The CS20 Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Classic Crate
1x $0.86
Assault
1x $2.00
Motorized
1x $0.35
Slag
2x $0.38
Dezastre
2x $0.61
Light Box
1x $0.76
↓
Possible Outputs
Agent
4.0% $29.05
Etch Lord
16.0% $13.06
Buddy
4.0% $9.69
Plastique
4.0% $9.47
Inferno
4.0% $9.33
Just Smile
16.0% $9.31
Max Win
$29.05 (+193.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.52 (-3.7%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+48.0%
Cost
$9.89
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.89
Ask Price EV $9.52 (-3.7%)
Bid Price EV $8.37 (-15.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.37 (-3.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.52 (-15.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.15 (+11.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.37
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.52
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $29.05 (+193.7%)
Worst Case $4.14 (-58.1%)
Volatility +48.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$6.37
Avg Loss -$2.05
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.14 (-58.1%)
Std Dev $4.75
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 29m
Oldest Output Price 152h 2m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Classic Crate
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Assault
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.07 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 13S //TOTAL COST $9.89 //ASK PRICE EV $9.52 //BID PRICE EV $8.37 //ASK PROFIT $-0.37 (-3.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.52 (-15.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $29.05 //VOLATILITY +48.0% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$29.05
+$19.16
+193.7%
$24.09
+$14.20
+143.6%
$4.96
17.1%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$13.06
+$3.17
+32.0%
$12.03
+$2.14
+21.6%
$1.03
7.9%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$9.69
-$0.20
-2.0%
$7.59
-$2.30
-23.3%
$2.10
21.7%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$9.47
-$0.42
-4.3%
$8.37
-$1.52
-15.4%
$1.10
11.6%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$9.33
-$0.56
-5.7%
$8.48
-$1.41
-14.3%
$0.85
9.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$9.31
-$0.58
-5.8%
$7.85
-$2.04
-20.6%
$1.46
15.7%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$8.90
-$0.99
-10.0%
$7.77
-$2.12
-21.4%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$7.89
-$2.00
-20.2%
$7.43
-$2.46
-24.9%
$0.46
5.8%
—
LOSS THIN BID
4.0%
$7.33
-$2.56
-25.9%
$5.38
-$4.51
-45.6%
$1.95
26.6%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.14
-$5.75
-58.1%
$3.76
-$6.13
-62.0%
$0.38
9.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-24|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-24"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:56.987645Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.04702453125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:45.506580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0433140114,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.1395,
"optimistic_value": 4.08,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:29.082370Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0384945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-31de22ad9746",
"realistic_value": 9.694500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 9.46,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Buddy",
"conservative_value": 7.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T17:41:03.882537Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-31de22ad9746.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0524925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ca39d6a9fe2",
"realistic_value": 7.3294999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 7.27,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Aztec",
"conservative_value": 5.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:52.998913Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ca39d6a9fe2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4ef86547d990",
"realistic_value": 29.0475,
"optimistic_value": 28.54,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Agent",
"conservative_value": 24.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:25:46.088683Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4ef86547d990.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0475932,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5bcef416d83b",
"realistic_value": 9.3305,
"optimistic_value": 9.25,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Inferno",
"conservative_value": 8.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:28:42.890128Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5bcef416d83b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.055992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-520d7a1ce647",
"realistic_value": 9.468499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 9.36,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Plastique",
"conservative_value": 8.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:38:48.942466Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-520d7a1ce647.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8f2a610c423323916fa63e5f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d136bb4f23cb",
"listing_id": "515241791632534381",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Classic Crate",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d136bb4f23cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:16:35.518763Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-df8e665e3faa",
"listing_id": "518619491402839852",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Assault",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-df8e665e3faa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:07.984483Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:47.072238Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "508486392212133206",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:16:47.959029Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "493850324808131632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:16:47.959029Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:28:15.279833Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:18.945881Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:21.603800Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:24:37.112782Z"
},
{
"price": 2.07,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "523123940969526586",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:50.758041Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-24:2+collection-set-community-33:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The CS20 Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Agent 4.0% $5.44 Buddy 4.0% $5.28 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Inferno 4.0% $3.76 Aztec 4.0% $3.57 | $5.44 +84.5% | $3.51 +18.8% | 68.0% | +23.9% | $2.95 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Buddy 4.0% $5.28 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Inferno 4.0% $3.76 Agent 4.0% $2.67 Etch Lord 16.0% $2.31 Analog Input 16.0% $1.95 | $5.28 +149.2% | $2.42 +14.1% | 44.0% | +45.8% | $2.12 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The CS20 Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Agent 6.0% $5.44 Buddy 6.0% $5.28 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Inferno 6.0% $3.76 Aztec 6.0% $3.57 | $5.44 +79.6% | $3.60 +18.8% | 72.0% | +23.9% | $3.03 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Agent 2.0% $5.44 Buddy 2.0% $5.28 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Inferno 2.0% $3.76 Aztec 2.0% $3.57 | $5.44 +87.7% | $3.41 +17.6% | 64.0% | +23.4% | $2.90 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Agent 8.0% $5.44 Buddy 8.0% $5.28 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Inferno 8.0% $3.76 Aztec 8.0% $3.57 | $5.44 +67.5% | $3.69 +13.6% | 68.0% | +22.8% | $3.25 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Agent 10.0% $5.44 Buddy 10.0% $5.28 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Inferno 10.0% $3.76 Aztec 10.0% $3.57 | $5.44 +57.3% | $3.79 +9.4% | 60.0% | +21.7% | $3.46 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The CS20 Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  23.3% $23.51 Hydra  10.0% $19.93 Jawbreaker  23.3% $14.90 Death by Puppy  10.0% $12.66 Nostalgia  10.0% $12.46 Olympus  23.3% $8.69 | $23.51 +67.6% | $15.49 +10.4% | 56.7% | +38.8% | $14.03 | — |