The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Bock Blocks
6x $0.78
Fusion
3x $0.92
Grotto
1x $2.83
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
18.0% $51.27
Naga
2.5% $41.56
Firebreathing
18.0% $31.66
Amberline
18.0% $18.87
Malachite
2.5% $17.85
Galigator
18.0% $14.51
Max Win
$51.27 (+159.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$25.50 (+28.9%)
Win %
38.5%
Volatility
+71.1%
Cost
$19.79
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.79
Ask Price EV $25.50 (+28.9%)
Bid Price EV $21.67 (+9.5%)
Ask Profit $5.71 (+28.9%)
Bid Profit $1.88 (+9.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.83 (+19.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.71
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.88
Risk
Win Probability 38.5%
Loss Probability 61.5%
Best Case $51.27 (+159.1%)
Worst Case $12.04 (-39.1%)
Volatility +71.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 41.0%
Avg Win +$21.68
Avg Loss -$4.29
Bottom 5% Outcome $12.38 (-37.5%)
Std Dev $14.06
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 149h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Factory New
$2.45 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Factory New
$2.46 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.55 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.56 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Grotto
—
Factory New
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 35S //TOTAL COST $19.79 //ASK PRICE EV $25.50 //BID PRICE EV $21.67 //ASK PROFIT $5.71 (+28.9%) //BID PROFIT $1.88 (+9.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 38.5% //BEST CASE $51.27 //VOLATILITY +71.1% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$51.27
+$31.48
+159.1%
$43.51
+$23.72
+119.9%
$7.76
15.1%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$41.56
+$21.77
+110.0%
$31.06
+$11.27
+56.9%
$10.50
25.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$31.66
+$11.87
+60.0%
$29.45
+$9.66
+48.8%
$2.21
7.0%
—
LOSS THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$18.87
-$0.92
-4.7%
$12.97
-$6.82
-34.5%
$5.90
31.3%
—
LOSS
2.5%
$17.85
-$1.94
-9.8%
$15.84
-$3.95
-20.0%
$2.01
11.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$14.51
-$5.28
-26.7%
$13.05
-$6.74
-34.1%
$1.46
10.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$13.72
-$6.07
-30.7%
$11.82
-$7.97
-40.3%
$1.90
13.8%
—
LOSS
2.5%
$12.38
-$7.41
-37.5%
$11.89
-$7.90
-39.9%
$0.49
3.9%
—
LOSS
2.5%
$12.04
-$7.75
-39.1%
$10.44
-$9.35
-47.2%
$1.60
13.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-6|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-6"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 31.657,
"optimistic_value": 31.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 29.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.490012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 14.512,
"optimistic_value": 14.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 13.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.833807Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 51.274,
"optimistic_value": 50.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 43.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.200704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 18.869,
"optimistic_value": 17.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 12.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:10.284461Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 13.717,
"optimistic_value": 13.64,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:38:58.442110Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75138a0c07b3",
"realistic_value": 41.5615,
"optimistic_value": 39.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Naga",
"conservative_value": 31.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:48.590052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75138a0c07b3.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.03286239999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25ead8f88d62",
"realistic_value": 12.378,
"optimistic_value": 12.07,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Urban Shock",
"conservative_value": 11.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:23:57.222171Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25ead8f88d62.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.03496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4938e7b7b6cd",
"realistic_value": 17.8455,
"optimistic_value": 17.17,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Malachite",
"conservative_value": 15.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:23:40.650823Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4938e7b7b6cd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.03496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-43a9e7d8242e",
"realistic_value": 12.0425,
"optimistic_value": 11.5,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Serenity",
"conservative_value": 10.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:12.790937Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-43a9e7d8242e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a7649c24d0b42723bcc5cf96",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885184271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:51.791007Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "523123722383769418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:39.255064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "528753335314230633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:51.791007Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983423969275595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:51.791007Z"
},
{
"price": 2.45,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "506235442367257236",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:51:46.570196Z"
},
{
"price": 2.46,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "506235389470490196",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:51:46.570196Z"
},
{
"price": 2.55,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "509613089304746343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:27.559352Z"
},
{
"price": 2.56,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "500605889842157771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:27.559352Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "518620122758487316",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:27.559352Z"
},
{
"price": 2.83,
"skin_id": "skin-d38eab775911",
"listing_id": "507361237010123437",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Grotto",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d38eab775911.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:21.068290Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-37:9+collection-set-community-6:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Chroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Naga 7.5% $41.56 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Malachite 7.5% $17.85 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 | $51.27 +146.0% | $24.49 +17.5% | 35.5% | +59.0% | $20.84 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 龍王  3.3% $172.38 Cartel  3.3% $171.06 Kintsugi  30.0% $61.06 Deathgaze  30.0% $59.23 Muertos  3.3% $55.21 | $290.04 +172.1% | $136.39 +28.0% | 36.7% | +97.8% | $106.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Chatterbox  5.0% $199.97 Man-o'-war  5.0% $188.20 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $141.08 Fully Tuned  45.0% $105.54 | $199.97 +77.8% | $130.39 +15.9% | 55.0% | +24.2% | $112.46 | — |