The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Kitbash
2x $1.99
Amberline
2x $3.17
Urban Sovereign
6x $3.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
26.7% $126.41
Kintsugi
26.7% $22.62
Deathgaze
26.7% $20.41
Tooth Fairy
6.7% $19.65
Vogue
6.7% $16.48
Entombed
6.7% $9.46
Max Win
$126.41 (+209.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$48.22 (+17.9%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+115.6%
Cost
$40.89
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $40.89
Ask Price EV $48.22 (+17.9%)
Bid Price EV $43.35 (+6.0%)
Ask Profit $7.33 (+17.9%)
Bid Profit $2.46 (+6.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $4.88 (+11.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$7.33
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.46
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $126.41 (+209.2%)
Worst Case $9.46 (-76.9%)
Volatility +115.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 73.3%
Avg Win +$85.52
Avg Loss -$21.10
Bottom 5% Outcome $9.46 (-76.9%)
Std Dev $47.26
Avg Norm Float 0.1496
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 140h 31m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Kitbash
—
Minimal Wear
$1.99 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Kitbash
—
Minimal Wear
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.64 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 22S //TOTAL COST $40.89 //ASK PRICE EV $48.22 //BID PRICE EV $43.35 //ASK PROFIT $7.33 (+17.9%) //BID PROFIT $2.46 (+6.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +115.6% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$126.41
+$85.52
+209.2%
$112.39
+$71.50
+174.9%
$14.02
11.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$22.62
-$18.27
-44.7%
$20.66
-$20.23
-49.5%
$1.96
8.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$20.41
-$20.48
-50.1%
$19.37
-$21.52
-52.6%
$1.04
5.1%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$19.65
-$21.24
-51.9%
$16.67
-$24.22
-59.2%
$2.98
15.2%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$16.48
-$24.41
-59.7%
$15.77
-$25.12
-61.4%
$0.71
4.3%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$9.46
-$31.43
-76.9%
$8.08
-$32.81
-80.2%
$1.38
14.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.14962,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 124,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 112.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.14962,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 22.619999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 22.2,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 20.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:47.292146Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.14962,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 20.407,
"optimistic_value": 19.98,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 19.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:47.338085Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.11221500000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e390882e9a0",
"realistic_value": 16.4755,
"optimistic_value": 15.8,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Vogue",
"conservative_value": 15.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T15:32:23.119672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e390882e9a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.1092226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1e9229953491",
"realistic_value": 19.648,
"optimistic_value": 19.55,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Tooth Fairy",
"conservative_value": 16.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:26:59.725320Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1e9229953491.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.07481,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daae504f859c",
"realistic_value": 9.457999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 9.29,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Entombed",
"conservative_value": 8.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:47:38.939609Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daae504f859c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ac0d8ef2a3ffd0a0a363ac24",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.99,
"skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"listing_id": "529879287550615284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:32.310207Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"listing_id": "509613036860352603",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:32.310207Z"
},
{
"price": 3.17,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "496102290329110667",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:37:51.370303Z"
},
{
"price": 3.19,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "493850490550002916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:46.917228Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:46.917228Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605889840023871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:46.257285Z"
},
{
"price": 4.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988014719718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:46.257285Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:46.257285Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:46.257285Z"
},
{
"price": 6.64,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182346589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:01.068828Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 26.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 26.7% $11.60 Tooth Fairy 6.7% $11.12 Vogue 6.7% $10.20 Entombed 6.7% $7.15 | $63.86 +196.3% | $25.39 +17.8% | 26.7% | +107.8% | $21.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 30.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 30.0% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 3.3% $39.13 Vogue 3.3% $37.31 Entombed 3.3% $15.08 | $290.04 +200.6% | $128.16 +32.8% | 30.0% | +110.4% | $96.49 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $39.13 Vogue 10.0% $37.31 Entombed 10.0% $15.08 | $290.04 +258.2% | $106.46 +31.5% | 23.3% | +126.5% | $80.98 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 13.3% $39.13 Vogue 13.3% $37.31 Entombed 13.3% $15.08 | $290.04 +281.6% | $95.61 +25.8% | 20.0% | +129.7% | $76.00 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.60 Tooth Fairy 16.7% $11.12 Vogue 16.7% $10.20 Entombed 16.7% $7.15 | $63.86 +300.4% | $19.43 +21.8% | 16.7% | +125.0% | $15.95 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 20.0% $11.12 Vogue 20.0% $10.20 Entombed 20.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +329.2% | $17.45 +17.3% | 13.3% | +123.0% | $14.88 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $126.41 Kintsugi 10.0% $22.62 Deathgaze 10.0% $20.41 Tooth Fairy 23.3% $19.65 Vogue 23.3% $16.48 Entombed 23.3% $9.46 | $126.41 +395.1% | $27.58 +8.0% | 10.0% | +130.2% | $25.53 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $126.41 Kintsugi 6.7% $22.62 Deathgaze 6.7% $21.23 Tooth Fairy 26.7% $19.65 Vogue 26.7% $16.48 Entombed 26.7% $15.93 | $126.41 +413.9% | $25.23 +2.6% | 6.7% | +110.3% | $24.60 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Tooth Fairy 30.0% $19.65 Vogue 30.0% $16.48 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.60 Entombed 30.0% $9.46 | $63.86 +290.3% | $16.61 +1.5% | 63.3% | +59.2% | $16.36 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator  10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.79 Brother  10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +292.3% | $17.01 +30.1% | 50.0% | +91.7% | $13.07 | — |