The Recoil Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Destroyer
3x $1.86
Roadblock
1x $2.54
Green Line
1x $1.33
Late Night Transit
3x $1.75
Run Run Run
1x $2.78
2A2F
1x $2.83
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
20.0% $64.86
Derailment
20.0% $44.79
Charged Up
20.0% $22.78
Dragon Tech
8.0% $4.38
Vent Rush
8.0% $4.20
Downtown
8.0% $3.53
Max Win
$64.86 (+180.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$27.73 (+20.1%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+104.5%
Cost
$23.09
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $23.09
Ask Price EV $27.73 (+20.1%)
Bid Price EV $26.47 (+14.6%)
Ask Profit $4.64 (+20.1%)
Bid Profit $3.38 (+14.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.26 (+5.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.64
Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.38
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+180.9%)
Worst Case $1.68 (-92.7%)
Volatility +104.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$31.73
Avg Loss -$13.42
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.68 (-92.7%)
Std Dev $24.12
Avg Norm Float 0.0956
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 147h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Factory New
$2.54 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Field-Tested
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Field-Tested
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$2.78 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.99 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 01M 41S //TOTAL COST $23.09 //ASK PRICE EV $27.73 //BID PRICE EV $26.47 //ASK PROFIT $4.64 (+20.1%) //BID PROFIT $3.38 (+14.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +104.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$64.86
+$41.77
+180.9%
$61.61
+$38.52
+166.8%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$44.79
+$21.70
+94.0%
$41.83
+$18.74
+81.2%
$2.96
6.6%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$22.78
-$0.31
-1.3%
$22.77
-$0.32
-1.4%
$0.01
0.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.38
-$18.71
-81.0%
$4.37
-$18.72
-81.1%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.20
-$18.89
-81.8%
$4.19
-$18.90
-81.9%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.53
-$19.56
-84.7%
$3.52
-$19.57
-84.8%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.75
-$21.34
-92.4%
$1.61
-$21.48
-93.0%
$0.14
8.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.68
-$21.41
-92.7%
$1.63
-$21.46
-92.9%
$0.05
3.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.066899,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 44.7855,
"optimistic_value": 44.74,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 41.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:39.732580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.1498358,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.09557,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 22.78,
"optimistic_value": 22.78,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 22.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:40.467002Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09557,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 1.75,
"optimistic_value": 1.75,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:28.906799Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0621205,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.53,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 3.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:06.098509Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.066899,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.2,
"optimistic_value": 4.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 4.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:34.327800Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09557,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 1.681,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:20.739184Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.066899,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.38,
"optimistic_value": 4.38,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:36.545435Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a0b6f7bf1681c5ece8fe4181",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "630083017705289418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:30.774428Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "596305411434979669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:30.774428Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "635712445338920863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:30.774428Z"
},
{
"price": 2.54,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "523123091050361242",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:25.037698Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "528753387757812573",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:17.066102Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "494976338032637358",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:09:02.271251Z"
},
{
"price": 2.78,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "527627487625014008",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:28.901446Z"
},
{
"price": 2.83,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "517494388634031034",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:00.568887Z"
},
{
"price": 2.99,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "514116688950627510",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:17.879748Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "502857689862881548",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:17.879748Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:4+collection-set-train-2025:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.77 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Crazy 8 8.0% $0.75 Flora Carnivora 8.0% $0.74 Vent Rush 8.0% $0.70 | $9.67 +131.9% | $5.19 +24.5% | 60.0% | +79.0% | $4.17 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Charged Up 20.0% $63.78 Derailment 20.0% $44.79 Crazy 8 8.0% $10.91 Flora Carnivora 8.0% $10.55 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.38 | $64.86 +102.6% | $37.37 +16.8% | 60.0% | +70.0% | $32.01 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.34 Charged Up 16.7% $22.78 Dragon Tech 10.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 10.0% $4.20 Downtown 10.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +244.5% | $23.55 +25.1% | 50.0% | +115.2% | $18.83 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.79 Charged Up 13.3% $22.78 Dragon Tech 12.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 12.0% $4.20 Downtown 12.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +307.2% | $19.52 +22.5% | 40.0% | +132.7% | $15.93 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $44.34 Charged Up 23.3% $22.78 Dragon Tech 6.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 6.0% $4.20 Downtown 6.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +143.8% | $31.73 +19.3% | 46.7% | +79.8% | $26.60 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $44.79 Charged Up 10.0% $22.78 Dragon Tech 14.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 14.0% $4.20 Downtown 14.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +399.7% | $15.42 +18.8% | 30.0% | +152.3% | $12.98 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $44.79 Charged Up 6.7% $22.78 Dragon Tech 16.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 16.0% $4.20 Downtown 16.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +549.9% | $11.32 +13.4% | 20.0% | +173.6% | $9.98 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Kiss♥Love  16.7% $37.59 Ice Coaled  16.7% $27.70 Visions  16.7% $24.97 | $597.10 +220.2% | $237.93 +27.6% | 50.0% | +125.4% | $186.47 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Printstream  40.0% $93.15 Chromatic Aberration  40.0% $65.15 | $663.30 +295.7% | $195.98 +16.9% | 20.0% | +139.6% | $167.63 | — |