The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Bock Blocks
3x $2.14
Fragment
1x $2.56
Facility Negative
3x $2.27
Exchanger
3x $2.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden
20.0% $55.76
Core Breach
20.0% $29.13
Random Access
20.0% $19.60
Electrum
8.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
8.0% $12.97
Galigator
8.0% $11.37
Max Win
$55.76 (+131.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$26.02 (+7.9%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+67.2%
Cost
$24.10
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $24.10
Ask Price EV $26.02 (+7.9%)
Bid Price EV $25.29 (+5.0%)
Ask Profit $1.92 (+7.9%)
Bid Profit $1.19 (+5.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.72 (+3.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.92
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.19
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $55.76 (+131.4%)
Worst Case $9.90 (-58.9%)
Volatility +67.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$18.34
Avg Loss -$9.04
Bottom 5% Outcome $9.90 (-58.9%)
Std Dev $16.18
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 143h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.20 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.21 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$2.56 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Factory New
$2.50 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Factory New
$2.55 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.78 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 25S //TOTAL COST $24.10 //ASK PRICE EV $26.02 //BID PRICE EV $25.29 //ASK PROFIT $1.92 (+7.9%) //BID PROFIT $1.19 (+5.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +67.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$55.76
+$31.66
+131.4%
$55.39
+$31.29
+129.8%
$0.37
0.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$29.13
+$5.03
+20.9%
$27.72
+$3.62
+15.0%
$1.41
4.8%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$19.60
-$4.50
-18.7%
$19.55
-$4.55
-18.9%
$0.05
0.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$19.50
-$4.60
-19.1%
$17.32
-$6.78
-28.1%
$2.18
11.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$12.97
-$11.13
-46.2%
$11.57
-$12.53
-52.0%
$1.40
10.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$11.37
-$12.73
-52.8%
$10.69
-$13.41
-55.6%
$0.68
6.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$10.24
-$13.86
-57.5%
$10.09
-$14.01
-58.1%
$0.15
1.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$9.90
-$14.20
-58.9%
$9.86
-$14.24
-59.1%
$0.04
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.034965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.6015,
"optimistic_value": 19.57,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:23:35.944585Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.048951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 55.757,
"optimistic_value": 55.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 55.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 29.132,
"optimistic_value": 28.67,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 27.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:17.468968Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.370000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 11.3,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:53.281113Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.2405,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:00.785032Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 9.897,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:20.938989Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8d305e7535a5eb9cc8e95541",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "630083017705272354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:48.381785Z"
},
{
"price": 2.2,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375688036676887",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:48.381785Z"
},
{
"price": 2.21,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857637418052784",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:48.381785Z"
},
{
"price": 2.56,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "498354089952808447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:11.596786Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "511864091802328281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:16.916641Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "491598690699301658",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:16.916641Z"
},
{
"price": 2.5,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "526501535294375657",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:01.946752Z"
},
{
"price": 2.55,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "490472738291788659",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:01.946752Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "508487023591186646",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:01.946752Z"
},
{
"price": 2.78,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "518620235869057900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:16.916641Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:4+collection-set-nuke-2:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.51 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.94 | $4.51 +99.7% | $2.89 +27.9% | 56.0% | +39.5% | $2.26 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden 20.0% $55.76 Random Access 20.0% $19.60 Core Breach 20.0% $8.54 Electrum 8.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 8.0% $5.02 Galigator 8.0% $3.31 | $55.76 +248.5% | $18.52 +15.8% | 40.0% | +115.4% | $16.00 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.51 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.95 | $4.51 +98.0% | $2.96 +29.6% | 58.7% | +38.7% | $2.28 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.51 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.95 | $4.51 +100.6% | $2.85 +26.5% | 53.3% | +39.4% | $2.25 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.94 Amberline 16.0% $1.75 | $4.11 +108.7% | $2.45 +24.2% | 54.7% | +40.7% | $1.97 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 13.3% $4.51 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.94 | $4.51 +99.7% | $2.78 +23.0% | 50.7% | +39.1% | $2.26 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 10.0% $19.77 Core Breach 10.0% $8.54 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $8.25 Electrum 14.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 14.0% $5.02 Galigator 14.0% $3.32 | $19.77 +258.2% | $6.71 +21.5% | 44.0% | +80.3% | $5.52 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 3.3% $55.76 Core Breach 3.3% $29.13 Random Access 3.3% $19.77 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.37 | $55.76 +326.6% | $15.00 +14.8% | 28.0% | +63.8% | $13.07 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  15.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  23.3% $150.19 Remote Control  15.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  23.3% $40.34 Kintsugi  23.3% $38.39 | $418.56 +305.3% | $130.41 +26.3% | 38.3% | +124.8% | $103.27 | — |