The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Dark Sigil
1x $0.84
Dezastre
1x $1.63
Slag
1x $2.08
Aeolian Light
1x $0.94
Creep
3x $1.75
Grip Tape
2x $2.14
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
35.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
35.0% $14.55
Etch Lord
6.0% $10.49
Just Smile
6.0% $9.45
Hybrid
6.0% $8.10
Block-18
6.0% $4.18
Max Win
$26.93 (+44.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.63 (-10.6%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+44.6%
Cost
$18.59
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.59
Ask Price EV $16.63 (-10.6%)
Bid Price EV $16.02 (-13.8%)
Ask Profit $-1.96 (-10.6%)
Bid Profit $-2.57 (-13.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.60 (+3.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.96
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.57
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+44.8%)
Worst Case $2.99 (-83.9%)
Volatility +44.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$8.34
Avg Loss -$7.51
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.99 (-83.9%)
Std Dev $8.30
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 13h 32m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.98 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.35 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 50S //TOTAL COST $18.59 //ASK PRICE EV $16.63 //BID PRICE EV $16.02 //ASK PROFIT $-1.96 (-10.6%) //BID PROFIT $-2.57 (-13.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +44.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
35.0%
$26.93
+$8.34
+44.8%
$26.63
+$8.04
+43.2%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$14.55
-$4.05
-21.8%
$13.16
-$5.43
-29.2%
$1.38
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$10.49
-$8.10
-43.6%
$10.32
-$8.27
-44.5%
$0.17
1.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.45
-$9.14
-49.2%
$9.40
-$9.19
-49.4%
$0.05
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$8.10
-$10.49
-56.4%
$8.09
-$10.50
-56.5%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.18
-$14.41
-77.5%
$4.17
-$14.42
-77.6%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.99
-$15.60
-83.9%
$2.96
-$15.63
-84.1%
$0.03
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.052305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.04881799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.545,
"optimistic_value": 14.44,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:14.291603Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 8.1,
"optimistic_value": 8.1,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 8.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:52:36.516424Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0468565625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.18,
"optimistic_value": 4.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:55:48.015487Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 10.493500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.49,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 10.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:46.635738Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4505,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 9.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:40.884285Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0431592964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:26.301033Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8f6b906906ade9886a1e8111",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "509613089305575423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:34.153971Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "510739041954311890",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:52:45.498339Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506234592363307536",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:20.174167Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:08.859818Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "503983642532704231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:35.789474Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:35.789474Z"
},
{
"price": 1.98,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "653726915754482667",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:35.789474Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "526501640651063345",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:18.375810Z"
},
{
"price": 2.35,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620341243286300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:18.375810Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:43.958491Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:3+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 Block-18 6.0% $1.40 Analog Input 6.0% $1.02 Hybrid 6.0% $0.72 Just Smile 6.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +154.0% | $6.29 +30.4% | 70.0% | +92.5% | $4.82 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 35.0% $14.55 Block-18 6.0% $4.18 Analog Input 6.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 6.0% $1.71 Just Smile 6.0% $1.61 | $26.93 +108.2% | $15.24 +17.8% | 70.0% | +71.9% | $12.93 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 35.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.37 Block-18 6.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.73 Hybrid 6.0% $0.71 Just Smile 6.0% $0.66 | $5.85 +111.2% | $3.09 +11.4% | 35.0% | +74.0% | $2.77 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 Block-18 8.0% $1.35 Analog Input 8.0% $1.02 Hybrid 8.0% $0.72 Just Smile 8.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +187.4% | $5.51 +29.5% | 60.0% | +106.0% | $4.26 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.71 Block-18 12.0% $1.41 Analog Input 12.0% $0.99 Just Smile 12.0% $0.75 Hybrid 12.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +300.2% | $3.94 +28.7% | 40.0% | +139.4% | $3.06 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.71 Block-18 4.0% $1.41 Analog Input 4.0% $0.99 Just Smile 4.0% $0.75 Hybrid 4.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +123.4% | $6.96 +27.1% | 40.0% | +79.4% | $5.48 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.57 Block-18 10.0% $1.35 Analog Input 10.0% $1.02 Hybrid 10.0% $0.72 Just Smile 10.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +230.9% | $4.66 +25.8% | 50.0% | +120.6% | $3.70 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.93 Block-18 14.0% $1.40 Analog Input 14.0% $1.02 Hybrid 14.0% $0.72 Just Smile 14.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +372.8% | $3.22 +24.1% | 30.0% | +152.3% | $2.59 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.71 Block-18 2.0% $1.40 Analog Input 2.0% $1.02 Just Smile 2.0% $0.75 Hybrid 2.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +90.4% | $7.72 +20.1% | 45.0% | +64.0% | $6.43 | — |