The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Light Box
1x $0.14
Motorized
1x $0.28
Slag
1x $0.29
Hideout
2x $0.30
Dezastre
1x $0.32
Teal Graf
2x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
13.3% $10.49
Sweet Little Angels
13.3% $10.29
Monster Melt
13.3% $8.69
Block-18
12.0% $1.36
Analog Input
12.0% $1.11
Etch Lord
12.0% $0.81
Max Win
$10.49 (+202.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.50 (+29.7%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+126.2%
Cost
$3.47
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.47
Ask Price EV $4.50 (+29.7%)
Bid Price EV $4.39 (+26.6%)
Ask Profit $1.03 (+29.7%)
Bid Profit $0.92 (+26.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.11 (+3.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.03
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.92
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $10.49 (+202.3%)
Worst Case $0.73 (-78.9%)
Volatility +126.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$6.35
Avg Loss -$2.51
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.73 (-78.9%)
Std Dev $4.38
Avg Norm Float 0.1764
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 23m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 43M 30S //TOTAL COST $3.47 //ASK PRICE EV $4.50 //BID PRICE EV $4.39 //ASK PROFIT $1.03 (+29.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.92 (+26.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $10.49 //VOLATILITY +126.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$10.49
+$7.02
+202.3%
$10.47
+$7.00
+201.7%
$0.02
0.2%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Minimal Wear | ƒ 0.1446562
The Overpass 2024 Collection
BIG WIN
13.3%
$10.29
+$6.82
+196.5%
$10.28
+$6.81
+196.3%
$0.01
0.1%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$8.69
+$5.22
+150.4%
$8.24
+$4.77
+137.5%
$0.45
5.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.36
-$2.12
-61.0%
$1.30
-$2.17
-62.5%
$0.05
4.1%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.11
-$2.36
-67.9%
$0.98
-$2.49
-71.8%
$0.13
12.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.81
-$2.66
-76.7%
$0.69
-$2.78
-80.1%
$0.12
14.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.76
-$2.71
-78.0%
$0.71
-$2.76
-79.5%
$0.05
7.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.73
-$2.74
-78.9%
$0.71
-$2.76
-79.5%
$0.02
3.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1499485,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 10.49,
"optimistic_value": 10.49,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 10.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.386055Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1446562,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 10.29,
"optimistic_value": 10.29,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 10.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:06.243191Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.13230750000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 8.687999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 8.52,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 8.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:40.327928Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.17641,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.7334999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:54:21.148874Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.11852546875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 1.355,
"optimistic_value": 1.32,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:48:19.739066Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.17641,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.81,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:01:04.104128Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.17641,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.7635,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:38:27.916348Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.10917309260000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.1135000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.11,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:53.228428Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_97570d789ac7cd8ab9413b2c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "490472738292849795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:01:08.596380Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "496102237884868559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:25.419048Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "525375635593286071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:57.986998Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "503983589619871867",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:01:10.085155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "509613089303862039",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:01:10.085155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "652601015910276048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:51:18.914143Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "503983589619426907",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:41:05.877599Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "491598638254867202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:41:05.877599Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "517494388633440706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:01:06.794251Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "509613089303435079",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:01:06.794251Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:6+collection-set-overpass-2024:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.69 Etch Lord 12.0% $1.72 Just Smile 12.0% $1.62 Hybrid 12.0% $1.54 | $10.49 +147.4% | $4.81 +13.5% | 40.0% | +88.1% | $4.24 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.69 Block-18 10.0% $1.37 Analog Input 10.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.79 | $10.49 +153.4% | $5.39 +30.2% | 50.0% | +95.7% | $4.14 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.69 Block-18 8.0% $1.37 Analog Input 8.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.79 | $10.49 +116.3% | $6.28 +29.4% | 60.0% | +78.3% | $4.85 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.69 Block-18 6.0% $1.37 Analog Input 6.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.79 | $10.49 +86.0% | $7.16 +27.0% | 70.0% | +61.6% | $5.64 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.69 Block-18 14.0% $1.37 Analog Input 14.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.79 | $10.49 +260.5% | $3.62 +24.4% | 30.0% | +130.6% | $2.91 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 6.7% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 6.7% $8.69 Block-18 16.0% $1.37 Analog Input 16.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.79 | $10.49 +333.5% | $2.73 +12.9% | 20.0% | +140.2% | $2.42 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crakow!  10.0% $103.76 Dragon Snore  10.0% $77.69 Black Lotus  26.7% $12.65 Jawbreaker  26.7% $10.79 Olympus  26.7% $7.59 | $103.76 +364.4% | $26.42 +18.3% | 20.0% | +146.5% | $22.34 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  50.0% $1,312.69 Inheritance  25.0% $222.60 Chrome Cannon  25.0% $60.71 | $1,312.69 +121.4% | $727.17 +22.6% | 50.0% | +99.2% | $592.92 | — |