The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Yorkshire
1x $1.53
Alpine Camo
1x $1.70
Earth Mandala
3x $2.30
Warm Blooded
4x $2.36
Sky Mandala
1x $3.96
↓
Possible Outputs
Heat Treated
6.7% $61.93
Exothermic
40.0% $26.82
Sleeping Potion
40.0% $24.63
Arctic Tri-Tone
6.7% $18.99
Crimson Foil
6.7% $18.88
Max Win
$61.93 (+116.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$27.23 (-4.6%)
Win %
6.7%
Volatility
+33.6%
Cost
$28.55
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $28.55
Ask Price EV $27.23 (-4.6%)
Bid Price EV $25.84 (-9.5%)
Ask Profit $-1.32 (-4.6%)
Bid Profit $-2.71 (-9.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.39 (+4.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.32
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.71
Risk
Win Probability 6.7%
Loss Probability 93.3%
Best Case $61.93 (+116.9%)
Worst Case $18.88 (-33.9%)
Volatility +33.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 13.3%
Avg Win +$33.38
Avg Loss -$3.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $18.88 (-33.9%)
Std Dev $9.60
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 144h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Yorkshire
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Alpine Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.70 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$5.15 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 50S //TOTAL COST $28.55 //ASK PRICE EV $27.23 //BID PRICE EV $25.84 //ASK PROFIT $-1.32 (-4.6%) //BID PROFIT $-2.71 (-9.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 6.7% //BEST CASE $61.93 //VOLATILITY +33.6% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$61.93
+$33.38
+116.9%
$60.69
+$32.14
+112.6%
$1.24
2.0%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$26.82
-$1.73
-6.1%
$25.99
-$2.56
-9.0%
$0.83
3.1%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$24.63
-$3.92
-13.7%
$22.28
-$6.27
-22.0%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$18.99
-$9.56
-33.5%
$18.80
-$9.75
-34.2%
$0.19
1.0%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$18.88
-$9.67
-33.9%
$18.49
-$10.06
-35.2%
$0.39
2.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-realism-camo|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.04893,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.8185,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:06.957093Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.04893,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-277f6e42830d",
"realistic_value": 61.9255,
"optimistic_value": 61.81,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Heat Treated",
"conservative_value": 60.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:59:00.646656Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-277f6e42830d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-209298d0eb05",
"realistic_value": 18.9885,
"optimistic_value": 18.81,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone",
"conservative_value": 18.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:34.871007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-209298d0eb05.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.047532000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8ea306517618",
"realistic_value": 18.8765,
"optimistic_value": 18.81,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Crimson Foil",
"conservative_value": 18.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:39.284773Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ea306517618.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8e38a021caf923f0657177af",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-ad8878d8dfca",
"listing_id": "518620288314386308",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Yorkshire",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad8878d8dfca.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:58:01.807107Z"
},
{
"price": 1.7,
"skin_id": "skin-7d2a2ccef9f1",
"listing_id": "523123835627118406",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7d2a2ccef9f1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:08.050649Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.818949Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.818949Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.818949Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:46.233254Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
},
{
"price": 5.15,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "521997822478339278",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-realism-camo:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $6.87 Arctic Tri-Tone 6.7% $6.57 Heat Treated 6.7% $6.17 Crimson Foil 6.7% $6.08 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.47 | $6.87 +43.2% | $4.99 +4.0% | 60.0% | +43.2% | $4.80 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Arctic Tri-Tone 3.3% $6.57 Heat Treated 3.3% $6.17 Crimson Foil 3.3% $6.08 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +115.1% | $6.04 +31.8% | 55.0% | +79.6% | $4.58 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Arctic Tri-Tone 10.0% $6.57 Crimson Foil 10.0% $6.25 Heat Treated 10.0% $6.17 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.17 | $9.85 +95.1% | $6.11 +20.9% | 65.0% | +63.7% | $5.05 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Arctic Tri-Tone 13.3% $8.73 Crimson Foil 13.3% $8.63 Heat Treated 13.3% $6.39 | $13.56 +40.8% | $10.78 +12.0% | 60.0% | +26.3% | $9.63 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Arctic Tri-Tone 16.7% $8.66 Crimson Foil 16.7% $8.63 Heat Treated 16.7% $6.39 | $13.56 +41.1% | $10.29 +7.1% | 50.0% | +26.9% | $9.61 | — |
The Sport & Field Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 20.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Arctic Tri-Tone 20.0% $18.99 Crimson Foil 20.0% $18.88 Heat Treated 20.0% $12.43 | $26.82 +36.0% | $20.35 +3.2% | 40.0% | +25.5% | $19.72 | — |