The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Atlas
1x $0.93
Slag
2x $0.38
Dezastre
4x $0.48
Irezumi
1x $0.59
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
Hideout
1x $1.51
↓
Possible Outputs
Ghost Crusader
2.0% $39.11
Firefight
2.0% $23.12
Black Tie
2.0% $20.99
Red Astor
2.0% $13.77
Etch Lord
18.0% $13.06
Re-Entry
2.0% $10.16
Max Win
$39.11 (+287.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.96 (-1.4%)
Win %
28.0%
Volatility
+56.1%
Cost
$10.10
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.10
Ask Price EV $9.96 (-1.4%)
Bid Price EV $8.72 (-13.7%)
Ask Profit $-0.14 (-1.4%)
Bid Profit $-1.38 (-13.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.24 (+12.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.14
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.38
Risk
Win Probability 28.0%
Loss Probability 72.0%
Best Case $39.11 (+287.2%)
Worst Case $4.09 (-59.5%)
Volatility +56.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 18.0%
Avg Win +$5.95
Avg Loss -$2.51
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.09 (-59.5%)
Std Dev $5.67
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 146h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Atlas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.10 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 04M 17S //TOTAL COST $10.10 //ASK PRICE EV $9.96 //BID PRICE EV $8.72 //ASK PROFIT $-0.14 (-1.4%) //BID PROFIT $-1.38 (-13.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 28.0% //BEST CASE $39.11 //VOLATILITY +56.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$39.11
+$29.01
+287.2%
$29.99
+$19.89
+196.9%
$9.12
23.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$23.12
+$13.02
+128.9%
$17.75
+$7.65
+75.7%
$5.37
23.2%
—
BIG WIN
2.0%
$20.99
+$10.89
+107.8%
$18.87
+$8.77
+86.8%
$2.11
10.1%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$13.77
+$3.67
+36.3%
$11.24
+$1.14
+11.3%
$2.53
18.4%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$13.06
+$2.96
+29.3%
$12.03
+$1.93
+19.1%
$1.03
7.9%
—
PAPER WIN
2.0%
$10.16
+$0.06
+0.6%
$8.63
-$1.47
-14.6%
$1.53
15.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$9.49
-$0.61
-6.1%
$7.84
-$2.26
-22.4%
$1.65
17.4%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$8.90
-$1.20
-11.9%
$7.77
-$2.33
-23.1%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$7.89
-$2.21
-21.9%
$7.43
-$2.67
-26.4%
$0.46
5.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.09
-$6.01
-59.5%
$3.74
-$6.36
-63.0%
$0.35
8.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-12|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:16.444156Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04684984375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4875,
"optimistic_value": 9.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:24.636000Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0431531078,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.0875,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:32.278811Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4311574b36e",
"realistic_value": 13.769,
"optimistic_value": 13.58,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor",
"conservative_value": 11.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:45.660011Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4311574b36e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b60d3982f423",
"realistic_value": 23.12,
"optimistic_value": 20.32,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Firefight",
"conservative_value": 17.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:36.537583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b60d3982f423.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-896626717e7c",
"realistic_value": 39.112,
"optimistic_value": 38.65,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader",
"conservative_value": 29.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:32:19.579903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-896626717e7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0299839,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0705abcdd5df",
"realistic_value": 10.1575,
"optimistic_value": 10.14,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry",
"conservative_value": 8.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.855036Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0705abcdd5df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0522975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8a7c514126f7",
"realistic_value": 20.985,
"optimistic_value": 19.9,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie",
"conservative_value": 18.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:32:35.190927Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8a7c514126f7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a72f606e72177d913908c922",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-b86e591b7a8e",
"listing_id": "516368436280195262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Atlas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Atlas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b86e591b7a8e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:14:40.715847Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "508486392212133206",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:32.622734Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "636838417157749708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:11.976800Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "493850324808131632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:32.622734Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "625577443252700102",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:38.073787Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:11.976800Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:01.898348Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:18:45.182896Z"
},
{
"price": 2.1,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "499479937455276409",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:27.309063Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "528753335311947405",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:27.309063Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-12:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 2.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 2.0% $10.16 Black Tie 2.0% $8.33 Firefight 2.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +228.7% | $3.78 +19.4% | 64.0% | +48.9% | $3.17 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Black Tie 2.0% $8.33 Re-Entry 2.0% $4.88 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Ghost Crusader 2.0% $3.69 Firefight 2.0% $2.63 Red Astor 2.0% $2.35 | $8.33 +248.5% | $2.52 +5.4% | 26.0% | +48.0% | $2.39 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 4.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 4.0% $10.16 Black Tie 4.0% $8.33 Firefight 4.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +206.4% | $4.25 +24.9% | 52.0% | +57.8% | $3.40 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 8.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 8.0% $10.16 Black Tie 8.0% $8.33 Firefight 8.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +150.4% | $5.17 +24.4% | 56.0% | +55.8% | $4.16 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 6.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 6.0% $10.16 Black Tie 6.0% $8.33 Firefight 6.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +174.9% | $4.71 +24.3% | 58.0% | +58.0% | $3.79 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  30.0% $23.51 Primal Saber  3.3% $18.44 Asiimov  3.3% $18.33 Fleet Flock  3.3% $16.50 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 Olympus  30.0% $8.82 | $23.51 +66.5% | $15.95 +12.9% | 70.0% | +40.8% | $14.12 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Chantico's Fire  30.0% $214.02 Judgement of Anubis  30.0% $177.46 Inheritance  20.0% $135.61 Chrome Cannon  20.0% $64.35 | $214.02 +55.0% | $157.44 +14.1% | 60.0% | +39.1% | $138.04 | — |