The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Fubar
1x $0.31
Light Box
3x $0.21
Motorized
2x $0.31
Dark Sigil
1x $0.32
Hideout
1x $0.34
Slag
1x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Ghost Crusader
2.0% $10.42
Re-Entry
2.0% $10.16
Black Tie
2.0% $8.33
Firefight
2.0% $6.82
Etch Lord
18.0% $4.45
Block-18
18.0% $4.19
Max Win
$10.42 (+228.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.78 (+19.4%)
Win %
64.0%
Volatility
+56.8%
Cost
$3.17
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.17
Ask Price EV $3.78 (+19.4%)
Bid Price EV $3.40 (+7.1%)
Ask Profit $0.61 (+19.4%)
Bid Profit $0.23 (+7.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.39 (+12.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.61
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.23
Risk
Win Probability 64.0%
Loss Probability 36.0%
Best Case $10.42 (+228.7%)
Worst Case $2.02 (-36.3%)
Volatility +56.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 18.0%
Avg Win +$1.44
Avg Loss -$0.85
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.02 (-36.3%)
Std Dev $1.80
Avg Norm Float 0.1497
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 144h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 00M 55S //TOTAL COST $3.17 //ASK PRICE EV $3.78 //BID PRICE EV $3.40 //ASK PROFIT $0.61 (+19.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.23 (+7.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 64.0% //BEST CASE $10.42 //VOLATILITY +56.8% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$10.42
+$7.25
+228.7%
$9.69
+$6.52
+205.7%
$0.73
7.0%
—
BIG WIN
2.0%
$10.16
+$6.99
+220.4%
$8.63
+$5.46
+172.2%
$1.53
15.0%
—
BIG WIN
2.0%
$8.33
+$5.16
+162.7%
$6.87
+$3.70
+116.7%
$1.46
17.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$6.82
+$3.65
+115.3%
$5.52
+$2.35
+74.1%
$1.30
19.1%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$4.45
+$1.28
+40.3%
$3.86
+$0.69
+21.8%
$0.59
13.2%
—
WIN
18.0%
$4.19
+$1.02
+32.2%
$3.88
+$0.71
+22.4%
$0.31
7.4%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$4.04
+$0.87
+27.3%
$3.70
+$0.53
+16.7%
$0.33
8.3%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$3.32
+$0.15
+4.7%
$2.85
-$0.32
-10.1%
$0.47
14.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$2.63
-$0.54
-17.0%
$2.60
-$0.57
-18.0%
$0.03
1.2%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$2.02
-$1.15
-36.3%
$1.85
-$1.32
-41.6%
$0.17
8.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-12|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14967,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.6305,
"optimistic_value": 2.62,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:03:52.318734Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.10055953125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14967,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.4475,
"optimistic_value": 4.43,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:47.747830Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14967,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.3175,
"optimistic_value": 3.3,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:12.684365Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0926247762,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.0185,
"optimistic_value": 1.98,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:45.638633Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.14967,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4311574b36e",
"realistic_value": 4.035,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor",
"conservative_value": 3.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:00:57.163983Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4311574b36e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.14967,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b60d3982f423",
"realistic_value": 6.824,
"optimistic_value": 6.81,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Firefight",
"conservative_value": 5.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Firefight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T16:17:28.696002Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b60d3982f423.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.14967,
"output_skin_id": "skin-896626717e7c",
"realistic_value": 10.4185,
"optimistic_value": 10.24,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T14:57:12.762479Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-896626717e7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0643581,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0705abcdd5df",
"realistic_value": 10.1575,
"optimistic_value": 10.14,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry",
"conservative_value": 8.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.855036Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0705abcdd5df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.1122525,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8a7c514126f7",
"realistic_value": 8.329,
"optimistic_value": 8.14,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie",
"conservative_value": 6.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Black Tie (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.718736Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8a7c514126f7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a72f606e72177d913908c922",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "645843641569115411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:17.661161Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116523130036718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:20:12.281482Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:20:12.281482Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:20:12.281482Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "505109489448921836",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:38.086604Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "525375522204066055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:09:17.891573Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "520872088106698692",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:55.249753Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:19:38.086604Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "508486392212133206",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:13.182530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "636838417157749708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:59.966069Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-12:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Black Tie 2.0% $8.33 Re-Entry 2.0% $4.88 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Ghost Crusader 2.0% $3.69 Firefight 2.0% $2.63 Red Astor 2.0% $2.35 | $8.33 +248.5% | $2.52 +5.4% | 26.0% | +48.0% | $2.39 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 6.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 6.0% $10.16 Black Tie 6.0% $8.33 Firefight 6.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +174.9% | $4.71 +24.3% | 58.0% | +58.0% | $3.79 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 8.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 8.0% $10.16 Black Tie 8.0% $8.33 Firefight 8.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +149.8% | $5.18 +24.1% | 56.0% | +55.6% | $4.17 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 4.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 4.0% $10.16 Black Tie 4.0% $8.33 Firefight 4.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +200.2% | $4.25 +22.4% | 52.0% | +56.6% | $3.47 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  30.0% $23.51 Primal Saber  3.3% $18.44 Asiimov  3.3% $18.33 Fleet Flock  3.3% $16.50 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 Olympus  30.0% $8.82 | $23.51 +65.8% | $15.95 +12.5% | 70.0% | +40.6% | $14.18 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Chantico's Fire  20.0% $214.02 Judgement of Anubis  20.0% $177.46 Inheritance  30.0% $135.61 Chrome Cannon  30.0% $64.35 | $214.02 +72.6% | $138.28 +11.5% | 70.0% | +44.9% | $124.00 | — |