The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Yorkshire
2x $0.66
Fraise Crane
2x $0.35
Warm Blooded
4x $0.36
Sky Mandala
2x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
40.0% $9.85
Arctic Tri-Tone
6.7% $6.57
Heat Treated
6.7% $6.17
Crimson Foil
6.7% $6.08
Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.17
Max Win
$9.85 (+82.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.06 (+12.5%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+63.8%
Cost
$5.39
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $5.39
Ask Price EV $6.06 (+12.5%)
Bid Price EV $4.63 (-14.1%)
Ask Profit $0.67 (+12.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.76 (-14.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.44 (+26.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.67
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.76
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $9.85 (+82.8%)
Worst Case $2.17 (-59.7%)
Volatility +63.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.27
Avg Loss -$3.22
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.17 (-59.7%)
Std Dev $3.44
Avg Norm Float 0.5536
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 5m
Oldest Output Price 143h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Yorkshire
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Yorkshire
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Well-Worn
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 17M 05S //TOTAL COST $5.39 //ASK PRICE EV $6.06 //BID PRICE EV $4.63 //ASK PROFIT $0.67 (+12.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.76 (-14.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +63.8% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
40.0%
$9.85
+$4.46
+82.8%
$6.64
+$1.25
+23.2%
$3.21
32.6%
—
WIN
6.7%
$6.57
+$1.18
+21.8%
$5.93
+$0.54
+10.0%
$0.64
9.7%
—
SMALL WIN
6.7%
$6.17
+$0.78
+14.6%
$5.72
+$0.33
+6.1%
$0.45
7.4%
—
SMALL WIN
6.7%
$6.08
+$0.69
+12.8%
$5.98
+$0.59
+10.9%
$0.10
1.7%
—
NUKE
40.0%
$2.17
-$3.22
-59.7%
$1.99
-$3.40
-63.1%
$0.18
8.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-realism-camo|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.387527,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 9.8505,
"optimistic_value": 9.77,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.387527,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.1715,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:55.782048Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.55361,
"output_skin_id": "skin-277f6e42830d",
"realistic_value": 6.1745,
"optimistic_value": 6.15,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Heat Treated",
"conservative_value": 5.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:07:28.387240Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-277f6e42830d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.332166,
"output_skin_id": "skin-209298d0eb05",
"realistic_value": 6.5675,
"optimistic_value": 6.55,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T15:56:47.536334Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-209298d0eb05.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.37645480000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8ea306517618",
"realistic_value": 6.0805,
"optimistic_value": 6.07,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Crimson Foil",
"conservative_value": 5.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:26.338345Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ea306517618.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8e38a021caf923f0657177af",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-ad8878d8dfca",
"listing_id": "509612923504174467",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Yorkshire (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Nova | Yorkshire",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad8878d8dfca.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:11.697583Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-ad8878d8dfca",
"listing_id": "524248990846344375",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Yorkshire (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Nova | Yorkshire",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad8878d8dfca.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:11.697583Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "525375688036657555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:20.939582Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738989040015694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.245152Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:12.826284Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "502857689862651292",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:10.454088Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "499479989896979941",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:28.988837Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737290515",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:28.988837Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "494976390476927238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:29.403025Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494975741590866474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:28.988837Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-realism-camo:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Arctic Tri-Tone 10.0% $6.57 Crimson Foil 10.0% $6.25 Heat Treated 10.0% $6.17 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.15 | $9.85 +97.4% | $6.10 +22.2% | 65.0% | +64.7% | $4.99 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Arctic Tri-Tone 13.3% $6.57 Crimson Foil 13.3% $6.25 Heat Treated 13.3% $6.17 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +87.6% | $6.14 +16.9% | 70.0% | +56.8% | $5.25 | — |