +59.1% | $16.38 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.92 Brother  10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +303.7% | $17.02 +34.0% | 50.0% | +94.3% | $12.70 | — |