The Recoil Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Destroyer
2x $0.14
Poly Mag
2x $0.14
Winterized
4x $0.18
Mint Fan
1x $0.37
Cobalt Paisley
1x $0.42
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
10.0% $18.08
Royal Guard
10.0% $5.44
Vent Rush
16.0% $1.30
Dragon Tech
16.0% $1.21
Downtown
16.0% $1.07
Crazy 8
16.0% $0.79
Max Win
$18.08 (+640.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.17 (+29.9%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+210.8%
Cost
$2.44
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.44
Ask Price EV $3.17 (+29.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.79 (+14.1%)
Ask Profit $0.73 (+29.9%)
Bid Profit $0.35 (+14.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.38 (+15.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.73
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.35
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+640.8%)
Worst Case $0.74 (-69.8%)
Volatility +210.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$9.32
Avg Loss -$1.42
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.74 (-69.8%)
Std Dev $5.14
Avg Norm Float 0.1996
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 148h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 00M 48S //TOTAL COST $2.44 //ASK PRICE EV $3.17 //BID PRICE EV $2.79 //ASK PROFIT $0.73 (+29.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.35 (+14.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +210.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$18.08
+$15.64
+640.8%
$15.21
+$12.77
+523.4%
$2.87
15.9%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$5.44
+$2.99
+122.7%
$5.25
+$2.81
+115.2%
$0.18
3.4%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.30
-$1.14
-46.6%
$1.08
-$1.36
-55.7%
$0.22
17.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.21
-$1.23
-50.3%
$1.12
-$1.32
-54.1%
$0.09
7.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.07
-$1.37
-56.1%
$1.03
-$1.41
-57.8%
$0.04
3.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.79
-$1.65
-67.7%
$0.70
-$1.74
-71.3%
$0.09
11.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.74
-$1.70
-69.8%
$0.69
-$1.75
-71.7%
$0.05
6.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.19964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.7375,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:23.513038Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.12976600000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 1.07,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:42.493041Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.139748,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.3035,
"optimistic_value": 1.3,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:07.354472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.19964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.787,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:53:16.348832Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.139748,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.213,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:42.516846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.119784,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.435,
"optimistic_value": 5.33,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:34.002123Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_96497ff000676eeda3c1a101",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "524249735518461147",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:01:07.485530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "509613089305491471",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:42.161337Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "492724538183414529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:42.161337Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "510738823411159930",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:33.825922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "497227393156968617",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:33.825922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "508486392187241150",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:52.368749Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "499479989895563665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:54.913367Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "526501587736163141",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:54.913367Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "519746188259551760",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:50.856676Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "496102290329888807",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:56.884623Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:8+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.44 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.21 Downtown 6.0% $1.06 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.81 | $18.08 +180.3% | $8.53 +32.3% | 35.0% | +108.1% | $6.45 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.44 Vent Rush 4.0% $1.29 Dragon Tech 4.0% $1.21 Downtown 4.0% $1.07 Crazy 8 4.0% $0.79 | $18.08 +136.9% | $9.61 +25.9% | 40.0% | +90.1% | $7.63 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.44 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.25 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.21 Downtown 2.0% $1.08 Crazy 8 2.0% $0.77 | $18.08 +110.2% | $10.68 +24.2% | 45.0% | +77.5% | $8.60 | — |