The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Slag
2x $0.11
Irezumi
1x $0.12
Aeolian Light
2x $0.27
Creep
2x $0.28
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
The Daily Deagle
2x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
35.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
35.0% $2.37
Block-18
6.0% $0.77
Etch Lord
6.0% $0.73
Hybrid
6.0% $0.71
Just Smile
6.0% $0.66
Max Win
$5.85 (+111.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.09 (+11.4%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+77.1%
Cost
$2.77
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.77
Ask Price EV $3.09 (+11.4%)
Bid Price EV $2.65 (-4.5%)
Ask Profit $0.32 (+11.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.12 (-4.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.44 (+15.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.32
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.12
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+111.2%)
Worst Case $0.63 (-77.1%)
Volatility +77.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.08
Avg Loss -$1.17
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.63 (-77.1%)
Std Dev $2.14
Avg Norm Float 0.4041
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 152h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 14S //TOTAL COST $2.77 //ASK PRICE EV $3.09 //BID PRICE EV $2.65 //ASK PROFIT $0.32 (+11.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.12 (-4.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +77.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$5.85
+$3.08
+111.2%
$4.91
+$2.14
+77.3%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$2.37
-$0.40
-14.6%
$2.13
-$0.64
-23.1%
$0.24
10.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.77
-$2.00
-72.2%
$0.71
-$2.06
-74.4%
$0.06
7.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.73
-$2.04
-73.6%
$0.58
-$2.19
-79.1%
$0.15
20.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$2.06
-74.4%
$0.57
-$2.20
-79.4%
$0.14
19.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.66
-$2.11
-76.2%
$0.57
-$2.20
-79.4%
$0.09
13.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.63
-$2.14
-77.1%
$0.60
-$2.17
-78.3%
$0.03
5.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.303105,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.282898,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.366,
"optimistic_value": 2.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:36.738814Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.40414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:11.263775Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2715315625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 0.771,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:11:50.072397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.40414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:07.825109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.40414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.66,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:34:42.881886Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2501060804,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 0.6335,
"optimistic_value": 0.63,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:36.749171Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8f6b906906ade9886a1e8111",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "500605942756033235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:54.878702Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "506235442367696688",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:24.112947Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506235442368057084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:54.878702Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "529879287550318068",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:54.017539Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "511864888986026637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:52.084860Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "508487242222263242",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:52.084860Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "492724643507806221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:21.338948Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "506235442367927376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:53.352914Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "511864941882227217",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:46.337713Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "510738989040034450",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:46.337713Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:3+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 Block-18 6.0% $1.40 Analog Input 6.0% $1.02 Hybrid 6.0% $0.72 Just Smile 6.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +154.0% | $6.29 +30.4% | 70.0% | +92.5% | $4.82 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 35.0% $14.55 Block-18 6.0% $4.18 Analog Input 6.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 6.0% $1.71 Just Smile 6.0% $1.61 | $26.93 +108.2% | $15.24 +17.8% | 70.0% | +71.9% | $12.93 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 Block-18 8.0% $1.35 Analog Input 8.0% $1.02 Hybrid 8.0% $0.72 Just Smile 8.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +187.4% | $5.51 +29.5% | 60.0% | +106.0% | $4.26 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.71 Block-18 12.0% $1.41 Analog Input 12.0% $0.99 Just Smile 12.0% $0.75 Hybrid 12.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +300.2% | $3.94 +28.7% | 40.0% | +139.4% | $3.06 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.71 Block-18 4.0% $1.41 Analog Input 4.0% $0.99 Just Smile 4.0% $0.75 Hybrid 4.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +123.4% | $6.96 +27.1% | 40.0% | +79.4% | $5.48 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.57 Block-18 10.0% $1.35 Analog Input 10.0% $1.02 Hybrid 10.0% $0.72 Just Smile 10.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +230.9% | $4.66 +25.8% | 50.0% | +120.6% | $3.70 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.93 Block-18 14.0% $1.40 Analog Input 14.0% $1.02 Hybrid 14.0% $0.72 Just Smile 14.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +372.8% | $3.22 +24.1% | 30.0% | +152.3% | $2.59 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.71 Block-18 2.0% $1.40 Analog Input 2.0% $1.02 Just Smile 2.0% $0.75 Hybrid 2.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +90.4% | $7.72 +20.1% | 45.0% | +64.0% | $6.43 | — |