The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified WW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Well-Worn StatTrak™
Inputs
Allure
1x $0.87
Kitbash
1x $0.89
Amberline
8x $2.08
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
26.7% $45.29
Tooth Fairy
6.7% $11.12
Vogue
6.7% $10.20
Deathgaze
26.7% $9.04
Kintsugi
26.7% $7.96
Entombed
6.7% $7.15
Max Win
$45.29 (+120.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.51 (-9.9%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+78.8%
Cost
$20.53
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.53
Ask Price EV $18.51 (-9.9%)
Bid Price EV $17.09 (-16.8%)
Ask Profit $-2.02 (-9.9%)
Bid Profit $-3.44 (-16.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.42 (+6.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.02
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.44
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $45.29 (+120.6%)
Worst Case $7.15 (-65.2%)
Volatility +78.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 73.3%
Avg Win +$24.75
Avg Loss -$11.76
Bottom 5% Outcome $7.15 (-65.2%)
Std Dev $16.17
Avg Norm Float 0.4098
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 140h 23m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Allure
—
Well-Worn
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Kitbash
—
Field-Tested
$0.89 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.17 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 23S //TOTAL COST $20.53 //ASK PRICE EV $18.51 //BID PRICE EV $17.09 //ASK PROFIT $-2.02 (-9.9%) //BID PROFIT $-3.44 (-16.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $45.29 //VOLATILITY +78.8% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
26.7%
$45.29
+$24.75
+120.6%
$41.72
+$21.19
+103.2%
$3.56
7.9%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$11.12
-$9.41
-45.9%
$9.82
-$10.71
-52.2%
$1.30
11.7%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$10.20
-$10.33
-50.3%
$9.45
-$11.08
-54.0%
$0.75
7.3%
—
NUKE
26.7%
$9.04
-$11.49
-56.0%
$8.25
-$12.28
-59.8%
$0.79
8.7%
—
NUKE
26.7%
$7.96
-$12.57
-61.2%
$7.67
-$12.86
-62.6%
$0.29
3.6%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$7.15
-$13.38
-65.2%
$6.53
-$14.00
-68.2%
$0.62
8.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.40979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 45.285,
"optimistic_value": 44.9,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 41.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.425805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.40979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 7.96,
"optimistic_value": 7.89,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 7.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:49.694054Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.40979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 9.0395,
"optimistic_value": 8.98,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 8.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:52.693930Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.30734249999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e390882e9a0",
"realistic_value": 10.196,
"optimistic_value": 10.14,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Vogue",
"conservative_value": 9.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:12.284900Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e390882e9a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.2991467,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1e9229953491",
"realistic_value": 11.1155,
"optimistic_value": 11,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Tooth Fairy",
"conservative_value": 9.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:51.460417Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1e9229953491.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.204895,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daae504f859c",
"realistic_value": 7.151,
"optimistic_value": 7.13,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Entombed",
"conservative_value": 6.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:46.991879Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daae504f859c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ac0d8ef2a3ffd0a0a363ac24",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"listing_id": "521997988015445910",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:32.739524Z"
},
{
"price": 0.89,
"skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"listing_id": "526501587737138993",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:04.435319Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361289452694821",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:37:55.238665Z"
},
{
"price": 2.09,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "514116688949678190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:37:55.238665Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "490472738292168531",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:37:55.238665Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "525375635593980187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.898941Z"
},
{
"price": 2.31,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "505109489448722396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.898941Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361237008630373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.898941Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182385829",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.898941Z"
},
{
"price": 3.17,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "496102290329110667",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:37:51.370303Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $126.41 Kintsugi 26.7% $22.62 Deathgaze 26.7% $20.41 Tooth Fairy 6.7% $19.65 Vogue 6.7% $16.48 Entombed 6.7% $9.46 | $126.41 +209.2% | $48.22 +17.9% | 26.7% | +115.6% | $40.89 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 26.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 26.7% $11.60 Tooth Fairy 6.7% $11.12 Vogue 6.7% $10.20 Entombed 6.7% $7.15 | $63.86 +196.3% | $25.39 +17.8% | 26.7% | +107.8% | $21.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 30.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 30.0% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 3.3% $39.13 Vogue 3.3% $37.31 Entombed 3.3% $15.08 | $290.04 +200.6% | $128.16 +32.8% | 30.0% | +110.4% | $96.49 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $39.13 Vogue 10.0% $37.31 Entombed 10.0% $15.08 | $290.04 +258.2% | $106.46 +31.5% | 23.3% | +126.5% | $80.98 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 13.3% $39.13 Vogue 13.3% $37.31 Entombed 13.3% $15.08 | $290.04 +281.6% | $95.61 +25.8% | 20.0% | +129.7% | $76.00 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.60 Tooth Fairy 16.7% $11.12 Vogue 16.7% $10.20 Entombed 16.7% $7.15 | $63.86 +300.4% | $19.43 +21.8% | 16.7% | +125.0% | $15.95 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 20.0% $11.12 Vogue 20.0% $10.20 Entombed 20.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +329.2% | $17.45 +17.3% | 13.3% | +123.0% | $14.88 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $126.41 Kintsugi 10.0% $22.62 Deathgaze 10.0% $20.41 Tooth Fairy 23.3% $19.65 Vogue 23.3% $16.48 Entombed 23.3% $9.46 | $126.41 +395.1% | $27.58 +8.0% | 10.0% | +130.2% | $25.53 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $126.41 Kintsugi 6.7% $22.62 Deathgaze 6.7% $21.23 Tooth Fairy 26.7% $19.65 Vogue 26.7% $16.48 Entombed 26.7% $15.93 | $126.41 +413.9% | $25.23 +2.6% | 6.7% | +110.3% | $24.60 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Tooth Fairy 30.0% $19.65 Vogue 30.0% $16.48 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.60 Entombed 30.0% $9.46 | $63.86 +290.3% | $16.61 +1.5% | 63.3% | +59.2% | $16.36 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator  10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign  10.0% $13.79 Brother  10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +292.3% | $17.01 +30.1% | 50.0% | +91.7% | $13.07 | — |