The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Snow Splash
2x $0.29
Snow Splash
1x $0.38
Dark Chamber
1x $1.12
Electric Blue
2x $0.20
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.36
Rose Nacre
2x $0.49
↓
Possible Outputs
Yeti Camo
12.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
12.0% $3.33
Cobalt Paisley
12.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
12.0% $2.64
Creep
10.0% $2.38
The Daily Deagle
10.0% $2.28
Max Win
$4.46 (-2.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.70 (-40.7%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+16.6%
Cost
$4.56
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.56
Ask Price EV $2.70 (-40.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.65 (-41.9%)
Ask Profit $-1.86 (-40.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.91 (-41.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.05 (+1.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.86
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.91
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $4.46 (-2.2%)
Worst Case $1.89 (-58.5%)
Volatility +16.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 88.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$1.86
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.89 (-58.5%)
Std Dev $0.76
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 4h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Factory New
$1.12 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 09M 56S //TOTAL COST $4.56 //ASK PRICE EV $2.70 //BID PRICE EV $2.65 //ASK PROFIT $-1.86 (-40.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.91 (-41.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $4.46 //VOLATILITY +16.6% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
12.0%
$4.46
-$0.10
-2.2%
$4.43
-$0.13
-2.9%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$3.33
-$1.23
-27.0%
$3.30
-$1.26
-27.6%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.65
-$1.91
-41.9%
$2.62
-$1.94
-42.5%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.64
-$1.92
-42.0%
$2.62
-$1.94
-42.5%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.38
-$2.18
-47.9%
$2.34
-$2.22
-48.7%
$0.04
1.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.28
-$2.28
-50.0%
$2.26
-$2.30
-50.4%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.21
-$2.35
-51.6%
$1.99
-$2.57
-56.4%
$0.22
9.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.14
-$2.42
-53.1%
$2.10
-$2.46
-53.9%
$0.04
1.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.89
-$2.67
-58.5%
$1.86
-$2.70
-59.2%
$0.03
1.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.331,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:12:12.547167Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.045487,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:26.203613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:37.073219Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.2070000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:25.826437Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.055984000000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.3770000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:44.781969Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0405884,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:43.632805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.1405,
"optimistic_value": 2.13,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:31.020043Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.045487,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.894,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:13:54.871584Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8dfa6c5fc7d6f6ea97f44dba",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "501731737287941837",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:43.629734Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "512990789045649983",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:43.629734Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "506235389470224624",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:52.217590Z"
},
{
"price": 1.12,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "501731789730665321",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:56.733802Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:21:05.807912Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "510738989041206934",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:21:05.807912Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "518620288314199036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:59.596587Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "506235389470432668",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:59.596587Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "525375635594607271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:35.068657Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "518620288314800704",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:35.068657Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.77 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.14 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.14 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $1.05 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.03 Mint Fan 12.0% $0.98 | $1.77 +123.5% | $0.99 +24.9% | 70.0% | +35.6% | $0.79 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 12.0% $3.33 Royal Baroque 12.0% $2.64 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $2.28 Reef Grief 12.0% $2.21 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.77 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.14 | $3.33 +119.1% | $1.81 +18.9% | 58.0% | +44.5% | $1.52 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.78 Cobalt Paisley 8.0% $1.14 Mint Fan 8.0% $1.06 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $1.05 Royal Baroque 8.0% $1.05 Reef Grief 8.0% $1.03 | $1.78 +124.7% | $0.94 +19.0% | 70.0% | +31.9% | $0.79 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.77 Cobalt Paisley 6.0% $1.14 Royal Baroque 6.0% $1.14 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $1.05 Reef Grief 6.0% $1.02 Mint Fan 6.0% $0.98 | $1.77 +107.7% | $0.98 +15.4% | 65.0% | +23.8% | $0.85 | — |