The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
RMX
2x $0.34
Fusion
2x $0.40
Fragment
1x $0.41
Bock Blocks
4x $0.46
System Lock
1x $0.71
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
18.0% $10.69
Malachite
2.5% $9.89
Urban Shock
2.5% $8.47
Naga
2.5% $6.64
Serenity
2.5% $6.35
Firebreathing
18.0% $6.12
Max Win
$10.69 (+101.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.49 (+3.4%)
Win %
46.0%
Volatility
+55.8%
Cost
$5.31
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $5.31
Ask Price EV $5.49 (+3.4%)
Bid Price EV $4.63 (-12.9%)
Ask Profit $0.18 (+3.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.68 (-12.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.87 (+16.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.68
Risk
Win Probability 46.0%
Loss Probability 54.0%
Best Case $10.69 (+101.4%)
Worst Case $2.88 (-45.7%)
Volatility +55.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 54.0%
Avg Win +$2.97
Avg Loss -$2.19
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.88 (-45.7%)
Std Dev $2.97
Avg Norm Float 0.2902
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 151h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | System Lock
—
Well-Worn
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 00S //TOTAL COST $5.31 //ASK PRICE EV $5.49 //BID PRICE EV $4.63 //ASK PROFIT $0.18 (+3.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.68 (-12.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.0% //BEST CASE $10.69 //VOLATILITY +55.8% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
18.0%
$10.69
+$5.38
+101.4%
$9.15
+$3.84
+72.3%
$1.54
14.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$9.89
+$4.58
+86.2%
$8.83
+$3.52
+66.3%
$1.06
10.7%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$8.47
+$3.16
+59.5%
$6.00
+$0.69
+13.0%
$2.47
29.1%
—
WIN
2.5%
$6.64
+$1.33
+25.1%
$5.72
+$0.41
+7.7%
$0.92
13.9%
—
WIN
2.5%
$6.35
+$1.04
+19.5%
$6.02
+$0.71
+13.4%
$0.33
5.1%
—
PAPER WIN
18.0%
$6.12
+$0.81
+15.2%
$4.98
-$0.33
-6.2%
$1.14
18.6%
—
LOSS THIN BID
18.0%
$3.56
-$1.75
-33.0%
$2.66
-$2.65
-49.9%
$0.90
25.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.91
-$2.40
-45.2%
$2.61
-$2.70
-50.8%
$0.30
10.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.88
-$2.43
-45.7%
$2.61
-$2.70
-50.8%
$0.27
9.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-6|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-6"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.29016,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 6.117,
"optimistic_value": 6.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 4.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.545500Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.29016,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.558,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 2.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:47.006585Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.29016,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 10.693000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:48.376233Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.29016,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 2.8835,
"optimistic_value": 2.88,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 2.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:54.067411Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.29016,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 2.908,
"optimistic_value": 2.88,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 2.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:53:01.665734Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.29016,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75138a0c07b3",
"realistic_value": 6.6419999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.6,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Naga",
"conservative_value": 5.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:32.638258Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75138a0c07b3.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.13637519999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25ead8f88d62",
"realistic_value": 8.467,
"optimistic_value": 8.18,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Urban Shock",
"conservative_value": 6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:03.174409Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25ead8f88d62.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.14508,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4938e7b7b6cd",
"realistic_value": 9.888,
"optimistic_value": 9.86,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Malachite",
"conservative_value": 8.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:24:22.983591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4938e7b7b6cd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.14508,
"output_skin_id": "skin-43a9e7d8242e",
"realistic_value": 6.3455,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Serenity",
"conservative_value": 6.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Serenity (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:52.443102Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-43a9e7d8242e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a7649c24d0b42723bcc5cf96",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "510739041953589082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:45.394848Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "526501587737943665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:45.394848Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "520872141038016156",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:07:50.517293Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "521998040962761918",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:07.412620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "519746241188751776",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:36.514479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "524249735517574827",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:36.514479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "643593816523454425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:36.514479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "510739041954246190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:56.309444Z"
},
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885184271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:27.985841Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-4c2aae5b0b8d",
"listing_id": "529879235106067680",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-6",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M249 | System Lock",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c2aae5b0b8d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:21:58.516520Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-37:9+collection-set-community-6:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Naga 2.5% $41.56 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Malachite 2.5% $17.85 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 | $51.27 +154.1% | $25.52 +26.5% | 38.5% | +63.4% | $20.18 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 18.0% $16.94 Urban Shock 2.5% $12.38 Naga 2.5% $11.53 Firebreathing 18.0% $10.78 Malachite 2.5% $9.89 Serenity 2.5% $6.35 | $16.94 +87.6% | $9.04 +0.1% | 43.5% | +39.0% | $9.03 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Chroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Naga 7.5% $41.56 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Malachite 7.5% $17.85 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 | $51.27 +146.9% | $24.51 +18.0% | 35.5% | +59.2% | $20.77 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 龍王  3.3% $172.38 Cartel  3.3% $171.06 Kintsugi  30.0% $61.06 Deathgaze  30.0% $59.23 Muertos  3.3% $54.91 | $290.04 +171.3% | $136.38 +27.6% | 36.7% | +97.5% | $106.92 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Chatterbox  5.0% $213.71 Man-o'-war  5.0% $188.20 | $843.46 +54.1% | $617.86 +12.9% | 45.0% | +40.1% | $547.46 | — |