The Recoil Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Winterized
2x $0.30
Roadblock
1x $0.39
Meow 36
1x $0.47
Destroyer
4x $1.67
Royal Baroque
1x $1.57
Reef Grief
1x $2.20
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
10.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
10.0% $13.37
Crazy 8
16.0% $10.92
Flora Carnivora
16.0% $10.45
Dragon Tech
16.0% $4.38
Vent Rush
16.0% $4.20
Max Win
$38.92 (+197.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.59 (-19.1%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+77.1%
Cost
$13.08
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.08
Ask Price EV $10.59 (-19.1%)
Bid Price EV $10.09 (-22.9%)
Ask Profit $-2.49 (-19.1%)
Bid Profit $-2.99 (-22.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.50 (+3.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.49
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.99
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+197.6%)
Worst Case $3.53 (-73.0%)
Volatility +77.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$13.07
Avg Loss -$6.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.53 (-73.0%)
Std Dev $10.09
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 102h 41m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Meow 36
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 41S //TOTAL COST $13.08 //ASK PRICE EV $10.59 //BID PRICE EV $10.09 //ASK PROFIT $-2.49 (-19.1%) //BID PROFIT $-2.99 (-22.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +77.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$38.92
+$25.84
+197.6%
$34.38
+$21.30
+162.8%
$4.54
11.7%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$13.37
+$0.29
+2.2%
$13.24
+$0.16
+1.2%
$0.13
1.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.92
-$2.16
-16.5%
$10.89
-$2.19
-16.7%
$0.03
0.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.45
-$2.63
-20.1%
$10.30
-$2.78
-21.3%
$0.15
1.4%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.38
-$8.70
-66.5%
$4.37
-$8.71
-66.6%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.20
-$8.88
-67.9%
$4.19
-$8.89
-68.0%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.53
-$9.55
-73.0%
$3.52
-$9.56
-73.1%
$0.01
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 10.4505,
"optimistic_value": 10.37,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 10.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:25.879565Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.045448,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.53,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 3.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:40.853195Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.048943999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.2,
"optimistic_value": 4.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 4.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:04.954294Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 10.9175,
"optimistic_value": 10.9,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 10.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:37:32.908707Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.048943999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.38,
"optimistic_value": 4.38,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:10.219415Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.05244,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041951999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.372,
"optimistic_value": 13.26,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:59.018151Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_96497ff000676eeda3c1a101",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "501731842661143013",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:10:01.991110Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "525375522203724595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:02:23.828674Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-14669f15615e",
"listing_id": "651475115893292082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Meow 36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-14669f15615e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:13.150485Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "518620288313023888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:10:01.991110Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "529879340431845840",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:26.269118Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "630083017705289418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:26.269118Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "596305411434979669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:26.269118Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "635712445338920863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:26.269118Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:43.321719Z"
},
{
"price": 2.2,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "507361342333730473",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:57.814350Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:8+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.44 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.21 Downtown 16.0% $1.06 Crazy 8 16.0% $0.81 | $18.08 +662.7% | $3.16 +33.2% | 20.0% | +213.4% | $2.37 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.44 Flora Carnivora 16.0% $1.75 Crazy 8 16.0% $1.66 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.21 | $18.08 +427.0% | $3.45 +0.7% | 20.0% | +143.9% | $3.43 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.35 Dragon Tech 4.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 4.0% $1.21 Downtown 4.0% $1.06 Crazy 8 4.0% $0.81 | $18.08 +141.0% | $9.57 +27.6% | 40.0% | +92.0% | $7.50 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.35 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.29 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.21 Downtown 6.0% $1.07 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.79 | $18.08 +168.2% | $8.50 +26.2% | 35.0% | +103.6% | $6.74 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.35 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.17 Downtown 2.0% $1.06 Crazy 8 2.0% $0.81 | $18.08 +104.0% | $10.64 +20.1% | 45.0% | +75.6% | $8.86 | — |