The Recoil Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Monkeyflage
1x $0.18
Hideout
4x $0.16
Dark Sigil
1x $0.17
Slag
1x $0.19
Light Box
3x $0.21
↓
Possible Outputs
Block-18
18.0% $4.19
Etch Lord
18.0% $2.35
Analog Input
18.0% $1.90
Dragon Tech
2.0% $1.88
Vent Rush
2.0% $1.82
Downtown
2.0% $1.66
Max Win
$4.19 (+103.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.22 (+7.5%)
Win %
36.0%
Volatility
+47.7%
Cost
$2.06
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.06
Ask Price EV $2.22 (+7.5%)
Bid Price EV $2.04 (-0.8%)
Ask Profit $0.15 (+7.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.02 (-0.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.17 (+8.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.15
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.02
Risk
Win Probability 36.0%
Loss Probability 64.0%
Best Case $4.19 (+103.4%)
Worst Case $0.95 (-53.7%)
Volatility +47.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 22.0%
Avg Win +$1.21
Avg Loss -$0.44
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.47 (-28.6%)
Std Dev $0.98
Avg Norm Float 0.2120
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 19h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Monkeyflage
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 44S //TOTAL COST $2.06 //ASK PRICE EV $2.22 //BID PRICE EV $2.04 //ASK PROFIT $0.15 (+7.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.02 (-0.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.0% //BEST CASE $4.19 //VOLATILITY +47.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
18.0%
$4.19
+$2.13
+103.4%
$3.88
+$1.82
+88.3%
$0.31
7.4%
—
SMALL WIN
18.0%
$2.35
+$0.29
+13.9%
$2.07
+$0.01
+0.5%
$0.28
11.8%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$1.90
-$0.16
-7.5%
$1.85
-$0.21
-10.2%
$0.05
2.9%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$1.88
-$0.18
-8.6%
$1.72
-$0.34
-16.5%
$0.16
8.7%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$1.82
-$0.24
-11.6%
$1.54
-$0.52
-25.2%
$0.28
15.4%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$1.66
-$0.40
-19.2%
$1.40
-$0.66
-32.0%
$0.26
15.9%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$1.56
-$0.50
-24.3%
$1.43
-$0.63
-30.6%
$0.13
8.3%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$1.47
-$0.59
-28.6%
$1.39
-$0.67
-32.5%
$0.08
5.4%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.18
-$0.88
-42.7%
$1.01
-$1.05
-51.0%
$0.17
14.4%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$0.95
-$1.11
-53.7%
$0.89
-$1.17
-56.8%
$0.06
6.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.47,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:31:39.969537Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.1424375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 2.347,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 2.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:53.160842Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.56,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:39.434678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.13119831999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:34.770098Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.954,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:52.121742Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.1378,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 1.664,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 1.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:26.013571Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.14839999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.8205,
"optimistic_value": 1.81,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:25:47.008593Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 1.18,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:23.282556Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.14839999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.8835,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:34.494695Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_9cf4f8f808b60ee129d8705f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf8d25d8a85c",
"listing_id": "510738823410791686",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Monkeyflage",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf8d25d8a85c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:28.159153Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "503983642533474127",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:59.006228Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "519746241189696524",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:31:01.076812Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "507360492276906205",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:59.006228Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "496101493247435159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:48.281236Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "514116523129581066",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:59.006228Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:57.337503Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:57.337503Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:57.337503Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "499480042829003797",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:04.823090Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-31:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.43 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.32 Hybrid 18.0% $2.65 Crazy 8 2.0% $2.47 Flora Carnivora 2.0% $2.41 | $4.43 +65.4% | $3.17 +18.5% | 54.0% | +27.6% | $2.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.43 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Hybrid 16.0% $2.65 Crazy 8 4.0% $2.47 Flora Carnivora 4.0% $2.41 | $4.43 +70.5% | $3.05 +17.3% | 64.0% | +29.4% | $2.60 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 14.0% $8.90 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.43 Analog Input 14.0% $4.13 Just Smile 14.0% $3.32 Downtown 6.0% $3.19 Hybrid 14.0% $2.65 | $8.90 +160.1% | $3.98 +16.5% | 42.0% | +56.7% | $3.42 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 12.0% $8.90 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.54 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Vent Rush 8.0% $4.34 Analog Input 12.0% $4.13 Just Smile 12.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +138.5% | $4.17 +11.9% | 52.0% | +44.7% | $3.73 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Just Smile 10.0% $3.32 Hybrid 10.0% $2.65 Crazy 8 10.0% $2.47 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $2.41 | $4.43 +78.8% | $2.68 +7.9% | 40.0% | +31.0% | $2.48 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Ice Coaled  16.7% $16.45 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Olympus  16.7% $8.52 Kiss♥Love  16.7% $7.21 Visions  16.7% $5.94 | $23.51 +110.1% | $12.75 +14.0% | 50.0% | +55.2% | $11.19 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×9+The Kilowatt Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  5.0% $228.37 Printstream  45.0% $177.28 Chrome Cannon  5.0% $64.35 Chromatic Aberration  45.0% $51.36 | $228.37 +110.8% | $117.52 +8.5% | 50.0% | +60.8% | $108.33 | — |