The Recoil Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Destroyer
1x $1.43
Irezumi
2x $0.34
Motorized
1x $0.35
Dark Sigil
2x $0.36
Slag
1x $0.37
Dezastre
1x $0.61
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
18.0% $13.06
Crazy 8
2.0% $9.52
Just Smile
18.0% $9.31
Flora Carnivora
2.0% $8.94
Block-18
18.0% $8.90
Hybrid
18.0% $7.89
Max Win
$13.06 (+41.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.40 (-8.7%)
Win %
38.0%
Volatility
+31.9%
Cost
$9.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.20
Ask Price EV $8.40 (-8.7%)
Bid Price EV $7.52 (-18.2%)
Ask Profit $-0.80 (-8.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.68 (-18.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.88 (+9.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.80
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.68
Risk
Win Probability 38.0%
Loss Probability 62.0%
Best Case $13.06 (+41.9%)
Worst Case $3.19 (-65.3%)
Volatility +31.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 24.0%
Avg Win +$1.90
Avg Loss -$2.45
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.13 (-55.1%)
Std Dev $2.94
Avg Norm Float 0.0695
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 47h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Factory New
$1.56 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$2.57 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 45S //TOTAL COST $9.20 //ASK PRICE EV $8.40 //BID PRICE EV $7.52 //ASK PROFIT $-0.80 (-8.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.68 (-18.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 38.0% //BEST CASE $13.06 //VOLATILITY +31.9% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$13.06
+$3.86
+41.9%
$12.03
+$2.83
+30.8%
$1.03
7.9%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$9.52
+$0.32
+3.5%
$7.99
-$1.21
-13.2%
$1.53
16.1%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$9.31
+$0.11
+1.2%
$7.84
-$1.36
-14.8%
$1.47
15.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$8.94
-$0.26
-2.8%
$8.07
-$1.13
-12.3%
$0.87
9.7%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$8.90
-$0.30
-3.3%
$7.77
-$1.43
-15.5%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$7.89
-$1.31
-14.2%
$7.43
-$1.77
-19.2%
$0.46
5.8%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$4.54
-$4.66
-50.6%
$4.22
-$4.98
-54.1%
$0.32
7.1%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$4.34
-$4.86
-52.9%
$3.42
-$5.78
-62.8%
$0.92
21.1%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.13
-$5.07
-55.1%
$3.76
-$5.44
-59.1%
$0.37
8.9%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$3.19
-$6.01
-65.3%
$2.88
-$6.32
-68.7%
$0.31
9.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:57.746840Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04668859375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:54.948744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0430045814,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.1265,
"optimistic_value": 4.06,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:23.384975Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 8.94,
"optimistic_value": 8.8,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 8.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:46.194760Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0451685,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.19,
"optimistic_value": 3.19,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T16:38:03.723016Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.04864299999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.335,
"optimistic_value": 4.16,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:22.087020Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 9.5195,
"optimistic_value": 9.46,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 7.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T15:48:41.344498Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.04864299999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.5445,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:31:04.968891Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_9cf4f8f808b60ee129d8705f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "492724538180762805",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:31:11.015107Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "517494441499079446",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:39.629924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:43.162031Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:41.601363Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:36.370297Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:04.424064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:29:04.799490Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:26:02.839695Z"
},
{
"price": 1.56,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "527627322002854856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:55.555197Z"
},
{
"price": 2.57,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "515241791649868741",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:30:53.611833Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-31:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.43 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.32 Hybrid 18.0% $2.65 Crazy 8 2.0% $2.47 Flora Carnivora 2.0% $2.41 | $4.43 +65.4% | $3.17 +18.5% | 54.0% | +27.6% | $2.68 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Etch Lord 18.0% $2.35 Analog Input 18.0% $1.90 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.88 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.82 Downtown 2.0% $1.66 | $4.19 +103.4% | $2.22 +7.5% | 36.0% | +41.6% | $2.06 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.43 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Hybrid 16.0% $2.65 Crazy 8 4.0% $2.47 Flora Carnivora 4.0% $2.41 | $4.43 +70.5% | $3.05 +17.3% | 64.0% | +29.4% | $2.60 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 14.0% $8.90 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.43 Analog Input 14.0% $4.13 Just Smile 14.0% $3.32 Downtown 6.0% $3.19 Hybrid 14.0% $2.65 | $8.90 +160.1% | $3.98 +16.5% | 42.0% | +56.7% | $3.42 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Block-18 12.0% $8.90 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.54 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Vent Rush 8.0% $4.34 Analog Input 12.0% $4.13 Just Smile 12.0% $3.34 | $8.90 +138.5% | $4.17 +11.9% | 52.0% | +44.7% | $3.73 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Just Smile 10.0% $3.32 Hybrid 10.0% $2.65 Crazy 8 10.0% $2.47 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $2.41 | $4.43 +78.8% | $2.68 +7.9% | 40.0% | +31.0% | $2.48 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Ice Coaled  16.7% $16.45 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Olympus  16.7% $8.52 Kiss♥Love  16.7% $7.21 Visions  16.7% $5.94 | $23.51 +110.1% | $12.75 +14.0% | 50.0% | +55.2% | $11.19 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×9+The Kilowatt Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  5.0% $228.37 Printstream  45.0% $177.28 Chrome Cannon  5.0% $64.35 Chromatic Aberration  45.0% $51.36 | $228.37 +110.8% | $117.52 +8.5% | 50.0% | +60.8% | $108.33 | — |