The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Dark Sigil
1x $0.32
Motorized
1x $0.35
Bock Blocks
4x $0.46
Fusion
4x $0.59
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
16.0% $16.94
Firebreathing
16.0% $10.78
Amberline
16.0% $6.42
Galigator
16.0% $5.67
Urban Sovereign
16.0% $4.80
Etch Lord
4.0% $4.45
Max Win
$16.94 (+154.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.80 (+17.1%)
Win %
32.0%
Volatility
+69.5%
Cost
$6.66
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $6.66
Ask Price EV $7.80 (+17.1%)
Bid Price EV $6.60 (-0.9%)
Ask Profit $1.14 (+17.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.06 (-0.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.20 (+18.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.14
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.06
Risk
Win Probability 32.0%
Loss Probability 68.0%
Best Case $16.94 (+154.3%)
Worst Case $1.98 (-70.2%)
Volatility +69.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 36.0%
Avg Win +$7.20
Avg Loss -$1.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.67 (-59.9%)
Std Dev $4.63
Avg Norm Float 0.1487
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 13h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.89 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 59M 26S //TOTAL COST $6.66 //ASK PRICE EV $7.80 //BID PRICE EV $6.60 //ASK PROFIT $1.14 (+17.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.06 (-0.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 32.0% //BEST CASE $16.94 //VOLATILITY +69.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.0%
$16.94
+$10.28
+154.3%
$14.31
+$7.65
+114.9%
$2.63
15.5%
—
BIG WIN
16.0%
$10.78
+$4.12
+61.8%
$9.15
+$2.49
+37.4%
$1.63
15.1%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$6.42
-$0.24
-3.6%
$4.92
-$1.74
-26.1%
$1.50
23.4%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$5.67
-$0.99
-14.9%
$4.89
-$1.77
-26.6%
$0.78
13.7%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$4.80
-$1.86
-27.9%
$4.23
-$2.43
-36.5%
$0.57
11.9%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$4.45
-$2.21
-33.2%
$3.86
-$2.80
-42.0%
$0.59
13.2%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$4.19
-$2.47
-37.1%
$3.88
-$2.78
-41.7%
$0.31
7.4%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$3.32
-$3.34
-50.1%
$2.85
-$3.81
-57.2%
$0.47
14.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.67
-$3.99
-59.9%
$2.60
-$4.06
-61.0%
$0.07
2.7%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.98
-$4.68
-70.2%
$1.85
-$4.81
-72.2%
$0.13
6.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14871,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 10.7765,
"optimistic_value": 10.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.430728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14871,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 5.667,
"optimistic_value": 5.66,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:47.438054Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14871,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 16.936,
"optimistic_value": 16.88,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 14.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.044782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14871,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 6.4205000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 6.41,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:45:11.595867Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14871,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 4.8004999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 4.72,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 4.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:51.345906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14871,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.6725,
"optimistic_value": 2.62,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:08:47.704281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.09991453125000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14871,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.4475,
"optimistic_value": 4.43,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:47.747830Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14871,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.324,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:05:55.890861Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0920306706,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9815,
"optimistic_value": 1.95,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:43:04.613021Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_9b2f70c6a9323489b7bd35cb",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "525375522204066055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:40.578059Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:14.954046Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "506235389470161876",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:15.284305Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "511864723318980237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:09.012928Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "643593816523454425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:15.284305Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "493850490550476172",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:42.692259Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "521997988016516262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:04:26.766369Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "496102290329401619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:42.692259Z"
},
{
"price": 0.89,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "525375635592918547",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:04:26.766369Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "523123722383769418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:04:26.766369Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.85 Etch Lord 4.0% $13.06 | $51.27 +206.5% | $22.56 +34.8% | 48.0% | +78.7% | $16.73 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 16.0% $6.12 Galigator 16.0% $3.56 Amberline 16.0% $2.88 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $2.71 Etch Lord 4.0% $2.28 | $10.69 +174.2% | $4.50 +15.4% | 32.0% | +71.7% | $3.90 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.85 Etch Lord 6.0% $13.06 | $51.27 +229.7% | $20.82 +33.9% | 42.0% | +82.1% | $15.55 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.85 Etch Lord 2.0% $13.06 | $51.27 +179.7% | $24.30 +32.6% | 54.0% | +74.3% | $18.33 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.85 Etch Lord 8.0% $13.06 | $51.27 +254.3% | $19.09 +31.9% | 48.0% | +85.2% | $14.47 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Amberline 10.0% $6.38 Galigator 10.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $4.82 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 | $16.94 +262.7% | $6.12 +31.1% | 50.0% | +81.1% | $4.67 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 8.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 8.0% $10.78 Amberline 8.0% $6.38 Galigator 8.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $4.82 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 | $16.94 +296.6% | $5.56 +30.2% | 52.0% | +83.7% | $4.27 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 6.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 6.0% $10.78 Amberline 6.0% $6.38 Galigator 6.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $4.80 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 | $16.94 +332.0% | $5.00 +27.6% | 58.0% | +83.6% | $3.92 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 4.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 4.0% $10.78 Amberline 4.0% $6.38 Galigator 4.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $4.82 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 | $16.94 +385.3% | $4.45 +27.4% | 52.0% | +81.3% | $3.49 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 2.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 2.0% $10.78 Amberline 2.0% $6.38 Galigator 2.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $4.80 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 | $16.94 +434.3% | $3.89 +22.6% | 64.0% | +67.8% | $3.17 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  26.7% $290.04 Jawbreaker  6.7% $77.01 Black Lotus  6.7% $62.28 Kintsugi  26.7% $61.35 Deathgaze  26.7% $58.69 Olympus  6.7% $29.00 | $290.04 +218.7% | $120.57 +32.5% | 26.7% | +112.8% | $91.00 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Inheritance  5.0% $480.22 Chrome Cannon  5.0% $297.24 | $843.46 +70.0% | $636.64 +28.3% | 45.0% | +38.6% | $496.15 | — |