The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.36
Light Box
2x $0.50
Slag
2x $2.08
Dezastre
1x $2.43
Metallic Squeezer
2x $1.03
Wurst Hölle
2x $1.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
13.3% $27.45
Sweet Little Angels
13.3% $25.66
Monster Melt
13.3% $20.38
Etch Lord
12.0% $10.86
Just Smile
12.0% $9.45
Hybrid
12.0% $8.10
Max Win
$27.45 (+80.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.07 (-7.6%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+59.3%
Cost
$15.23
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.23
Ask Price EV $14.07 (-7.6%)
Bid Price EV $13.84 (-9.1%)
Ask Profit $-1.16 (-7.6%)
Bid Profit $-1.39 (-9.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.22 (+1.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.16
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.39
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $27.45 (+80.3%)
Worst Case $2.99 (-80.4%)
Volatility +59.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$9.27
Avg Loss -$8.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.99 (-80.4%)
Std Dev $9.04
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 12m
Oldest Output Price 72h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.43 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Minimal Wear
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 43M 54S //TOTAL COST $15.23 //ASK PRICE EV $14.07 //BID PRICE EV $13.84 //ASK PROFIT $-1.16 (-7.6%) //BID PROFIT $-1.39 (-9.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $27.45 //VOLATILITY +59.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$27.45
+$12.22
+80.3%
$26.60
+$11.37
+74.7%
$0.85
3.1%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.057318
The Overpass 2024 Collection
BIG WIN
13.3%
$25.66
+$10.43
+68.5%
$25.62
+$10.39
+68.2%
$0.04
0.2%
—
WIN
13.3%
$20.38
+$5.15
+33.8%
$19.85
+$4.62
+30.3%
$0.53
2.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$10.86
-$4.37
-28.7%
$10.67
-$4.56
-29.9%
$0.19
1.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.45
-$5.78
-37.9%
$9.40
-$5.83
-38.3%
$0.05
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$8.10
-$7.13
-46.8%
$8.09
-$7.14
-46.9%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$4.18
-$11.05
-72.6%
$4.17
-$11.06
-72.6%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.99
-$12.24
-80.4%
$2.96
-$12.27
-80.6%
$0.03
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.059415,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 27.4545,
"optimistic_value": 27.43,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:57.146340Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.057318,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.052425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.381,
"optimistic_value": 20.36,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:27.221596Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 8.1,
"optimistic_value": 8.1,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 8.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:43.201841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0469640625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.18,
"optimistic_value": 4.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:07.071680Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 10.857,
"optimistic_value": 10.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 10.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:19:39.771565Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4505,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 9.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:56.687555Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.043258314,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:45.090186Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_97570d789ac7cd8ab9413b2c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "493850490549237988",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:55:25.514540Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "510738989040367846",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:07:25.117420Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "494976224708092746",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:07:25.117420Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506234592363307536",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:27.188315Z"
},
{
"price": 2.43,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "633460645527307573",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:44.260558Z"
},
{
"price": 2.83,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506234592360092376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:27.188315Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "596305411430770513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:45.369021Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:57:26.567550Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "625579418033580202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:57:26.567550Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "523123888072619974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:59.425876Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:6+collection-set-overpass-2024:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.69 Block-18 12.0% $1.33 Analog Input 12.0% $1.10 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.79 | $10.49 +193.0% | $4.50 +25.7% | 40.0% | +111.2% | $3.58 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.69 Etch Lord 12.0% $1.72 Just Smile 12.0% $1.61 Hybrid 12.0% $1.53 | $10.49 +140.0% | $4.80 +10.0% | 40.0% | +85.6% | $4.37 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.65 Block-18 8.0% $1.31 Analog Input 8.0% $1.08 Just Smile 8.0% $0.78 | $10.47 +111.5% | $6.26 +26.4% | 60.0% | +76.8% | $4.95 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.65 Block-18 10.0% $1.31 Analog Input 10.0% $1.08 Just Smile 10.0% $0.78 | $10.47 +146.4% | $5.37 +26.3% | 50.0% | +93.4% | $4.25 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.65 Block-18 6.0% $1.31 Analog Input 6.0% $1.08 Just Smile 6.0% $0.78 | $10.47 +82.7% | $7.14 +24.6% | 70.0% | +60.7% | $5.73 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.65 Block-18 14.0% $1.31 Analog Input 14.0% $1.08 Just Smile 14.0% $0.78 | $10.47 +256.1% | $3.59 +22.2% | 30.0% | +129.5% | $2.94 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 6.7% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 6.7% $8.65 Block-18 16.0% $1.31 Analog Input 16.0% $1.08 Just Smile 16.0% $0.78 | $10.47 +330.9% | $2.71 +11.3% | 20.0% | +139.8% | $2.43 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crakow!  15.0% $103.76 Dragon Snore  15.0% $77.71 Black Lotus  23.3% $12.65 Jawbreaker  23.3% $10.69 Olympus  23.3% $7.59 | $103.76 +256.7% | $34.43 +18.4% | 30.0% | +129.2% | $29.09 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  50.0% $1,312.69 Inheritance  25.0% $222.60 Chrome Cannon  25.0% $60.71 | $1,312.69 +121.4% | $727.17 +22.6% | 50.0% | +99.2% | $592.92 | — |