The Recoil Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Poly Mag
1x $0.29
Roadblock
1x $0.31
Rose Hex
3x $0.34
Shredded
2x $0.47
Blush Pour
3x $0.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
26.7% $15.94
Glitched Paint
26.7% $6.74
Bleeding Edge
26.7% $5.85
Dragon Tech
4.0% $1.21
Vent Rush
4.0% $1.21
Downtown
4.0% $1.10
Max Win
$15.94 (+168.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.81 (+31.7%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+89.6%
Cost
$5.93
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.93
Ask Price EV $7.81 (+31.7%)
Bid Price EV $7.09 (+19.5%)
Ask Profit $1.88 (+31.7%)
Bid Profit $1.16 (+19.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.72 (+12.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.88
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.16
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $15.94 (+168.8%)
Worst Case $0.74 (-87.6%)
Volatility +89.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$5.41
Avg Loss -$2.16
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.75 (-87.3%)
Std Dev $5.31
Avg Norm Float 0.2000
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 143h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 56M 12S //TOTAL COST $5.93 //ASK PRICE EV $7.81 //BID PRICE EV $7.09 //ASK PROFIT $1.88 (+31.7%) //BID PROFIT $1.16 (+19.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +89.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$15.94
+$10.01
+168.8%
$14.54
+$8.61
+145.2%
$1.40
8.8%
—
SMALL WIN
26.7%
$6.74
+$0.81
+13.7%
$6.21
+$0.28
+4.7%
$0.53
7.9%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$5.85
-$0.08
-1.4%
$5.14
-$0.79
-13.3%
$0.71
12.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.21
-$4.72
-79.5%
$1.12
-$4.81
-81.1%
$0.09
7.7%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.21
-$4.72
-79.7%
$1.08
-$4.85
-81.8%
$0.13
10.4%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.10
-$4.83
-81.5%
$1.03
-$4.90
-82.6%
$0.07
6.4%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.75
-$5.18
-87.3%
$0.69
-$5.24
-88.4%
$0.06
8.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.74
-$5.19
-87.6%
$0.71
-$5.22
-88.0%
$0.03
3.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1499925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1339933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 6.742,
"optimistic_value": 6.49,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:20.975044Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.11999399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.849,
"optimistic_value": 5.8,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:31.695413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.7505,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:43:49.594942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.1299935,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 1.1,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:46.705623Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.13999299999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.206,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:36.407862Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:51.880369Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.13999299999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.213,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:42.516846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_90922df10d9e7fc0254e50aa",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "509613036860158635",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:24.128190Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "518620235869857460",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:50:27.099244Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:13.900274Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:13.900274Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:53.990807Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:48.808760Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "512990789045079311",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:16.793476Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "494976390476814342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:39.518304Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "519746188258766852",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:13.496283Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "510738989040706534",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:13.496283Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Mulberry 26.7% $5.01 Glitched Paint 26.7% $2.99 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $2.10 Vent Rush 4.0% $0.70 Dragon Tech 4.0% $0.70 Downtown 4.0% $0.69 | $5.01 +80.1% | $2.83 +1.8% | 53.3% | +50.3% | $2.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.21 Downtown 14.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +499.3% | $3.56 +33.9% | 30.0% | +165.1% | $2.66 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.21 Downtown 2.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +136.5% | $8.68 +28.8% | 60.0% | +70.6% | $6.74 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.91 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.21 Downtown 16.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +611.7% | $2.70 +20.5% | 20.0% | +170.0% | $2.24 | — |