The Recoil Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Roadblock
2x $0.16
Destroyer
2x $0.28
Winterized
3x $0.28
Meow 36
1x $0.47
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.42
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
10.0% $18.08
Royal Guard
10.0% $5.44
Flora Carnivora
16.0% $1.75
Crazy 8
16.0% $1.66
Dragon Tech
16.0% $1.21
Vent Rush
16.0% $1.21
Max Win
$18.08 (+427.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.45 (+0.7%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+146.6%
Cost
$3.43
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.43
Ask Price EV $3.45 (+0.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.07 (-10.6%)
Ask Profit $0.02 (+0.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.36 (-10.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.39 (+11.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.02
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.36
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+427.0%)
Worst Case $1.06 (-69.0%)
Volatility +146.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$8.33
Avg Loss -$2.05
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.06 (-69.0%)
Std Dev $5.03
Avg Norm Float 0.1499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 149h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Meow 36
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 00M 14S //TOTAL COST $3.43 //ASK PRICE EV $3.45 //BID PRICE EV $3.07 //ASK PROFIT $0.02 (+0.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.36 (-10.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +146.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$18.08
+$14.65
+427.0%
$15.21
+$11.78
+343.4%
$2.87
15.9%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$5.44
+$2.01
+58.5%
$5.11
+$1.68
+49.0%
$0.32
6.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$1.75
-$1.68
-49.0%
$1.61
-$1.82
-53.1%
$0.14
8.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$1.66
-$1.77
-51.6%
$1.63
-$1.80
-52.5%
$0.03
1.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.21
-$2.22
-64.6%
$1.12
-$2.31
-67.3%
$0.09
7.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.21
-$2.22
-64.7%
$1.08
-$2.35
-68.5%
$0.13
10.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.06
-$2.37
-69.0%
$1.03
-$2.40
-70.0%
$0.03
3.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 1.75,
"optimistic_value": 1.75,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:20.281655Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.09745450000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 1.0635000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.06,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:44.177395Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.104951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.2105,
"optimistic_value": 1.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:38.122805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 1.66,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:38.921374Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.104951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.213,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:42.516846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1124475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.089958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.435,
"optimistic_value": 5.33,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:23.634650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_96497ff000676eeda3c1a101",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "518620122759304192",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:16.018010Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "508486392187241150",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:10:17.210484Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "499479989895563665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:10:01.991110Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "526501587736163141",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:10:01.991110Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "527627487624965768",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:10:17.210484Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "501731842661143013",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:10:01.991110Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "525375522203724595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:02:23.828674Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-14669f15615e",
"listing_id": "651475115893292082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Meow 36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-14669f15615e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:13.150485Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "496102290329888807",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:34.591100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "500605942755288971",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:34.591100Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:8+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.44 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.21 Downtown 16.0% $1.06 Crazy 8 16.0% $0.81 | $18.08 +662.7% | $3.16 +33.2% | 20.0% | +213.4% | $2.37 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.35 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.29 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.21 Downtown 6.0% $1.07 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.79 | $18.08 +168.2% | $8.50 +26.2% | 35.0% | +103.6% | $6.74 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.35 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.17 Downtown 2.0% $1.06 Crazy 8 2.0% $0.81 | $18.08 +104.0% | $10.64 +20.1% | 45.0% | +75.6% | $8.86 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.14 Vent Rush 4.0% $0.70 Crazy 8 4.0% $0.69 Downtown 4.0% $0.64 Dragon Tech 4.0% $0.64 | $6.94 +147.1% | $3.36 +19.7% | 40.0% | +102.3% | $2.81 | — |