The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Bock Blocks
2x $0.23
Dark Polymer
1x $0.27
Fragment
1x $0.28
Co-Processor
3x $0.17
Exchanger
3x $0.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Random Access
20.0% $4.51
Electrum
8.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
20.0% $3.34
Firebreathing
8.0% $2.79
Galigator
8.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
8.0% $1.98
Max Win
$4.51 (+105.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.90 (+31.7%)
Win %
56.0%
Volatility
+51.4%
Cost
$2.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.20
Ask Price EV $2.90 (+31.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.62 (+18.9%)
Ask Profit $0.70 (+31.7%)
Bid Profit $0.42 (+18.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.28 (+12.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.70
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.42
Risk
Win Probability 56.0%
Loss Probability 44.0%
Best Case $4.51 (+105.2%)
Worst Case $1.51 (-31.5%)
Volatility +51.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$1.59
Avg Loss -$0.44
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.51 (-31.5%)
Std Dev $1.13
Avg Norm Float 0.2939
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 142h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 27S //TOTAL COST $2.20 //ASK PRICE EV $2.90 //BID PRICE EV $2.62 //ASK PROFIT $0.70 (+31.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.42 (+18.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 56.0% //BEST CASE $4.51 //VOLATILITY +51.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$4.51
+$2.31
+105.2%
$4.05
+$1.85
+84.1%
$0.46
10.3%
—
BIG WIN
8.0%
$4.11
+$1.91
+86.9%
$3.61
+$1.41
+64.1%
$0.50
12.2%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$3.34
+$1.14
+51.7%
$3.22
+$1.02
+46.4%
$0.12
3.5%
—
WIN
8.0%
$2.79
+$0.59
+26.7%
$2.32
+$0.12
+5.5%
$0.47
16.8%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$2.19
-$0.01
-0.6%
$1.74
-$0.46
-20.9%
$0.45
20.4%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$1.98
-$0.22
-10.1%
$1.63
-$0.57
-25.9%
$0.35
17.6%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$1.75
-$0.45
-20.3%
$1.63
-$0.57
-25.9%
$0.12
7.0%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$1.51
-$0.69
-31.5%
$1.44
-$0.76
-34.5%
$0.07
4.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.146955,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 4.5135,
"optimistic_value": 4.51,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 4.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:06.380116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.205737,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 3.337,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 3.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T02:38:41.005343Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.29391,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 1.507,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:43.867375Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.29391,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.29391,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.29391,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.29391,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7525,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:43.848619Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.29391,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.9769999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.97,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:28.440393Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8d305e7535a5eb9cc8e95541",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857689862500416",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:16.401063Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375688036671415",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:16.401063Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "526501587737529269",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:18:54.742691Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "512990789044719455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:23.575318Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "493850490550217836",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:58.727224Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "527627487624170852",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:58.727224Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "526501587737192633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:23.534912Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "508487136896913986",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:23.534912Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "525375688036511467",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:23.534912Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "496101493268329235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:58.727224Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:4+collection-set-nuke-2:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden 20.0% $55.76 Random Access 20.0% $19.60 Core Breach 20.0% $8.54 Electrum 8.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 8.0% $5.02 Galigator 8.0% $3.28 | $55.76 +235.3% | $18.52 +11.4% | 40.0% | +111.1% | $16.63 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 20.0% $55.76 Core Breach 20.0% $29.13 Random Access 20.0% $19.60 Electrum 8.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 8.0% $12.97 Galigator 8.0% $11.12 | $55.76 +132.1% | $26.00 +8.2% | 40.0% | +62.0% | $24.02 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 13.3% $4.51 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +113.9% | $2.79 +32.0% | 62.7% | +41.6% | $2.11 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.51 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +109.0% | $2.84 +31.4% | 63.3% | +41.1% | $2.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.51 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.94 | $4.51 +98.8% | $2.95 +29.8% | 58.7% | +39.1% | $2.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 10.0% $4.51 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +110.9% | $2.73 +27.6% | 62.0% | +40.3% | $2.14 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 3.3% $4.51 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 3.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +109.0% | $2.62 +21.2% | 60.7% | +37.3% | $2.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 6.7% $4.51 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +103.3% | $2.67 +20.5% | 45.3% | +37.8% | $2.22 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  15.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  23.3% $150.19 Remote Control  15.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  23.3% $40.06 Kintsugi  23.3% $39.12 | $418.56 +317.9% | $130.52 +30.3% | 38.3% | +128.6% | $100.15 | — |