The Recoil Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Destroyer
2x $2.01
Shredded
3x $1.33
Blush Pour
3x $1.53
Rose Hex
1x $1.86
Arsenic Spill
1x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
26.7% $33.42
Glitched Paint
26.7% $17.13
Bleeding Edge
26.7% $16.98
Crazy 8
4.0% $10.92
Flora Carnivora
4.0% $10.54
Dragon Tech
4.0% $4.38
Max Win
$33.42 (+41.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.35 (-18.2%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+40.0%
Cost
$23.66
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $23.66
Ask Price EV $19.35 (-18.2%)
Bid Price EV $18.57 (-21.5%)
Ask Profit $-4.31 (-18.2%)
Bid Profit $-5.09 (-21.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.78 (+3.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$4.31
Bid Slippage Buffer -$5.09
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $33.42 (+41.2%)
Worst Case $3.53 (-85.1%)
Volatility +40.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 73.3%
Avg Win +$9.76
Avg Loss -$9.43
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.20 (-82.2%)
Std Dev $9.47
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 145h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.92 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$3.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$4.95 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 27S //TOTAL COST $23.66 //ASK PRICE EV $19.35 //BID PRICE EV $18.57 //ASK PROFIT $-4.31 (-18.2%) //BID PROFIT $-5.09 (-21.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +40.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
26.7%
$33.42
+$9.76
+41.2%
$31.48
+$7.82
+33.1%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$17.13
-$6.53
-27.6%
$16.69
-$6.97
-29.5%
$0.44
2.6%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$16.98
-$6.68
-28.2%
$16.48
-$7.18
-30.3%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$10.92
-$12.74
-53.9%
$10.89
-$12.77
-54.0%
$0.03
0.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$10.54
-$13.13
-55.5%
$10.30
-$13.36
-56.5%
$0.23
2.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$4.38
-$19.28
-81.5%
$4.37
-$19.29
-81.5%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$4.20
-$19.46
-82.2%
$4.19
-$19.47
-82.3%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$3.53
-$20.13
-85.1%
$3.52
-$20.14
-85.1%
$0.01
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.052455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.04685980000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.133499999999998,
"optimistic_value": 16.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:37:00.692920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.041964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 10.535,
"optimistic_value": 10.5,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 10.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:50.965587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.045461,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.53,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 3.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:51:12.580309Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.2,
"optimistic_value": 4.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 4.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:32.597361Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 10.9175,
"optimistic_value": 10.9,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 10.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:45.803453Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.38,
"optimistic_value": 4.38,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:48:11.334412Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_90922df10d9e7fc0254e50aa",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "635712445338920863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:42.814940Z"
},
{
"price": 2.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "518620288312839208",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:42.814940Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "649223316125024632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:45.975803Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:07.160564Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:07.160564Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472790737593455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:40.863466Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:06.932821Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "517494388633695730",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:40.321629Z"
},
{
"price": 3.34,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "529879121829916716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:40.863466Z"
},
{
"price": 4.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "521997822479782266",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:41.338721Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 Dragon Tech 4.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 4.0% $1.21 Downtown 4.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +168.8% | $7.82 +31.9% | 53.3% | +82.9% | $5.93 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.21 Downtown 14.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +497.1% | $3.56 +33.3% | 30.0% | +164.4% | $2.67 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.19 Downtown 2.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +137.6% | $8.67 +29.3% | 60.0% | +70.9% | $6.71 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.91 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.19 Downtown 16.0% $1.11 | $15.94 +611.7% | $2.74 +22.3% | 20.0% | +171.3% | $2.24 | — |