The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Prototype
1x $0.48
Tom Cat
1x $0.50
Blue Ply
1x $1.09
Royal Baroque
4x $1.57
Yeti Camo
1x $1.91
Reef Grief
2x $2.02
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $38.92
Acid Etched
6.0% $34.68
Royal Guard
35.0% $13.46
Enforcer
6.0% $9.50
Darkwing
6.0% $9.41
Apocalypto
6.0% $9.34
Max Win
$38.92 (+69.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$22.62 (-1.4%)
Win %
41.0%
Volatility
+57.6%
Cost
$22.94
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $22.94
Ask Price EV $22.62 (-1.4%)
Bid Price EV $20.69 (-9.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.32 (-1.4%)
Bid Profit $-2.25 (-9.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.93 (+8.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.32
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.25
Risk
Win Probability 41.0%
Loss Probability 59.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+69.7%)
Worst Case $8.50 (-62.9%)
Volatility +57.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 59.0%
Avg Win +$15.36
Avg Loss -$11.22
Bottom 5% Outcome $8.50 (-62.9%)
Std Dev $13.21
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 151h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.09 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.91 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.02 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 52M 38S //TOTAL COST $22.94 //ASK PRICE EV $22.62 //BID PRICE EV $20.69 //ASK PROFIT $-0.32 (-1.4%) //BID PROFIT $-2.25 (-9.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 41.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +57.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$38.92
+$15.98
+69.7%
$34.38
+$11.44
+49.9%
$4.54
11.7%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$34.68
+$11.74
+51.2%
$32.11
+$9.17
+40.0%
$2.56
7.4%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$13.46
-$9.48
-41.3%
$13.24
-$9.70
-42.3%
$0.22
1.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.50
-$13.44
-58.6%
$8.94
-$14.00
-61.0%
$0.56
5.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.41
-$13.53
-59.0%
$9.24
-$13.70
-59.7%
$0.17
1.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.34
-$13.60
-59.3%
$8.74
-$14.20
-61.9%
$0.60
6.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$8.50
-$14.44
-62.9%
$7.96
-$14.98
-65.3%
$0.54
6.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.0524925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.458499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.42,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:59.855993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 34.675,
"optimistic_value": 34.5,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 32.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:31.771580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 9.503,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 8.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:28.781455Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 9.4085,
"optimistic_value": 9.37,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 9.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:50.768725Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.050392799999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.5025,
"optimistic_value": 8.45,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:04.167382Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 9.3375,
"optimistic_value": 9.25,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 8.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:11.504930Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8cc3886560795d7aea9fd640",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "655978715566164233",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:17.973348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:38.252400Z"
},
{
"price": 1.09,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "505109489447933888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:42.134014Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:26.091485Z"
},
{
"price": 1.91,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "524249840858909847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:20.149064Z"
},
{
"price": 2.02,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "518620341243184240",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:31.406376Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "523123940969190454",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:31.406376Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:42.472436Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "503983423966579591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:42.472436Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "506234592363569076",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:42.472436Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.35 Fever Dream 6.0% $2.97 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $1.00 Darkwing 6.0% $0.98 | $18.08 +146.3% | $8.61 +17.4% | 35.0% | +93.8% | $7.34 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.46 Fever Dream 6.0% $8.50 Acid Etched 6.0% $2.34 Darkwing 6.0% $2.29 Apocalypto 6.0% $1.93 | $38.92 +135.5% | $19.35 +17.1% | 35.0% | +86.9% | $16.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.47 Fever Dream 10.0% $2.97 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 10.0% $1.00 Darkwing 10.0% $0.98 | $18.08 +247.0% | $6.58 +26.3% | 50.0% | +127.3% | $5.21 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.47 Fever Dream 8.0% $2.97 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 8.0% $1.00 Darkwing 8.0% $0.98 | $18.08 +199.3% | $7.62 +26.1% | 30.0% | +112.8% | $6.04 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.46 Fever Dream 4.0% $8.50 Acid Etched 4.0% $2.34 Darkwing 4.0% $2.29 Apocalypto 4.0% $1.96 | $38.92 +125.9% | $21.63 +25.5% | 40.0% | +81.8% | $17.23 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.35 Fever Dream 12.0% $2.97 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.00 Darkwing 12.0% $0.98 | $18.08 +309.9% | $5.52 +25.1% | 40.0% | +142.8% | $4.41 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.46 Fever Dream 2.0% $8.50 Acid Etched 2.0% $2.34 Darkwing 2.0% $2.29 Apocalypto 2.0% $1.93 | $38.92 +100.4% | $23.91 +23.1% | 45.0% | +69.8% | $19.42 | — |