The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Ultralight
3x $0.14
Runic
1x $0.15
RMX
1x $0.35
Fusion
2x $0.41
Bock Blocks
3x $0.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
12.0% $10.69
Firebreathing
12.0% $6.12
Galigator
12.0% $3.26
Urban Sovereign
12.0% $3.24
Amberline
12.0% $3.22
Monster Call
8.0% $1.11
Max Win
$10.69 (+201.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.60 (+1.3%)
Win %
24.0%
Volatility
+86.8%
Cost
$3.55
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.55
Ask Price EV $3.60 (+1.3%)
Bid Price EV $3.02 (-15.0%)
Ask Profit $0.05 (+1.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.53 (-15.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.58 (+16.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.05
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.53
Risk
Win Probability 24.0%
Loss Probability 76.0%
Best Case $10.69 (+201.2%)
Worst Case $0.99 (-72.1%)
Volatility +86.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.86
Avg Loss -$1.47
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.99 (-72.1%)
Std Dev $3.08
Avg Norm Float 0.3537
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 129h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 10S //TOTAL COST $3.55 //ASK PRICE EV $3.60 //BID PRICE EV $3.02 //ASK PROFIT $0.05 (+1.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.53 (-15.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 24.0% //BEST CASE $10.69 //VOLATILITY +86.8% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.0%
$10.69
+$7.14
+201.2%
$9.15
+$5.60
+157.7%
$1.54
14.4%
—
BIG WIN
12.0%
$6.12
+$2.57
+72.3%
$4.98
+$1.43
+40.3%
$1.14
18.6%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$3.26
-$0.29
-8.1%
$2.91
-$0.64
-18.0%
$0.35
10.8%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$3.24
-$0.31
-8.7%
$2.57
-$0.98
-27.6%
$0.67
20.7%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$3.22
-$0.33
-9.3%
$2.61
-$0.94
-26.5%
$0.61
18.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.11
-$2.44
-68.8%
$0.95
-$2.60
-73.2%
$0.16
14.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.03
-$2.52
-70.9%
$0.87
-$2.68
-75.5%
$0.16
15.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.02
-$2.53
-71.3%
$0.89
-$2.66
-74.9%
$0.13
12.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.00
-$2.55
-71.7%
$0.82
-$2.73
-76.9%
$0.18
18.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.99
-$2.56
-72.1%
$0.88
-$2.67
-75.2%
$0.11
11.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.35373,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 6.117,
"optimistic_value": 6.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 4.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.545500Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.35373,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.2635,
"optimistic_value": 3.19,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 2.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:45.477369Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.35373,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 10.693000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:48.376233Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.35373,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.2185,
"optimistic_value": 3.18,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 2.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:33:45.428121Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.35373,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.2424999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 3.19,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 2.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:27.092707Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.282984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 1.0335,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:43.695546Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.35373,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.99,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:36.090385Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.35373,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 1.107,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T18:26:14.119971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.282984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 1.004,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:41.067589Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.35373,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 1.0205,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T03:21:05.901970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_95ea4a31993e5e6b8ef6ac62",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "509613089304432999",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Ultralight (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:17.970702Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "640216116822923783",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Ultralight (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:17.970702Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "514116688949796378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Runic (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:33.564830Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "509613036859937991",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:00.574082Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "515242588554958309",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:08:04.329253Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "525375688037123755",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:07.566102Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "508487189339291906",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:00.640696Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "509613036859925607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:00.640696Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "511864723318980237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:07.566102Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "643593816523454425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:00.640696Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-community-37:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.92 Brother 8.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +254.6% | $18.84 +30.3% | 48.0% | +86.1% | $14.46 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 12.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 12.0% $10.78 Amberline 12.0% $6.48 Galigator 12.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $4.73 Monster Call 8.0% $2.47 | $16.94 +225.1% | $6.25 +19.9% | 48.0% | +80.6% | $5.21 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.92 Brother 10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +293.2% | $17.04 +30.7% | 50.0% | +91.8% | $13.04 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 6.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 6.0% $31.66 Amberline 6.0% $18.87 Galigator 6.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $13.92 Brother 14.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +396.4% | $13.43 +30.0% | 44.0% | +100.6% | $10.33 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 8.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 8.0% $31.66 Amberline 8.0% $18.87 Galigator 8.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $13.92 Brother 12.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +336.4% | $15.24 +29.7% | 52.0% | +96.3% | $11.75 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.92 Brother 6.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +221.3% | $20.64 +29.3% | 42.0% | +80.5% | $15.96 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.92 Brother 4.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +187.1% | $22.44 +25.7% | 48.0% | +74.0% | $17.86 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 4.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 4.0% $31.66 Amberline 4.0% $18.87 Galigator 4.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $13.92 Brother 16.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +437.5% | $11.63 +21.9% | 36.0% | +94.7% | $9.54 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.92 Brother 2.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +124.3% | $24.24 +6.1% | 36.0% | +59.6% | $22.86 | — |