The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Red Wing
2x $0.13
Caged
2x $0.15
Zubastick
3x $0.16
Dark Polymer
1x $0.21
Fragment
1x $0.34
Bock Blocks
1x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
12.0% $4.11
Liquidation
8.0% $4.01
Firebreathing
12.0% $2.79
Galigator
12.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
12.0% $1.90
Amberline
12.0% $1.85
Max Win
$4.11 (+102.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.20 (+8.6%)
Win %
44.0%
Volatility
+53.4%
Cost
$2.03
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.03
Ask Price EV $2.20 (+8.6%)
Bid Price EV $1.92 (-5.4%)
Ask Profit $0.17 (+8.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.11 (-5.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.28 (+14.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.17
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.11
Risk
Win Probability 44.0%
Loss Probability 56.0%
Best Case $4.11 (+102.5%)
Worst Case $1.02 (-49.9%)
Volatility +53.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$1.18
Avg Loss -$0.61
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.02 (-49.9%)
Std Dev $1.08
Avg Norm Float 0.3534
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 146h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 14M 53S //TOTAL COST $2.03 //ASK PRICE EV $2.20 //BID PRICE EV $1.92 //ASK PROFIT $0.17 (+8.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.11 (-5.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 44.0% //BEST CASE $4.11 //VOLATILITY +53.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.0%
$4.11
+$2.08
+102.5%
$3.61
+$1.58
+77.8%
$0.50
12.2%
—
BIG WIN
8.0%
$4.01
+$1.98
+97.8%
$3.61
+$1.58
+77.8%
$0.40
10.1%
—
WIN
12.0%
$2.79
+$0.76
+37.3%
$2.32
+$0.29
+14.3%
$0.47
16.8%
—
PAPER WIN
12.0%
$2.19
+$0.16
+7.7%
$1.74
-$0.29
-14.3%
$0.45
20.4%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$1.90
-$0.13
-6.5%
$1.63
-$0.40
-19.7%
$0.27
14.1%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$1.85
-$0.18
-8.7%
$1.63
-$0.40
-19.7%
$0.22
12.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.13
-$0.90
-44.3%
$1.04
-$0.99
-48.8%
$0.09
8.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.08
-$0.95
-46.6%
$0.96
-$1.07
-52.7%
$0.12
11.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.05
-$0.98
-48.3%
$1.01
-$1.02
-50.2%
$0.04
3.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.02
-$1.01
-49.9%
$0.99
-$1.04
-51.2%
$0.03
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.35343,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.35343,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.35343,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.35343,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.854,
"optimistic_value": 1.84,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:02.492237Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.35343,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.8975,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:02.702609Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.35343,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.017,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:20.835470Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.35343,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.0145,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.174520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.35343,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:16:13.485553Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.35343,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.0505,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:38.334374Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.35343,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.0835000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.08,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:17.186310Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8f4bdfa56ab20ffb793b0037",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "501731789730852593",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:43.419924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "519746188257532268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:43.419924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "505109489448765488",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:23.163361Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "526501535294599109",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:23.163361Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "523123888072950022",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:39.019434Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287550965708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:39.019434Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "493850490549435088",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:39.019434Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "498354089953932655",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:21.421834Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "516368436281402378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:29.919693Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "515242588554681613",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:26.998108Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-community-37:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Electrum 12.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 12.0% $5.02 Galigator 12.0% $3.38 Amberline 12.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $3.14 | $7.67 +117.2% | $3.90 +10.6% | 32.0% | +45.5% | $3.53 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Liquidation 8.0% $19.42 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.25 Amberline 12.0% $10.24 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $10.00 | $19.50 +85.2% | $11.23 +6.6% | 44.0% | +35.8% | $10.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.76 Amberline 8.0% $1.72 | $4.11 +144.7% | $2.00 +19.0% | 52.0% | +56.7% | $1.68 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.90 Amberline 16.0% $1.72 | $4.11 +99.6% | $2.36 +14.8% | 52.0% | +41.5% | $2.06 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.90 Amberline 10.0% $1.72 | $4.11 +123.4% | $2.10 +14.1% | 50.0% | +49.8% | $1.84 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Electrum 6.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 6.0% $5.02 Galigator 6.0% $3.38 Amberline 6.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $3.15 | $7.67 +142.6% | $3.56 +12.8% | 38.0% | +56.7% | $3.16 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Electrum 14.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 14.0% $5.02 Galigator 14.0% $3.28 Amberline 14.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $3.15 | $7.67 +115.4% | $4.01 +12.6% | 34.0% | +44.0% | $3.56 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Liquidation 2.0% $7.67 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.38 Amberline 18.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $3.15 | $7.67 +98.1% | $4.25 +9.8% | 38.0% | +38.6% | $3.87 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  16.7% $35.39 Ice Coaled  16.7% $11.85 Deathgaze  16.7% $10.70 Smoking Kills  16.7% $10.31 Kintsugi  16.7% $9.69 Mirror Mosaic  16.7% $9.63 | $35.39 +206.4% | $14.59 +26.4% | 33.3% | +80.8% | $11.55 | — |