The Snakebite Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
O.S.I.P.R.
1x $1.07
Slag
2x $0.38
Dezastre
4x $0.48
Light Box
1x $0.76
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
Hideout
1x $1.51
↓
Possible Outputs
Slate
2.0% $76.80
Trigger Discipline
2.0% $18.66
Etch Lord
18.0% $13.06
Just Smile
18.0% $9.49
Block-18
18.0% $8.90
Button Masher
2.0% $8.79
Max Win
$76.80 (+642.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.14 (-2.1%)
Win %
22.0%
Volatility
+96.9%
Cost
$10.35
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.35
Ask Price EV $10.14 (-2.1%)
Bid Price EV $8.98 (-13.2%)
Ask Profit $-0.21 (-2.1%)
Bid Profit $-1.37 (-13.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.15 (+11.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.37
Risk
Win Probability 22.0%
Loss Probability 78.0%
Best Case $76.80 (+642.0%)
Worst Case $3.91 (-62.2%)
Volatility +96.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 22.0%
Avg Win +$9.01
Avg Loss -$2.81
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.91 (-62.2%)
Std Dev $10.03
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 145h
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | O.S.I.P.R.
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 43M 26S //TOTAL COST $10.35 //ASK PRICE EV $10.14 //BID PRICE EV $8.98 //ASK PROFIT $-0.21 (-2.1%) //BID PROFIT $-1.37 (-13.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 22.0% //BEST CASE $76.80 //VOLATILITY +96.9% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$76.80
+$66.45
+642.0%
$65.94
+$55.59
+537.1%
$10.86
14.1%
—
BIG WIN
2.0%
$18.66
+$8.31
+80.3%
$17.32
+$6.97
+67.3%
$1.34
7.2%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$13.06
+$2.71
+26.2%
$12.03
+$1.68
+16.2%
$1.03
7.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$9.49
-$0.86
-8.3%
$7.84
-$2.51
-24.3%
$1.65
17.4%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$8.90
-$1.45
-14.0%
$7.77
-$2.58
-24.9%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$8.79
-$1.56
-15.1%
$6.21
-$4.14
-40.0%
$2.58
29.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$7.89
-$2.46
-23.8%
$7.43
-$2.92
-28.2%
$0.46
5.8%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$7.52
-$2.83
-27.3%
$6.13
-$4.22
-40.8%
$1.39
18.5%
—
NUKE THIN BID
2.0%
$5.88
-$4.47
-43.2%
$4.30
-$6.05
-58.5%
$1.58
26.9%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$3.91
-$6.44
-62.2%
$3.74
-$6.61
-63.9%
$0.17
4.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-28|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:25.464728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04689015625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4875,
"optimistic_value": 9.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:29.021487Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.043190239400000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 3.9145,
"optimistic_value": 3.75,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:48.649788Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48e1c7c5df5e",
"realistic_value": 76.8015,
"optimistic_value": 75.09,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Slate",
"conservative_value": 65.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:00.524990Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48e1c7c5df5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0676963,
"output_skin_id": "skin-337794166cad",
"realistic_value": 18.659,
"optimistic_value": 17.56,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:08.466614Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-337794166cad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5acd24fcb47",
"realistic_value": 8.7865,
"optimistic_value": 8.44,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Button Masher",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T15:58:16.184935Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5acd24fcb47.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.04536350000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bce9af58ff21",
"realistic_value": 5.8805000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.87,
"output_full_name": "Negev | dev_texture",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Negev | dev_texture (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:21.519049Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bce9af58ff21.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0593215,
"output_skin_id": "skin-24c6ed776121",
"realistic_value": 7.521,
"optimistic_value": 7.5,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Cyber Shell",
"conservative_value": 6.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Snakebite Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:16.193802Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-24c6ed776121.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_9250a7cd2e41c80d79bfd63f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-c6f056b9dbbc",
"listing_id": "639090217016785833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-28",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | O.S.I.P.R.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c6f056b9dbbc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:25.166684Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "508486392212133206",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:13.182530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "636838417157749708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:59.966069Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "493850324808131632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:13.182530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:59.966069Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:08:55.582322Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:39.556171Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:08:50.628762Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "508487136897223046",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:14.176893Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "528753335311947405",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:14.176893Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-28:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Snakebite Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Slate 2.0% $35.89 Trigger Discipline 2.0% $7.72 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.32 Hybrid 18.0% $2.63 | $35.89 +1011.0% | $4.00 +23.7% | 58.0% | +142.1% | $3.23 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Slate 2.0% $22.82 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Trigger Discipline 2.0% $3.29 Etch Lord 18.0% $2.28 Analog Input 18.0% $2.02 dev_texture 2.0% $1.88 | $22.82 +851.0% | $2.67 +11.5% | 22.0% | +122.6% | $2.40 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Snakebite Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Slate 6.0% $35.89 Trigger Discipline 6.0% $7.72 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Just Smile 14.0% $3.32 Hybrid 14.0% $2.63 | $35.89 +723.1% | $5.35 +22.6% | 26.0% | +175.0% | $4.36 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Slate 4.0% $35.89 Trigger Discipline 4.0% $7.72 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.32 Hybrid 16.0% $2.63 | $35.89 +839.4% | $4.66 +22.1% | 40.0% | +166.3% | $3.82 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Slate 8.0% $35.89 Trigger Discipline 8.0% $7.72 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Just Smile 12.0% $3.32 Hybrid 12.0% $2.63 | $35.89 +613.4% | $6.02 +19.7% | 16.0% | +171.6% | $5.03 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Slate 10.0% $35.89 Trigger Discipline 10.0% $7.72 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Just Smile 10.0% $3.32 Hybrid 10.0% $2.63 | $35.89 +531.8% | $6.70 +17.9% | 20.0% | +166.3% | $5.68 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Slate 12.0% $35.89 Trigger Discipline 12.0% $7.72 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.45 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Just Smile 8.0% $3.32 Hybrid 8.0% $2.63 | $35.89 +464.3% | $7.37 +15.9% | 24.0% | +158.9% | $6.36 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Slate 14.0% $35.89 Trigger Discipline 14.0% $7.72 Etch Lord 6.0% $4.45 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Just Smile 6.0% $3.32 Hybrid 6.0% $2.63 | $35.89 +407.6% | $8.05 +13.8% | 28.0% | +150.5% | $7.07 | — |
The Snakebite Collection ×8+The Kilowatt Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Slate 16.0% $35.89 Trigger Discipline 16.0% $7.72 Etch Lord 4.0% $4.45 Block-18 4.0% $4.19 Just Smile 4.0% $3.32 Hybrid 4.0% $2.63 | $35.89 +360.1% | $8.72 +11.8% | 16.0% | +141.9% | $7.80 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Snakebite Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  23.3% $23.51 Jawbreaker  23.3% $14.90 Chromatic Aberration  10.0% $10.21 Food Chain  10.0% $9.95 Olympus  23.3% $8.82 XOXO  10.0% $6.20 | $23.51 +97.9% | $13.66 +15.0% | 46.7% | +50.9% | $11.88 | — |