The Recoil Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Roadblock
1x $0.32
Motorized
3x $0.19
Slag
1x $0.19
Light Box
3x $0.21
Dark Sigil
2x $0.30
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
18.0% $4.45
Block-18
18.0% $4.19
Just Smile
18.0% $3.34
Hybrid
18.0% $2.65
Crazy 8
2.0% $2.47
Flora Carnivora
2.0% $2.41
Max Win
$4.45 (+64.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.18 (+17.3%)
Win %
54.0%
Volatility
+36.4%
Cost
$2.71
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.71
Ask Price EV $3.18 (+17.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.87 (+5.9%)
Ask Profit $0.47 (+17.3%)
Bid Profit $0.16 (+5.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.31 (+11.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.47
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.16
Risk
Win Probability 54.0%
Loss Probability 46.0%
Best Case $4.45 (+64.3%)
Worst Case $1.66 (-38.6%)
Volatility +36.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 24.0%
Avg Win +$1.29
Avg Loss -$0.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.81 (-33.3%)
Std Dev $0.99
Avg Norm Float 0.1491
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 18h 56m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 05M 16S //TOTAL COST $2.71 //ASK PRICE EV $3.18 //BID PRICE EV $2.87 //ASK PROFIT $0.47 (+17.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.16 (+5.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 54.0% //BEST CASE $4.45 //VOLATILITY +36.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$4.45
+$1.74
+64.3%
$3.77
+$1.06
+39.1%
$0.68
15.3%
—
BIG WIN
18.0%
$4.19
+$1.48
+54.6%
$3.88
+$1.17
+43.2%
$0.31
7.4%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$3.34
+$0.63
+23.4%
$2.85
+$0.14
+5.2%
$0.49
14.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$2.65
-$0.06
-2.2%
$2.60
-$0.11
-4.1%
$0.05
1.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$2.47
-$0.24
-8.7%
$2.12
-$0.59
-21.8%
$0.35
14.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$2.41
-$0.30
-11.1%
$2.15
-$0.56
-20.7%
$0.26
10.8%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$1.90
-$0.81
-29.7%
$1.85
-$0.86
-31.7%
$0.05
2.9%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$1.81
-$0.90
-33.3%
$1.74
-$0.97
-35.8%
$0.07
3.8%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$1.73
-$0.98
-36.2%
$1.54
-$1.17
-43.2%
$0.19
11.0%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$1.66
-$1.05
-38.6%
$1.40
-$1.31
-48.3%
$0.26
15.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14912,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:12.204578Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.10019,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14912,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.4535,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:43.241962Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14912,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.3435,
"optimistic_value": 3.34,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:08.942639Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.09228440319999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:32.054019Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.14912,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 2.409,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 2.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:04.040067Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.096928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 1.664,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 1.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:26.013571Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.10438399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.7295,
"optimistic_value": 1.67,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:33:58.182506Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.14912,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 2.4735,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 2.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:03:59.391044Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.10438399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.8085,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:25.143386Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_9cf4f8f808b60ee129d8705f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "498353924438113759",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:40.206679Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "506235389470544232",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:22.970937Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "496101493247435159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:43.895274Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:53.878953Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:53.878953Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:53.878953Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505109489449485524",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:36:47.550108Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "494976443342801634",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:24:50.901899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:24:50.901899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:36:47.550108Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-31:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Etch Lord 18.0% $2.34 Analog Input 18.0% $1.90 Downtown 2.0% $1.66 Just Smile 18.0% $1.56 Hybrid 18.0% $1.47 | $4.19 +120.6% | $2.18 +14.8% | 54.0% | +50.2% | $1.90 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 14.0% $4.46 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Just Smile 14.0% $3.34 Hybrid 14.0% $2.65 Crazy 8 6.0% $2.47 Flora Carnivora 6.0% $2.40 | $4.46 +78.4% | $2.92 +16.9% | 56.0% | +31.5% | $2.50 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.46 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Hybrid 16.0% $2.65 Crazy 8 4.0% $2.47 Flora Carnivora 4.0% $2.40 | $4.46 +65.8% | $3.05 +13.4% | 48.0% | +28.7% | $2.69 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 12.0% $8.90 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.54 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Vent Rush 8.0% $4.34 Analog Input 12.0% $4.13 Just Smile 12.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +138.5% | $4.16 +11.5% | 52.0% | +44.9% | $3.73 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $4.46 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Just Smile 10.0% $3.34 Hybrid 10.0% $2.65 Crazy 8 10.0% $2.47 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $2.40 | $4.46 +84.3% | $2.67 +10.2% | 50.0% | +32.3% | $2.42 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  20.0% $23.51 Ice Coaled  13.3% $16.45 Jawbreaker  20.0% $14.90 Olympus  20.0% $8.47 Kiss♥Love  13.3% $7.21 Visions  13.3% $5.94 | $23.51 +99.9% | $13.32 +13.3% | 53.3% | +53.5% | $11.76 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  20.0% $135.61 Printstream  30.0% $94.76 Chrome Cannon  20.0% $64.35 Chromatic Aberration  30.0% $37.21 | $135.61 +89.7% | $79.58 +11.3% | 50.0% | +50.1% | $71.50 | — |