The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Fubar
1x $0.31
Slag
2x $0.16
Hideout
2x $0.18
Light Box
3x $0.21
Dark Sigil
1x $0.32
Motorized
1x $0.35
↓
Possible Outputs
Black Tie
2.0% $8.33
Re-Entry
2.0% $4.88
Block-18
18.0% $4.19
Ghost Crusader
2.0% $3.69
Firefight
2.0% $2.63
Red Astor
2.0% $2.35
Max Win
$8.33 (+248.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.52 (+5.4%)
Win %
26.0%
Volatility
+55.1%
Cost
$2.39
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.39
Ask Price EV $2.52 (+5.4%)
Bid Price EV $2.28 (-4.4%)
Ask Profit $0.13 (+5.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.11 (-4.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+9.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.13
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.11
Risk
Win Probability 26.0%
Loss Probability 74.0%
Best Case $8.33 (+248.5%)
Worst Case $1.47 (-38.5%)
Volatility +55.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 36.0%
Avg Win +$2.01
Avg Loss -$0.53
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.47 (-38.5%)
Std Dev $1.32
Avg Norm Float 0.1992
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 145h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Fubar
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 04M 28S //TOTAL COST $2.39 //ASK PRICE EV $2.52 //BID PRICE EV $2.28 //ASK PROFIT $0.13 (+5.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.11 (-4.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.0% //BEST CASE $8.33 //VOLATILITY +55.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$8.33
+$5.94
+248.5%
$6.87
+$4.48
+187.4%
$1.46
17.5%
—
BIG WIN
2.0%
$4.88
+$2.49
+104.1%
$3.86
+$1.47
+61.5%
$1.02
20.9%
—
BIG WIN
18.0%
$4.19
+$1.80
+75.3%
$3.88
+$1.49
+62.3%
$0.31
7.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.0%
$3.69
+$1.30
+54.2%
$3.57
+$1.18
+49.4%
$0.12
3.2%
—
PAPER WIN
2.0%
$2.63
+$0.24
+10.1%
$2.27
-$0.12
-5.0%
$0.36
13.7%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$2.35
-$0.04
-1.5%
$1.98
-$0.41
-17.2%
$0.37
15.9%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$2.33
-$0.06
-2.6%
$2.08
-$0.31
-13.0%
$0.25
10.7%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$2.02
-$0.37
-15.5%
$1.85
-$0.54
-22.6%
$0.17
8.3%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$1.56
-$0.83
-34.7%
$1.43
-$0.96
-40.2%
$0.13
8.3%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$1.47
-$0.92
-38.5%
$1.39
-$1.00
-41.8%
$0.08
5.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-12|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.19921,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.47,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:24.497326Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.13384421875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.19921,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 2.328,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 2.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:31.371672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.19921,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.56,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:39.434678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.12328310059999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.0185,
"optimistic_value": 1.98,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:12.630618Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.19921,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4311574b36e",
"realistic_value": 2.3539999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.34,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor",
"conservative_value": 1.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:04.246642Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4311574b36e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.19921,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b60d3982f423",
"realistic_value": 2.631,
"optimistic_value": 2.61,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Firefight",
"conservative_value": 2.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:17.625296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b60d3982f423.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.19921,
"output_skin_id": "skin-896626717e7c",
"realistic_value": 3.6865,
"optimistic_value": 3.62,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader",
"conservative_value": 3.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:41.691881Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-896626717e7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0856603,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0705abcdd5df",
"realistic_value": 4.8775,
"optimistic_value": 4.86,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry",
"conservative_value": 3.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:32:29.292943Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0705abcdd5df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.1494075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8a7c514126f7",
"realistic_value": 8.329,
"optimistic_value": 8.14,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie",
"conservative_value": 6.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Black Tie (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.718736Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8a7c514126f7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a72f606e72177d913908c922",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-a7997cc94140",
"listing_id": "645843641569115411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fubar",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7997cc94140.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:19:38.024436Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "526501587737921273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:15.335484Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "528753387756713457",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:39.363233Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "496101493247435159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:15.335484Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "514116523129581066",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:39.363233Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116523130036718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:56.286676Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:56.286676Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:56.286676Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "525375522204066055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:33.516445Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:12.090797Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-12:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 2.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 2.0% $10.16 Black Tie 2.0% $8.33 Firefight 2.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +228.7% | $3.78 +19.4% | 64.0% | +48.9% | $3.17 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 4.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 4.0% $10.16 Black Tie 4.0% $8.33 Firefight 4.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +206.4% | $4.25 +24.9% | 52.0% | +57.8% | $3.40 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 8.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 8.0% $10.16 Black Tie 8.0% $8.33 Firefight 8.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +150.4% | $5.17 +24.4% | 56.0% | +55.8% | $4.16 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 6.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 6.0% $10.16 Black Tie 6.0% $8.33 Firefight 6.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +174.9% | $4.71 +24.3% | 58.0% | +58.0% | $3.79 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  30.0% $23.51 Primal Saber  3.3% $18.44 Asiimov  3.3% $18.33 Fleet Flock  3.3% $16.50 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 Olympus  30.0% $8.82 | $23.51 +66.5% | $15.95 +12.9% | 70.0% | +40.8% | $14.12 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Chantico's Fire  30.0% $214.02 Judgement of Anubis  30.0% $177.46 Inheritance  20.0% $135.61 Chrome Cannon  20.0% $64.35 | $214.02 +55.0% | $157.44 +14.1% | 60.0% | +39.1% | $138.04 | — |