The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Caged
1x $0.20
Red Wing
1x $0.25
Trigger Discipline
1x $0.26
Broken Record
1x $0.39
Bock Blocks
2x $0.24
Fragment
2x $0.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Liquidation
8.0% $7.67
Electrum
12.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
12.0% $5.02
Galigator
12.0% $3.23
Amberline
12.0% $3.17
Urban Sovereign
12.0% $3.13
Max Win
$7.67 (+133.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.87 (+18.1%)
Win %
32.0%
Volatility
+58.3%
Cost
$3.28
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.28
Ask Price EV $3.87 (+18.1%)
Bid Price EV $3.50 (+6.6%)
Ask Profit $0.59 (+18.1%)
Bid Profit $0.22 (+6.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.38 (+11.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.59
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.22
Risk
Win Probability 32.0%
Loss Probability 68.0%
Best Case $7.67 (+133.8%)
Worst Case $2.00 (-39.0%)
Volatility +58.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$3.14
Avg Loss -$0.61
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.00 (-39.0%)
Std Dev $1.91
Avg Norm Float 0.1495
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 147h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Trigger Discipline
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 38S //TOTAL COST $3.28 //ASK PRICE EV $3.87 //BID PRICE EV $3.50 //ASK PROFIT $0.59 (+18.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.22 (+6.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 32.0% //BEST CASE $7.67 //VOLATILITY +58.3% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$7.67
+$4.39
+133.8%
$6.71
+$3.43
+104.6%
$0.96
12.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$7.00
+$3.72
+113.3%
$5.93
+$2.65
+80.8%
$1.07
15.2%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$5.02
+$1.74
+53.0%
$3.97
+$0.69
+21.0%
$1.05
20.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$3.23
-$0.05
-1.4%
$3.17
-$0.11
-3.4%
$0.06
1.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$3.17
-$0.11
-3.4%
$3.13
-$0.15
-4.6%
$0.04
1.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$3.13
-$0.15
-4.7%
$3.08
-$0.20
-6.1%
$0.05
1.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$2.26
-$1.02
-31.1%
$2.04
-$1.24
-37.8%
$0.22
9.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$2.12
-$1.16
-35.4%
$2.03
-$1.25
-38.1%
$0.09
4.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$2.05
-$1.23
-37.5%
$2.03
-$1.25
-38.1%
$0.02
1.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$2.00
-$1.28
-39.0%
$1.99
-$1.29
-39.3%
$0.01
0.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.2325,
"optimistic_value": 3.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:13:54.513155Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.1670000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 3.16,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:36.252682Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.1270000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 3.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:08:45.044296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 2.1205,
"optimistic_value": 2.11,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:54.117783Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 7.667,
"optimistic_value": 7.66,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.771865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 2.261,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:32.279427Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 2.0505,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:34.699331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14949,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:59.743403Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8f4bdfa56ab20ffb793b0037",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620235869812316",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:02:19.755457Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "511864091802652641",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:31.896469Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-ab9a15ef8110",
"listing_id": "508487023589045078",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab9a15ef8110.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:20.538984Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "641341944860654767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:12:28.011901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "517494388634463934",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:03.596058Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "523123888072505314",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:50.458190Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "512990789044719455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:50.458190Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "492724590627248901",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:13.829149Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "517494388634438914",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:50.162645Z"
},
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:13.829149Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-community-37:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.86 Amberline 12.0% $1.74 | $4.11 +134.9% | $2.18 +24.8% | 56.0% | +50.9% | $1.75 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.34 Amberline 10.0% $3.17 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $3.11 | $7.67 +141.9% | $3.77 +19.0% | 40.0% | +52.9% | $3.17 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Electrum 14.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 14.0% $5.02 Galigator 14.0% $3.34 Amberline 14.0% $3.17 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $3.11 | $7.67 +127.5% | $4.00 +18.6% | 34.0% | +46.7% | $3.37 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.90 Amberline 16.0% $1.80 | $4.11 +103.5% | $2.38 +17.7% | 52.0% | +41.7% | $2.02 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Electrum 6.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 6.0% $5.02 Galigator 6.0% $3.34 Amberline 6.0% $3.17 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $3.12 | $7.67 +149.7% | $3.55 +15.7% | 44.0% | +58.6% | $3.07 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Liquidation 2.0% $4.01 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $1.89 Amberline 18.0% $1.76 | $4.11 +93.0% | $2.46 +15.4% | 56.0% | +39.8% | $2.13 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Liquidation 12.0% $7.67 Electrum 8.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 8.0% $5.02 Galigator 8.0% $3.34 Amberline 8.0% $3.17 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $3.11 | $7.67 +140.3% | $3.66 +14.8% | 36.0% | +54.4% | $3.19 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  13.3% $35.39 Ice Coaled  20.0% $11.85 Smoking Kills  20.0% $10.58 Deathgaze  13.3% $9.87 Kintsugi  13.3% $9.49 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $9.43 | $35.39 +225.9% | $13.67 +25.9% | 33.3% | +78.8% | $10.86 | — |