The Recoil Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Factory New +16.8%Field-Tested +24.5%Minimal Wear +20.1%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Destroyer

3x $2.00

Roadblock

1x $2.54

2A2F

2x $2.83

Late Night Transit

2x $3.00

Run Run Run

1x $3.52

Green Line

1x $5.00

↓

Possible Outputs

Whiteout

20.0% $64.86

Charged Up

20.0% $63.78

Derailment

20.0% $44.79

Crazy 8

8.0% $10.91

Flora Carnivora

8.0% $10.55

Dragon Tech

8.0% $4.38

Max Win

$64.86 (+102.6%)

EV (ROI %)

$37.37 (+16.8%)

Win %

60.0%

Volatility

+81.6%

Cost

$32.01

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $32.01

Ask Price EV $37.37 (+16.8%)

Bid Price EV $35.04 (+9.5%)

Ask Profit $5.36 (+16.8%)

Bid Profit $3.03 (+9.5%)

Liquidity Gap $2.33 (+7.3%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.36

Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.03

Risk

Win Probability 60.0%

Loss Probability 40.0%

Best Case $64.86 (+102.6%)

Worst Case $3.53 (-89.0%)

Volatility +81.6%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$25.80

Avg Loss -$25.29

Bottom 5% Outcome $3.53 (-89.0%)

Std Dev $26.11

Avg Norm Float 0.0699

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 22m

Oldest Output Price 147h 43m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Galil AR | Destroyer

—

Factory New

$2.00 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Destroyer

—

Factory New

$2.01 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Roadblock

—

Factory New

$2.54 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Destroyer

—

Factory New

$2.92 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$2.83 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Minimal Wear

$3.00 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Run Run Run

—

Minimal Wear

$3.52 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Minimal Wear

$4.00 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$4.19 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Minimal Wear

$5.00 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 01M 17S //TOTAL COST $32.01 //ASK PRICE EV $37.37 //BID PRICE EV $35.04 //ASK PROFIT $5.36 (+16.8%) //BID PROFIT $3.03 (+9.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +81.6% //

Possible Outputs · 8

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.048915999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 44.7855,
      "optimistic_value": 44.74,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 41.83,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:39.732580Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.1256872,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 64.8635,
      "optimistic_value": 64.79,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 61.61,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.06988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 63.780499999999996,
      "optimistic_value": 62.72,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 58.44,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:09:04.348937Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.06988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
      "realistic_value": 10.5525,
      "optimistic_value": 10.5,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
      "conservative_value": 10.3,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:18.676901Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.045422,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
      "realistic_value": 3.53,
      "optimistic_value": 3.53,
      "output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
      "conservative_value": 3.52,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:06.098509Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.048915999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
      "realistic_value": 4.2,
      "optimistic_value": 4.2,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
      "conservative_value": 4.19,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:34.327800Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.06988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
      "realistic_value": 10.914,
      "optimistic_value": 10.9,
      "output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
      "conservative_value": 10.89,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:22.780877Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.048915999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
      "realistic_value": 4.38,
      "optimistic_value": 4.38,
      "output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
      "conservative_value": 4.37,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:36.545435Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_a0b6f7bf1681c5ece8fe4181",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 2,
      "skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
      "listing_id": "596305411434979669",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:30.774428Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.01,
      "skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
      "listing_id": "635712445338920863",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:30.774428Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.54,
      "skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
      "listing_id": "523123091050361242",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:25.037698Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.92,
      "skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
      "listing_id": "518620288312839208",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:30.774428Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.83,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "517494388634031034",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:00.568887Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "502857689862881548",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:17.879748Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
      "listing_id": "500605837397320439",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:28.901446Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "490472790738021783",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:17.879748Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "642467916639686441",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:00.568887Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "508487189340410930",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:17.918020Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:4+collection-set-train-2025:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.77 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Crazy 8 8.0% $0.75 Flora Carnivora 8.0% $0.74 Vent Rush 8.0% $0.70	$9.67 +131.9%	$5.19 +24.5%	60.0%	+79.0%	$4.17	—
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.79 Charged Up 20.0% $22.78 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 8.0% $4.20 Downtown 8.0% $3.53	$64.86 +180.9%	$27.73 +20.1%	40.0%	+94.3%	$23.09	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.34 Charged Up 16.7% $22.78 Dragon Tech 10.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 10.0% $4.20 Downtown 10.0% $3.53	$64.86 +244.5%	$23.55 +25.1%	50.0%	+115.2%	$18.83	—
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.79 Charged Up 13.3% $22.78 Dragon Tech 12.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 12.0% $4.20 Downtown 12.0% $3.53	$64.86 +307.2%	$19.52 +22.5%	40.0%	+132.7%	$15.93	—
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $44.34 Charged Up 23.3% $22.78 Dragon Tech 6.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 6.0% $4.20 Downtown 6.0% $3.53	$64.86 +143.8%	$31.73 +19.3%	46.7%	+79.8%	$26.60	—
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $44.79 Charged Up 10.0% $22.78 Dragon Tech 14.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 14.0% $4.20 Downtown 14.0% $3.53	$64.86 +399.7%	$15.42 +18.8%	30.0%	+152.3%	$12.98	—
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $44.79 Charged Up 6.7% $22.78 Dragon Tech 16.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 16.0% $4.20 Downtown 16.0% $3.53	$64.86 +549.9%	$11.32 +13.4%	20.0%	+173.6%	$9.98	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 25.0% $294.44 Kiss♥Love 16.7% $37.59 Ice Coaled 16.7% $27.70 Visions 16.7% $24.97	$597.10 +220.2%	$237.93 +27.6%	50.0%	+125.4%	$186.47	—
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear	LongDog 20.0% $663.30 Printstream 40.0% $93.15 Chromatic Aberration 40.0% $65.15	$663.30 +295.7%	$195.98 +16.9%	20.0%	+139.6%	$167.63	—