The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Zubastick
2x $0.66
Bock Blocks
2x $1.53
Exchanger
1x $0.70
Co-Processor
2x $1.30
Facility Negative
3x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden
20.0% $55.76
Random Access
20.0% $19.60
Core Breach
20.0% $8.54
Electrum
8.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
8.0% $5.02
Galigator
8.0% $3.31
Max Win
$55.76 (+248.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.52 (+15.8%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+121.6%
Cost
$16.00
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $16.00
Ask Price EV $18.52 (+15.8%)
Bid Price EV $18.14 (+13.4%)
Ask Profit $2.52 (+15.8%)
Bid Profit $2.14 (+13.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.38 (+2.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.52
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.14
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $55.76 (+248.5%)
Worst Case $3.20 (-80.0%)
Volatility +121.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$21.68
Avg Loss -$10.25
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.20 (-80.0%)
Std Dev $19.46
Avg Norm Float 0.0998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 143h 7m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Minimal Wear
$1.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.78 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 15S //TOTAL COST $16.00 //ASK PRICE EV $18.52 //BID PRICE EV $18.14 //ASK PROFIT $2.52 (+15.8%) //BID PROFIT $2.14 (+13.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +121.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$55.76
+$39.76
+248.5%
$55.39
+$39.39
+246.2%
$0.37
0.7%
—
WIN
20.0%
$19.60
+$3.60
+22.5%
$19.55
+$3.55
+22.2%
$0.05
0.3%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$8.54
-$7.46
-46.6%
$8.05
-$7.95
-49.7%
$0.49
5.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$7.00
-$9.00
-56.3%
$5.93
-$10.07
-62.9%
$1.07
15.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$5.02
-$10.98
-68.6%
$3.97
-$12.03
-75.2%
$1.05
20.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.31
-$12.69
-79.3%
$3.14
-$12.86
-80.4%
$0.17
5.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.26
-$12.74
-79.6%
$3.12
-$12.88
-80.5%
$0.14
4.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.20
-$12.80
-80.0%
$3.08
-$12.92
-80.8%
$0.12
3.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.049905,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.6015,
"optimistic_value": 19.57,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:23:35.944585Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.069867,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 55.757,
"optimistic_value": 55.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 55.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 8.536,
"optimistic_value": 8.48,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 8.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:14:51.670949Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.3139999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 3.3,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:38.796612Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.257,
"optimistic_value": 3.25,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:43.045523Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.1975000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 3.18,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:09.206793Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8d305e7535a5eb9cc8e95541",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "492724590626363049",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:40.662896Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "632334745617362111",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:40.662896Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "523123888072436950",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:48.381785Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857689862497968",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:48.381785Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "505109489448960284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:45.253092Z"
},
{
"price": 1.3,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "762930893774707950",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:52.002930Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "493850490550403560",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:46.191905Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "511864091802328281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:16.916641Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "491598690699301658",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:16.916641Z"
},
{
"price": 2.78,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "518620235869057900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:16.916641Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:4+collection-set-nuke-2:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.51 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.94 | $4.51 +99.7% | $2.89 +27.9% | 56.0% | +39.5% | $2.26 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 20.0% $55.76 Core Breach 20.0% $29.13 Random Access 20.0% $19.60 Electrum 8.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 8.0% $12.97 Galigator 8.0% $11.37 | $55.76 +131.4% | $26.02 +7.9% | 40.0% | +61.7% | $24.10 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.51 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.95 | $4.51 +98.0% | $2.96 +29.6% | 58.7% | +38.7% | $2.28 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.51 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.95 | $4.51 +100.6% | $2.85 +26.5% | 53.3% | +39.4% | $2.25 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.94 Amberline 16.0% $1.75 | $4.11 +108.7% | $2.45 +24.2% | 54.7% | +40.7% | $1.97 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 13.3% $4.51 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.94 | $4.51 +99.7% | $2.78 +23.0% | 50.7% | +39.1% | $2.26 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 10.0% $19.77 Core Breach 10.0% $8.54 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $8.25 Electrum 14.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 14.0% $5.02 Galigator 14.0% $3.32 | $19.77 +258.2% | $6.71 +21.5% | 44.0% | +80.3% | $5.52 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 3.3% $55.76 Core Breach 3.3% $29.13 Random Access 3.3% $19.77 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.37 | $55.76 +326.6% | $15.00 +14.8% | 28.0% | +63.8% | $13.07 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  15.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  23.3% $150.19 Remote Control  15.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  23.3% $40.34 Kintsugi  23.3% $38.39 | $418.56 +305.3% | $130.41 +26.3% | 38.3% | +124.8% | $103.27 | — |