The Recoil Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Destroyer
1x $0.13
Poly Mag
1x $0.13
Shredded
2x $0.26
Red Tide
2x $0.27
Rose Hex
3x $0.32
Blush Pour
1x $0.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
26.7% $5.01
Glitched Paint
26.7% $2.96
Bleeding Edge
26.7% $2.09
Crazy 8
4.0% $0.71
Vent Rush
4.0% $0.70
Flora Carnivora
4.0% $0.69
Max Win
$5.01 (+52.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.82 (-14.1%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+46.6%
Cost
$3.28
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.28
Ask Price EV $2.82 (-14.1%)
Bid Price EV $2.61 (-20.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.46 (-14.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.67 (-20.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+6.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.46
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.67
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $5.01 (+52.6%)
Worst Case $0.65 (-80.2%)
Volatility +46.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 46.7%
Avg Win +$1.73
Avg Loss -$1.26
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.67 (-79.6%)
Std Dev $1.53
Avg Norm Float 0.4123
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 144h 31m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 50S //TOTAL COST $3.28 //ASK PRICE EV $2.82 //BID PRICE EV $2.61 //ASK PROFIT $-0.46 (-14.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.67 (-20.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +46.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
26.7%
$5.01
+$1.73
+52.6%
$4.66
+$1.38
+42.1%
$0.35
6.9%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$2.96
-$0.32
-9.9%
$2.76
-$0.52
-15.9%
$0.20
6.6%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$2.09
-$1.19
-36.4%
$1.91
-$1.37
-41.8%
$0.18
8.5%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.71
-$2.57
-78.2%
$0.57
-$2.71
-82.6%
$0.14
20.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.70
-$2.58
-78.6%
$0.61
-$2.67
-81.4%
$0.09
13.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.69
-$2.59
-79.0%
$0.66
-$2.62
-79.9%
$0.03
4.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.67
-$2.61
-79.6%
$0.62
-$2.66
-81.1%
$0.05
7.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.65
-$2.63
-80.2%
$0.61
-$2.67
-81.4%
$0.04
6.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.3092175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.2762343,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9555000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 2.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:48:07.499062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.24737399999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.087,
"optimistic_value": 2.08,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:12.626131Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.41229,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:50:29.393112Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.2679885,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 0.65,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:24.540735Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.288603,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 0.7034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:32:58.063801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.41229,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:39:07.418782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.288603,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 0.6675,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:50.757705Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_90922df10d9e7fc0254e50aa",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "525375688037401243",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:13.927005Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "515242588554922957",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:49:00.139558Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:48:05.078713Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "507361289453734501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:29.268655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "498353293087104787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:29.268655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "503983589619767503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:39.391496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:04.080679Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 Dragon Tech 4.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 4.0% $1.21 Downtown 4.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +168.8% | $7.82 +31.9% | 53.3% | +82.9% | $5.93 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.21 Downtown 14.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +497.1% | $3.56 +33.3% | 30.0% | +164.4% | $2.67 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.19 Downtown 2.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +137.6% | $8.67 +29.3% | 60.0% | +70.9% | $6.71 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.91 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.19 Downtown 16.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +611.7% | $2.74 +22.3% | 20.0% | +171.3% | $2.24 | — |