The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Fragment
1x $0.41
Bock Blocks
5x $0.49
Fusion
2x $0.72
RMX
1x $1.75
System Lock
1x $1.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
18.0% $16.94
Urban Shock
2.5% $12.38
Naga
2.5% $11.53
Firebreathing
18.0% $10.78
Malachite
2.5% $9.89
Serenity
2.5% $6.35
Max Win
$16.94 (+87.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.04 (+0.1%)
Win %
43.5%
Volatility
+48.0%
Cost
$9.03
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $9.03
Ask Price EV $9.04 (+0.1%)
Bid Price EV $7.68 (-15.0%)
Ask Profit $0.01 (+0.1%)
Bid Profit $-1.35 (-15.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.36 (+15.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.01
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.35
Risk
Win Probability 43.5%
Loss Probability 56.5%
Best Case $16.94 (+87.6%)
Worst Case $5.01 (-44.6%)
Volatility +48.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 56.5%
Avg Win +$4.38
Avg Loss -$3.36
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.01 (-44.6%)
Std Dev $4.33
Avg Norm Float 0.1487
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 150h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | System Lock
—
Minimal Wear
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 58S //TOTAL COST $9.03 //ASK PRICE EV $9.04 //BID PRICE EV $7.68 //ASK PROFIT $0.01 (+0.1%) //BID PROFIT $-1.35 (-15.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 43.5% //BEST CASE $16.94 //VOLATILITY +48.0% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
18.0%
$16.94
+$7.91
+87.6%
$14.31
+$5.28
+58.5%
$2.63
15.5%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$12.38
+$3.35
+37.1%
$11.89
+$2.86
+31.7%
$0.49
3.9%
—
WIN
2.5%
$11.53
+$2.50
+27.7%
$10.01
+$0.98
+10.9%
$1.52
13.2%
—
WIN
18.0%
$10.78
+$1.75
+19.3%
$9.15
+$0.12
+1.3%
$1.63
15.1%
—
PAPER WIN
2.5%
$9.89
+$0.86
+9.5%
$8.83
-$0.20
-2.2%
$1.06
10.7%
—
LOSS
2.5%
$6.35
-$2.68
-29.7%
$6.02
-$3.01
-33.3%
$0.33
5.1%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$6.18
-$2.85
-31.6%
$4.92
-$4.11
-45.5%
$1.26
20.4%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$5.73
-$3.30
-36.6%
$4.91
-$4.12
-45.6%
$0.82
14.3%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$5.01
-$4.02
-44.6%
$4.26
-$4.77
-52.8%
$0.75
14.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-6|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-6"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14873,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 10.7765,
"optimistic_value": 10.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.430728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14873,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 5.729,
"optimistic_value": 5.68,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:39.238465Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14873,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 16.936,
"optimistic_value": 16.88,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 14.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.044782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14873,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 6.18,
"optimistic_value": 6.18,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:06.775624Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14873,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 5.006,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 4.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:40.300365Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.14873,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75138a0c07b3",
"realistic_value": 11.5335,
"optimistic_value": 11.39,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Naga",
"conservative_value": 10.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:49.462080Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75138a0c07b3.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0699031,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25ead8f88d62",
"realistic_value": 12.378,
"optimistic_value": 12.07,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Urban Shock",
"conservative_value": 11.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:23:57.222171Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25ead8f88d62.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.074365,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4938e7b7b6cd",
"realistic_value": 9.888,
"optimistic_value": 9.86,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Malachite",
"conservative_value": 8.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:24:22.983591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4938e7b7b6cd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.074365,
"output_skin_id": "skin-43a9e7d8242e",
"realistic_value": 6.3455,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Serenity",
"conservative_value": 6.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Serenity (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:52.443102Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-43a9e7d8242e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a7649c24d0b42723bcc5cf96",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "521998040962761918",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:07.412620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "524249735517574827",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:36.514479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "643593816523454425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:36.514479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "510739041954246190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:56.309444Z"
},
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885184271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:27.985841Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "523123722383769418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:56.309444Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "528753335314230633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:27.985841Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983423969275595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:27.985841Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "492724538182380753",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:28.583358Z"
},
{
"price": 1.31,
"skin_id": "skin-4c2aae5b0b8d",
"listing_id": "660482407759310122",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | System Lock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c2aae5b0b8d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:59:58.834452Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-37:9+collection-set-community-6:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Naga 2.5% $41.56 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Malachite 2.5% $17.85 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 | $51.27 +154.1% | $25.52 +26.5% | 38.5% | +63.4% | $20.18 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 18.0% $10.69 Malachite 2.5% $9.89 Urban Shock 2.5% $8.47 Naga 2.5% $6.64 Serenity 2.5% $6.35 Firebreathing 18.0% $6.12 | $10.69 +101.4% | $5.49 +3.4% | 46.0% | +44.9% | $5.31 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Chroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Naga 7.5% $41.56 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Malachite 7.5% $17.85 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 | $51.27 +146.9% | $24.51 +18.0% | 35.5% | +59.2% | $20.77 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 龍王  3.3% $172.38 Cartel  3.3% $171.06 Kintsugi  30.0% $61.06 Deathgaze  30.0% $59.23 Muertos  3.3% $54.91 | $290.04 +171.3% | $136.38 +27.6% | 36.7% | +97.5% | $106.92 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Chatterbox  5.0% $213.71 Man-o'-war  5.0% $188.20 | $843.46 +54.1% | $617.86 +12.9% | 45.0% | +40.1% | $547.46 | — |