The Recoil Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Poly Mag
2x $0.13
Destroyer
2x $0.14
Late Night Transit
1x $0.51
Green Line
4x $0.58
2A2F
1x $0.76
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
20.0% $9.68
Charged Up
20.0% $7.77
Derailment
20.0% $7.13
Crazy 8
8.0% $0.76
Flora Carnivora
8.0% $0.74
Vent Rush
8.0% $0.70
Max Win
$9.68 (+126.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.20 (+21.4%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+87.9%
Cost
$4.28
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.28
Ask Price EV $5.20 (+21.4%)
Bid Price EV $5.00 (+16.9%)
Ask Profit $0.92 (+21.4%)
Bid Profit $0.72 (+16.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.19 (+4.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.92
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.72
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $9.68 (+126.1%)
Worst Case $0.65 (-84.8%)
Volatility +87.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.91
Avg Loss -$3.58
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.65 (-84.8%)
Std Dev $3.76
Avg Norm Float 0.3283
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 25h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Field-Tested
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 04M 24S //TOTAL COST $4.28 //ASK PRICE EV $5.20 //BID PRICE EV $5.00 //ASK PROFIT $0.92 (+21.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.72 (+16.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $9.68 //VOLATILITY +87.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$9.68
+$5.40
+126.1%
$9.66
+$5.38
+125.7%
$0.02
0.2%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$7.77
+$3.49
+81.5%
$7.66
+$3.38
+79.0%
$0.11
1.4%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$7.13
+$2.85
+66.6%
$6.40
+$2.12
+49.5%
$0.73
10.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.76
-$3.52
-82.2%
$0.70
-$3.58
-83.6%
$0.06
8.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$3.54
-82.8%
$0.69
-$3.59
-83.9%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.70
-$3.58
-83.6%
$0.61
-$3.67
-85.7%
$0.09
13.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.67
-$3.61
-84.4%
$0.62
-$3.66
-85.5%
$0.05
7.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.65
-$3.63
-84.8%
$0.61
-$3.67
-85.7%
$0.04
6.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.229838,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.3686396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.677,
"optimistic_value": 9.67,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:17.740443Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.32834,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.77,
"optimistic_value": 7.77,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:02.399773Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.32834,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.7375,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:23.513038Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.21342100000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 0.651,
"optimistic_value": 0.63,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:56.829849Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.229838,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 0.7034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:32:58.063801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.32834,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.7635,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:15.038257Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.229838,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 0.6675,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:03:33.199079Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_a0b6f7bf1681c5ece8fe4181",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "515242588554922957",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:09.661316Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "524249735518461147",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:03:16.138028Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "525374890937807815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:03:16.138028Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "492724538183414529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:09.661316Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "503983589619599383",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:35.771232Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990789045428187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:32.562187Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "523123888072866142",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:32.562187Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990789044994819",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:32.562187Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "527627487624035384",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:32.562187Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "501731789730606749",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:57.689107Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:4+collection-set-train-2025:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.72 Charged Up 20.0% $22.78 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 8.0% $4.20 Downtown 8.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +180.7% | $27.72 +19.9% | 40.0% | +94.1% | $23.11 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Charged Up 20.0% $63.78 Derailment 20.0% $44.72 Crazy 8 8.0% $10.92 Flora Carnivora 8.0% $10.54 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.38 | $64.86 +101.5% | $37.36 +16.1% | 60.0% | +69.6% | $32.19 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.77 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.74 Flora Carnivora 6.0% $0.74 Vent Rush 6.0% $0.70 | $9.67 +100.2% | $5.94 +23.0% | 70.0% | +63.0% | $4.83 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.72 Charged Up 13.3% $22.78 Dragon Tech 12.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 12.0% $4.20 Downtown 12.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +307.2% | $19.51 +22.5% | 40.0% | +132.7% | $15.93 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $45.18 Charged Up 16.7% $22.78 Dragon Tech 10.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 10.0% $4.20 Downtown 10.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +229.9% | $23.69 +20.5% | 50.0% | +110.9% | $19.66 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $45.18 Charged Up 10.0% $22.78 Dragon Tech 14.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 14.0% $4.20 Downtown 14.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +399.7% | $15.46 +19.1% | 30.0% | +152.7% | $12.98 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $45.18 Charged Up 6.7% $22.78 Dragon Tech 16.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 16.0% $4.20 Downtown 16.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +549.9% | $11.34 +13.6% | 20.0% | +174.0% | $9.98 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Kiss♥Love  16.7% $37.59 Ice Coaled  16.7% $27.70 Visions  16.7% $24.97 | $597.10 +207.5% | $237.93 +22.5% | 50.0% | +120.4% | $194.19 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Printstream  40.0% $95.50 Chromatic Aberration  40.0% $65.21 | $663.30 +294.7% | $196.95 +17.2% | 20.0% | +139.0% | $168.06 | — |