The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Ultralight
3x $0.29
Gnarled
1x $0.35
Fragment
1x $0.46
Fusion
2x $0.47
Bock Blocks
3x $0.63
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
12.0% $16.94
Firebreathing
12.0% $10.78
Amberline
12.0% $6.38
Galigator
12.0% $5.68
Urban Sovereign
12.0% $4.81
Monster Call
8.0% $2.47
Max Win
$16.94 (+224.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.25 (+19.7%)
Win %
48.0%
Volatility
+91.6%
Cost
$5.22
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.22
Ask Price EV $6.25 (+19.7%)
Bid Price EV $5.28 (+1.2%)
Ask Profit $1.03 (+19.7%)
Bid Profit $0.06 (+1.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.97 (+18.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.03
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.06
Risk
Win Probability 48.0%
Loss Probability 52.0%
Best Case $16.94 (+224.4%)
Worst Case $2.00 (-61.7%)
Volatility +91.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.72
Avg Loss -$2.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.00 (-61.7%)
Std Dev $4.78
Avg Norm Float 0.1496
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 67h 8m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 32S //TOTAL COST $5.22 //ASK PRICE EV $6.25 //BID PRICE EV $5.28 //ASK PROFIT $1.03 (+19.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.06 (+1.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 48.0% //BEST CASE $16.94 //VOLATILITY +91.6% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$16.94
+$11.72
+224.4%
$14.31
+$9.09
+174.1%
$2.63
15.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$10.78
+$5.56
+106.4%
$9.15
+$3.93
+75.3%
$1.63
15.1%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$6.38
+$1.16
+22.3%
$4.92
-$0.30
-5.7%
$1.46
22.9%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$5.68
+$0.46
+8.8%
$4.89
-$0.33
-6.3%
$0.79
13.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$4.81
-$0.41
-7.9%
$4.43
-$0.79
-15.1%
$0.38
7.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$2.47
-$2.75
-52.6%
$2.11
-$3.11
-59.6%
$0.36
14.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$2.28
-$2.94
-56.3%
$1.84
-$3.38
-64.8%
$0.44
19.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$2.26
-$2.96
-56.6%
$1.97
-$3.25
-62.3%
$0.29
12.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.23
-$2.99
-57.3%
$1.95
-$3.27
-62.6%
$0.28
12.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.00
-$3.22
-61.7%
$1.62
-$3.60
-69.0%
$0.38
19.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14959,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 10.7765,
"optimistic_value": 10.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.430728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14959,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 5.68,
"optimistic_value": 5.68,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:55.298809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14959,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 16.936,
"optimistic_value": 16.88,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 14.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.044782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14959,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 6.384,
"optimistic_value": 6.37,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:24.819638Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14959,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 4.8075,
"optimistic_value": 4.72,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:59.600006Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.119672,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 2.2305,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:58:17.794467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14959,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:11:49.798269Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14959,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 2.4739999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.46,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 2.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:10:03.152892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.119672,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:19.977350Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14959,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 2.263,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:35:16.266110Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_95ea4a31993e5e6b8ef6ac62",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "516368436280361834",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:18:16.989134Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "525375522204061051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:18:16.989134Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "496101493276064591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:18:16.989134Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "496102290328331375",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:47.646966Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "496102290329539715",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:26.965345Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "492724590626752209",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:57:35.322131Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "511864723318980237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:57:35.322131Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "643593816523454425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:27.544656Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "520872088106561496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:51.070447Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "492724590626343393",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:51.070447Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-community-37:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.92 Brother 8.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +248.1% | $18.84 +27.9% | 36.0% | +84.5% | $14.73 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 12.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 12.0% $6.12 Galigator 12.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $3.23 Amberline 12.0% $3.22 Monster Call 8.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +226.0% | $3.59 +9.6% | 24.0% | +82.7% | $3.28 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 6.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 6.0% $31.66 Amberline 6.0% $18.87 Galigator 6.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $13.92 Brother 14.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +409.7% | $13.43 +33.5% | 44.0% | +103.3% | $10.06 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.92 Brother 10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +298.7% | $17.04 +32.5% | 50.0% | +93.1% | $12.86 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 8.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 8.0% $31.66 Amberline 8.0% $18.87 Galigator 8.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $13.92 Brother 12.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +345.5% | $15.24 +32.4% | 52.0% | +98.3% | $11.51 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 4.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 4.0% $31.66 Amberline 4.0% $18.87 Galigator 4.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $13.92 Brother 16.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +464.7% | $11.63 +28.1% | 36.0% | +99.4% | $9.08 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.92 Brother 6.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +210.2% | $20.64 +24.9% | 42.0% | +77.7% | $16.53 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.92 Brother 4.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +178.4% | $22.44 +21.8% | 48.0% | +71.8% | $18.42 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.92 Brother 2.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +128.5% | $24.24 +8.0% | 36.0% | +60.8% | $22.44 | — |