The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Zeno
2x $0.65
Warm Blooded
3x $0.37
Sky Mandala
3x $0.40
Earth Mandala
2x $0.46
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
40.0% $6.87
Arctic Tri-Tone
6.7% $6.57
Heat Treated
6.7% $6.16
Crimson Foil
6.7% $6.08
Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.47
Max Win
$6.87 (+35.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.99 (-1.4%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+41.0%
Cost
$5.06
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.06
Ask Price EV $4.99 (-1.4%)
Bid Price EV $4.71 (-6.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.07 (-1.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.35 (-6.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.28 (+5.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.35
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $6.87 (+35.9%)
Worst Case $2.47 (-51.3%)
Volatility +41.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$1.61
Avg Loss -$2.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.47 (-51.3%)
Std Dev $2.08
Avg Norm Float 0.4430
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 133h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Zeno
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Zeno
—
Field-Tested
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 50S //TOTAL COST $5.06 //ASK PRICE EV $4.99 //BID PRICE EV $4.71 //ASK PROFIT $-0.07 (-1.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.35 (-6.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $6.87 //VOLATILITY +41.0% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
40.0%
$6.87
+$1.81
+35.9%
$6.58
+$1.52
+30.0%
$0.29
4.3%
—
WIN
6.7%
$6.57
+$1.51
+29.8%
$5.93
+$0.87
+17.2%
$0.64
9.7%
—
WIN
6.7%
$6.16
+$1.10
+21.8%
$5.83
+$0.77
+15.2%
$0.33
5.4%
—
WIN
6.7%
$6.08
+$1.02
+20.2%
$5.98
+$0.92
+18.2%
$0.10
1.7%
—
NUKE
40.0%
$2.47
-$2.59
-51.3%
$2.25
-$2.81
-55.5%
$0.22
8.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-realism-camo|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.31007899999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 6.8745,
"optimistic_value": 6.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:13:33.742714Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.31007899999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.466,
"optimistic_value": 2.41,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:36.302840Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.44297,
"output_skin_id": "skin-277f6e42830d",
"realistic_value": 6.163,
"optimistic_value": 6.1,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Heat Treated",
"conservative_value": 5.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:57:27.723683Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-277f6e42830d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.26578199999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-209298d0eb05",
"realistic_value": 6.5675,
"optimistic_value": 6.55,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T15:56:47.536334Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-209298d0eb05.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.30121960000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8ea306517618",
"realistic_value": 6.0805,
"optimistic_value": 6.07,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Crimson Foil",
"conservative_value": 5.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:25:37.003661Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ea306517618.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8e38a021caf923f0657177af",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-6aaf237dc6ae",
"listing_id": "525375688037398219",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Zeno",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6aaf237dc6ae.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:09:05.289675Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-6aaf237dc6ae",
"listing_id": "501731789730611357",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Zeno",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6aaf237dc6ae.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:09:05.289675Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "498354089952770539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:44.049042Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:41.679068Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "493850490550582840",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:02.985493Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "490472790737714703",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:08.924940Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "502857689862732112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:08.924940Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737290515",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:05.450947Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "499479989897047513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:05.450947Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "517494336189226390",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:02.985493Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-realism-camo:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $6.87 Arctic Tri-Tone 6.7% $6.57 Heat Treated 6.7% $6.17 Crimson Foil 6.7% $6.08 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.47 | $6.87 +43.2% | $4.99 +4.0% | 60.0% | +43.2% | $4.80 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Arctic Tri-Tone 3.3% $6.57 Heat Treated 3.3% $6.17 Crimson Foil 3.3% $6.08 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +115.1% | $6.04 +31.8% | 55.0% | +79.6% | $4.58 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Arctic Tri-Tone 10.0% $6.57 Crimson Foil 10.0% $6.25 Heat Treated 10.0% $6.17 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +95.1% | $6.11 +20.9% | 65.0% | +63.7% | $5.05 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Arctic Tri-Tone 13.3% $8.73 Crimson Foil 13.3% $8.63 Heat Treated 13.3% $6.39 | $13.56 +40.8% | $10.78 +12.0% | 60.0% | +26.3% | $9.63 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Arctic Tri-Tone 16.7% $8.66 Crimson Foil 16.7% $8.63 Heat Treated 16.7% $6.39 | $13.56 +41.1% | $10.29 +7.1% | 50.0% | +26.9% | $9.61 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 20.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Arctic Tri-Tone 20.0% $18.99 Crimson Foil 20.0% $18.88 Heat Treated 20.0% $12.43 | $26.82 +36.0% | $20.35 +3.2% | 40.0% | +25.5% | $19.72 | — |