The Revolution Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Re.built
1x $0.43
Fragments
1x $0.92
Featherweight
1x $1.63
Cyberforce
1x $2.41
Creep
2x $1.43
Aeolian Light
3x $1.92
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
30.0% $14.71
Banana Cannon
8.0% $9.06
Emphorosaur-S
8.0% $5.80
Umbral Rabbit
8.0% $4.30
Neoqueen
8.0% $3.17
Max Win
$26.93 (+51.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.39 (-18.8%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+52.6%
Cost
$17.73
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $17.73
Ask Price EV $14.39 (-18.8%)
Bid Price EV $13.82 (-22.0%)
Ask Profit $-3.34 (-18.8%)
Bid Profit $-3.91 (-22.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.57 (+3.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.34
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.91
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+51.9%)
Worst Case $1.43 (-91.9%)
Volatility +52.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$9.20
Avg Loss -$8.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.43 (-91.9%)
Std Dev $9.33
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 4h 36m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Featherweight
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$2.41 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.11 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 33S //TOTAL COST $17.73 //ASK PRICE EV $14.39 //BID PRICE EV $13.82 //ASK PROFIT $-3.34 (-18.8%) //BID PROFIT $-3.91 (-22.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +52.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$26.93
+$9.20
+51.9%
$26.63
+$8.90
+50.2%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$14.71
-$3.02
-17.0%
$13.15
-$4.58
-25.8%
$1.56
10.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$9.06
-$8.67
-48.9%
$9.05
-$8.68
-49.0%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$5.80
-$11.93
-67.3%
$5.70
-$12.03
-67.9%
$0.10
1.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.30
-$13.43
-75.7%
$4.29
-$13.44
-75.8%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.17
-$14.56
-82.1%
$3.16
-$14.57
-82.2%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.43
-$16.30
-91.9%
$1.42
-$16.31
-92.0%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.7125,
"optimistic_value": 14.66,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:37.229552Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 4.3,
"optimistic_value": 4.3,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 4.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:25.142081Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055984000000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 5.797,
"optimistic_value": 5.79,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 5.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:42.774368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.2505884,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.4335,
"optimistic_value": 1.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:09.681482Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.17,
"optimistic_value": 3.17,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:58.834814Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 9.06,
"optimistic_value": 9.06,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 9.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:20.875974Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_9910d57fdaeaedb2d316dd92",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "497228137695378905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:25.114087Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "508487189340038978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:32.558074Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-2f564d56b7ff",
"listing_id": "517494222851162194",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Featherweight (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Featherweight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f564d56b7ff.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:43.091687Z"
},
{
"price": 2.41,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "653726915737535379",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:24.601999Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.493041Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.493041Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "524249787961161591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:34.821755Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:34.821755Z"
},
{
"price": 2.11,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "510738989040662074",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:34.821755Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:12.484888Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.28 Sakkaku 8.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 8.0% $1.07 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +184.8% | $5.38 +25.0% | 30.0% | +104.8% | $4.30 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.19 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $0.74 Neoqueen 8.0% $0.72 Banana Cannon 8.0% $0.64 | $5.85 +149.0% | $2.69 +14.4% | 30.0% | +88.5% | $2.35 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.71 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $4.30 Neoqueen 8.0% $3.17 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $1.62 Banana Cannon 8.0% $1.61 | $26.93 +127.0% | $13.46 +13.5% | 60.0% | +81.1% | $11.86 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.52 Sakkaku 12.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 12.0% $1.10 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +293.7% | $3.98 +28.1% | 40.0% | +135.0% | $3.11 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.52 Sakkaku 6.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 6.0% $1.10 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +146.9% | $6.18 +24.7% | 35.0% | +90.0% | $4.96 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.28 Sakkaku 10.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 10.0% $1.07 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +227.4% | $4.65 +24.4% | 50.0% | +117.8% | $3.74 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.52 Sakkaku 2.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 2.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 2.0% $1.10 Emphorosaur-S 2.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +94.4% | $7.65 +21.4% | 45.0% | +66.0% | $6.30 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 40.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.18 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $1.01 Umbral Rabbit 4.0% $0.74 Neoqueen 4.0% $0.66 Banana Cannon 4.0% $0.65 | $5.85 +109.7% | $3.36 +20.5% | 40.0% | +72.7% | $2.79 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.29 Sakkaku 14.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 14.0% $1.07 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +355.2% | $3.21 +19.4% | 30.0% | +143.3% | $2.69 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | The End  30.0% $44.73 Duality  23.3% $9.79 Wicked Sick  23.3% $8.89 Wild Child  23.3% $8.35 | $44.73 +135.1% | $19.73 +3.7% | 30.0% | +86.1% | $19.03 | — |